Yankees/Red Sox declining players

[Gom]

In light of Bill James's predictions as to who will improve from the Red Sox, I want to pose this fun question.

 

In 2007, which Yankee and Red Sox will have a down year? I don't mean a gradual decline due to age [like how Schilling and Williams declined], rather, who will bomb?

 

In 2006, both Arod and Beckett had a major decline which no one really predicted. Since every Sox fan knows the Yanks and vice versa, I'm curious who you think will have a bad decline for both teams.

 

My guess will be...hmm..this is tougher than I thought, lol...my guess for the Yankees will be Damon. I can see him falling off drastically due to his continued nagging injuries, and I think his power last year was a fluke [i debated this with Posada and Abreau]. For the Sox, I think it will be Schilling. I can see him dropping behind Beckett and Wakefield in the rotation.

 

What are your thoughts?

[BSN07]

I'm a Sox fan and I can see those as very plausable thoughts. I guess Schilling might but if he wins 13-16 games which even when not dominant he could get to 13-15 he wouldn't be considered in that argument. The Sox had alot of down players this year, coco,Tek, Loretta,Beckett,Timlin, Foulke and anyone inside the bullpen except Papelbon wasn't great. So for the Sox a better question might be who bounces back? Plus the Sox have so many openings in the line up there aren't alot of people to choose from. But given the current Roster, I'm gonna guess Wakefield to not be as productive as the team hopes. As for the Yankees( and I promise I'm not being bias) it very well could be any of the ageing players. I see Damon going B. Williams route of decline over the next few years( weak arm nagging injuries). But i'm gonna go out on a limb( please it's just a guess) and say Mo is gonna have a big decline. Don't get me wrong I hate him cause he's been so good for the Yankees, but I also have the upmost respect for him. That said with the injury problems last year and he's not getting younger is it that hard to believe he would drop off from 35-45 saves a year. The only reason I pick him is out of all the players on the Yankees he has the furthest to fall and is one of the ones creeping up in age.Fun topic don't blast me on this I don't pretend to be an expert, just playing along.

[Gom]

I was thinking Mo too, but I love him too much to think so. Blasphemy!

 

LOL!

 

Everyone likes to predict who will do well, I thought it would be fun to try the exact opposite. Thanks for playing along.

[BSN07]

Oh yes def. great subject for debate. Even as a Red Sox fan I hated picking MO, but you can't go on being that dominant forever without some sort of decline. Thanks for not burning me at the stake for saying Mo.

[edge4414]

Giambi for Yanks. Lowell for Sox

[jacksonianmarch]

I would agree with Giambi if he is forced to play 1st for 100+ games. If not, I go with Mussina. I think the yankees resigning him is a bad move.

[Soxfan1]

I think Posada will have a slow year along with Damon.

on the Red sox, I see Varitek coming back from an off year and I see Pena or Pedroia not filling expectations and having an off year.

 

How about Delcarmen? Can this guy come in and be a god relief guy to bring in around the 7th or 8th inning?

[ksushi]

I agree about Damon. Gom, you rub me the wrong way sometimes but I'm going to take that as inevitable given your allegiance. You earned my respect by pointing out Damon might have a down year. *high five*

 

Schilling very well might have a down year, but I have too much respect for Schilling to say that he will. His work ethic and his determination are enough for me to hold my judgement until I see him pitch in 07. This being his last season I believe he will have the best season his age will allow.

 

I think Manny is going to have a down year. If he is still a Sox in 07, look for Manny to hit around .280 with 30ish homers more or less if he plays in a reasonable amount of games. Could possibly do worse than that. His age has to catch up with him eventually.

[Gom]

This thread is more fun than I thought. LOL!

 

I think it is much tougher to predict a bad year for a Sox player since there were more Sox players who had a down year in 2006 than the Yankees.

[Soxfan1]

LOLZ! I CANT BWELIEVE WEE AGWEEE LOLLOL!!!11

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Posada will have a slow year along with Damon.

on the Red sox, I see Varitek coming back from an off year and I see Pena or Pedroia not filling expectations and having an off year.

 

How about Delcarmen? Can this guy come in and be a god relief guy to bring in around the 7th or 8th inning?

 

I think you are seeing the taint in your eyes rather than the reason in your brain. Damon will have a solid yr. Posada is certainly a guy who may decline. My money is on Moose. I see an injury riddled yr with an era a full run higher than it was last yr.

[Gom]

I think you are seeing the taint in your eyes rather than the reason in your brain. Damon will have a solid yr. Posada is certainly a guy who may decline. My money is on Moose. I see an injury riddled yr with an era a full run higher than it was last yr.

 

What about the Sox in decline, jacksonianmarch? This is not just about Yankees in decline.

 

Realize that it could just be a bad year, not an overall decline. Like Beckett and Arod, whom I believe both will rebound.

[jacksonianmarch]

What about the Sox in decline, jacksonianmarch? This is not just about Yankees in decline.

 

Realize that it could just be a bad year, not an overall decline. Like Beckett and Arod, whom I believe both will rebound.

 

The red sox as a whole will decline without any outside help. Sound right? Manny is always a guy who has been picked and over and over again he has shown that wont happen. My money would be on Schilling. He broke down for the first time in his career. His previous injuries were all trauma (broken hand) or twisting something (ankle tendon rupture). He is 40, cannot bring the heat every time like he did 5-6 yrs ago, and he was rather pathetic in July and August, which were the months the sox needed him the most. His K rate dropped a little, and for the first time in his career, he allowed more hits than innings pitched in a season where he pitched more than 100 innings. That spans 14 seasons, so he is declining, he is getting hit harder, and the K rate is dropping. Sounds like a certain lanky lefty at the back of the NYY rotation. I see Schilling being a middle of the rotation or even a back of the rotation guy next yr, as I see Mussina and RJ. The thing is, Beckett and Papelbon will need to step up to compensate, while the yankees already have one young proven ace in Wang and are likely to land another young ace in either Zito or Matsuzaka.

[elsrbueno]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say the following 2 players will have dissapointing seasons:

 

NYY: Wang

 

I'm really not sold on this guy as a top-end pitcher. 226 hits in 214 innings last year and his 3.47 ERA low considering his previous minor league numbers. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but Wang in my mind just doesn't miss enough at bats for me to consider him legitimate. If he keeps pitching well and proving me wrong so be it-- but he's my pick.

 

BOS: Youkilis

This is a hard pick because Crisp, Nixon, Beckett, Varitek, etc all played far below expectations-- Schilling's an easy choice because he wasn't a dominant ace last year. Also, with second, short, and right field undecided, the everyday players are down to Manny, Ortiz, Crisp, Lowell, Tek, Youkilis. I honestly think we'll get more of the same from Ortiz and Manny, and that Crisp and Tek will improve from last year. So, the corner positions are the two with potential. I think Lowell's been around long enough where he won't have a problem with pitchers figuring him out and he'll pretty much match his 2006 numbers in 2007, which leaves Youkilis. He's an average player who put up average numbers in 2006, but with just one full season under his belt, this will be the season he either proves he can make the necessary adjustments to be a career .300 hitter or he bombs because pitchers figure out how to get him out. His high strikeout totals worry me especially for a non-power hitter, so he's my pick to dissapoint.

[Gom]

Great post, elsrbueno. I love the way you went out on a limb to pick Wang and Youkilis, and then backed it up. I love it!

 

Keep 'em coming, boys!

[rician blast]

I think Posada will have a slow year along with Damon.

on the Red sox, I see Varitek coming back from an off year and I see Pena or Pedroia not filling expectations and having an off year.

 

 

 

I think whore-hey will be fine and I think Damon will have another good year. I'm interest in seeing how Matsui does this year...will Mr. Consistency be AS consistent as he has been?

 

For the Sox, I worry about Tek's bat, too many of his ABs at the plate this year were horrendous.

 

As for Pena, I don't think he'll fall off...rather I personally don't have high expectations for him...I'm on the fence with Pedroia, last year is too short a resume to judge him on, but in the limited times I saw him I wasn't overly impressed. I'm hoping the hype on him has been accurate and he'll bust out.

[castigs850]

i was thinking wang for the yanks and dare i say it.. papelbon for the sox? just because they both have tremendous expectations both very young and papelbon could be hurt

 

plus its no fun picking people like tek who is at that age where decline is natural

[Gom]

I agree Castigs850. However, I don't think Papelbon is a good choice due to injury. Most of baseball thinks he will drop off due to his shoulder problems.

 

So far, I love the Wang/Rivera call. Haven't heard one I love from the Red Sox.