Sox's 2007 first baseman.

[jsinger121]

What about inviting Bagwell to camp now that his Astro contract is up?

 

That's something I would take a flyer on but it would never be a guaranteed contract. It all depends on the condition of his arthritic shoulder.

[ksushi]

Bagwell is also a mess. What is with the attraction to old hurting players? Carlos lee is available and I think the Sox should invest in him. Move Youk back to 3rd because he does have value, trade lowell for an RP. Its a nice series of moves.

[ORS]

If we are going to get an oft injured 1B option, what about Nomah? Dude can still rake, and I have a feeling he'd be healthier than either of Sweeney or Bagwell.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nomar would never come back after the way he was let go.

[SuperManny]

But what are you controlling ... ? He's not that good. He's not as good as Kevin Millar was in his best days.

 

Wait how is Youk not as good as Lowell? Lowell has one year left on his deal at more money than Youk will make in the next 3-4 years.

 

2006 Stats

Youk .279/.381/.429/.810

Lowell .284/.339/.475/.814

 

So pretty much the same average and OPS. Big difference between the two is OBP and SLG. Youk is on base more and Lowell hits for more power. I would rather have Youk who is younger, cheaper, under the Sox control for longer, and makes less outs. Youk is perfect for the #2 spot in the lineup while Lowell is perfect for somewhere between 6-7 in the lineup. Its nice that Lowell hits for more power but he makes a ton of outs and a .339 OBP isn't very good at all. Theres a reason that Youk has more trade value and its because he's more valuable. Hold on to the league min guy and dump the overpaid veterain.

[SuperManny]

Nomar would never come back after the way he was let go.

 

Clemens seemed to have been willing to possibly come back so unless you know Nomar personally I don't think you can say anything definitively. He has spoke well about Boston and the Sox since he left and said he would never sign with the Yankees because of his time in Boston. If the Sox made him the best offer I think he would at least consider it.

[a700hitter]

Wait how is Youk not as good as Lowell? Lowell has one year left on his deal at more money than Youk will make in the next 3-4 years.

 

2006 Stats

Youk .279/.381/.429/.810

Lowell .284/.339/.475/.814

 

So pretty much the same average and OPS. Big difference between the two is OBP and SLG. Youk is on base more and Lowell hits for more power. I would rather have Youk who is younger, cheaper, under the Sox control for longer, and makes less outs. Youk is perfect for the #2 spot in the lineup while Lowell is perfect for somewhere between 6-7 in the lineup. Its nice that Lowell hits for more power but he makes a ton of outs and a .339 OBP isn't very good at all. Theres a reason that Youk has more trade value and its because he's more valuable. Hold on to the league min guy and dump the overpaid veterain.

Read what you quoted. I was comparing Youk to Millar not Lowell. Youk and Lowell are about the same offensively. Neither lights the world on fire, but lowell has more power. Lowell is a much better fielder. Youk has more trade value than Lowell because he is younger and cheaper...period. Trade the guy with more trade value and keep lowell for one more year.

[a700hitter]

Bagwell is also a mess. What is with the attraction to old hurting players? Carlos lee is available and I think the Sox should invest in him. Move Youk back to 3rd because he does have value' date=' trade lowell for an RP. Its a nice series of moves.[/quote']Trade the guy that has more trade value and keep the better 3B Lowell for one more year. You won't get much of anything for Lowell. Hell he had to be forced on us a year ago. I don't think his rebound year was so great that he will attract big trade interest because of his contract.

[Gom]

Trade the guy that has more trade value and keep the better 3B Lowell for one more year. You won't get much of anything for Lowell. Hell he had to be forced on us a year ago. I don't think his rebound year was so great that he will attract big trade interest because of his contract.

 

Agreed. Finally, someone who gets it, lol.

[MANNYHOF24]

i wouldnt mind Nomar at first, as long as we gad a back up plan

[SuperManny]

Trade the guy that has more trade value and keep the better 3B Lowell for one more year. You won't get much of anything for Lowell. Hell he had to be forced on us a year ago. I don't think his rebound year was so great that he will attract big trade interest because of his contract.

 

I would rather keep the guy with more value than trade him. Paps and Papi have more value too but I woudln't go trading people because they have more value. You can get some RP for Lowell so go make the move which helps the pen, saves some $$ and spend it on FA pitching which the team needs. Honestly, I wouldn't have a problem with keeping both Lowell and Youk next year but if one needs to go it has to be Lowell. If you trade Youk then after next season you have no 1B or 3B since Lowell will have left unless he's extended.

[SuperManny]

i wouldnt mind Nomar at first' date=' as long as we gad a back up plan[/quote']

 

Nomar is the best 1B on the market. He's a long shot for obvious reasons but I don't think the Sox should dismiss the idea just because of that. Make him an offer and see what happens. It wouldn't kill the team to talk to his agent and see if theres even a possibility.

[a700hitter]

I would rather keep the guy with more value than trade him. Paps and Papi have more value too but I woudln't go trading people because they have more value. You can get some RP for Lowell so go make the move which helps the pen' date=' saves some $$ and spend it on FA pitching which the team needs. Honestly, I wouldn't have a problem with keeping both Lowell and Youk next year but if one needs to go it has to be Lowell. If you trade Youk then after next season you have no 1B or 3B since Lowell will have left unless he's extended.[/quote']They are essentially about the same in productivity, except Lowell has more power and he is a much better fielder than Youk. By keeping Lowell, they'd be keeping the better player for '07. Youk's is only more valuable on the trade market because of his age and low salary. Why would we want to keep the inferior 3B and trade the better 3B who has less trade appeal and will bring back less in a trade?:dunno:

[SuperManny]

They are essentially about the same in productivity' date=' except Lowell has more power and he is a much better fielder than Youk. By keeping Lowell, they'd be keeping the better player for '07. Youk's is only more valuable on the trade market because of his age and low salary. Why would we want to keep the inferior 3B and trade the better 3B who has less trade appeal and will bring back less in a trade?:dunno:[/quote']

 

Because Youk is better for the future and its only your opinion that Lowell is going to be better in 2007. Last year was the first year Youk played a full season and in the 2nd half he fatigued and struggled down the stretch. In 2008 and beyond Youk is definitely going to be the better option and I'm looking more long term than just 2007 (although I think Youk will be better in 2007). I don't think Youk is much of a downgrade at 3B to be honest, Youk saved Lowell countless errors that Lowell would throw into the dirt. The fact that there is a $8M difference in salary is also more value to Youk IMO, if you move Lowell then thats another FA you can afford to bring in that you couldn't if you moved Youk. Also, OBP is more important than slugging IMO since you only get 27 outs per game and Lowell makes a lot more of them than Youk. I also think Youk is perfect for the Sox since they have no real leadoff hitter or #2 hitter while they are full of middle to bottom of the order hitters like Lowell.

[a700hitter]

Because Youk is better for the future and its only your opinion that Lowell is going to be better in 2007. Last year was the first year Youk played a full season and in the 2nd half he fatigued and struggled down the stretch. In 2008 and beyond Youk is definitely going to be the better option and I'm looking more long term than just 2007 (although I think Youk will be better in 2007). I don't think Youk is much of a downgrade at 3B to be honest' date=' Youk saved Lowell countless errors that Lowell would throw into the dirt. The fact that there is a $8M difference in salary is also more value to Youk IMO, if you move Lowell then thats another FA you can afford to bring in that you couldn't if you moved Youk. Also, OBP is more important than slugging IMO since you only get 27 outs per game and Lowell makes a lot more of them than Youk. I also think Youk is perfect for the Sox since they have no real leadoff hitter or #2 hitter while they are full of middle to bottom of the order hitters like Lowell.[/quote']Youk's ceiling is not very high, and Lowell is a much better fielder than Youk, not just a slight upgrade. You are obviously a big Youk fan.

[ORS]

Because Youk is better for the future and its only your opinion that Lowell is going to be better in 2007. Last year was the first year Youk played a full season and in the 2nd half he fatigued and struggled down the stretch. In 2008 and beyond Youk is definitely going to be the better option and I'm looking more long term than just 2007 (although I think Youk will be better in 2007). I don't think Youk is much of a downgrade at 3B to be honest' date=' Youk saved Lowell countless errors that Lowell would throw into the dirt. The fact that there is a $8M difference in salary is also more value to Youk IMO, if you move Lowell then thats another FA you can afford to bring in that you couldn't if you moved Youk. Also, OBP is more important than slugging IMO since you only get 27 outs per game and Lowell makes a lot more of them than Youk. I also think Youk is perfect for the Sox since they have no real leadoff hitter or #2 hitter while they are full of middle to bottom of the order hitters like Lowell. [/quote']

Youk has more value, Lowell has more talent. I'll take the talent for another year and trade the value. Youk, IMO, should not be a long-term option at 3B. His has the skill set of a masher, but he doesn't mash.

[SuperManny]

Youk's ceiling is not very high' date=' and Lowell is a much better fielder than Youk, not just a slight upgrade. You are obviously a big Youk fan.[/quote']

 

I'm a big fan of high OBP which Lowell isn't. When the Sox were the offensive jugernaut the past few years it was off of high OBP with two big boppers. They got away from this with Lowell and AGonz this year which is why the Sox fell to something like 8th in the AL in offense instead of being #1 in baseball. The Sox don't have anyone with high OBP besides Youk that they can put into the top of the order. OBP is more important than SLG because when you lower OBP you are taking away AB's from other players in the lineup by making more outs. I am a big fan of Youk because of his high OBP, I'm a fan of OBP. The Sox desperately need to put high OBP guys in front of Manny and Papi for when they hit HR so more runs score.

[ORS]

What made the Sox offense so potent the previous years was that the high OBP guys in front of the big two were at premium positions. Damon, Walker, and Bellhorn played up the middle. Youk's OBP is great, but at a corner, he needs some power to go along with it or they are losing out on a premium offensive position.

 

OBP is important, but it's not more important than extra bases (SLG). SLG correlates to runs scored more than OBP does. Now, because of being on different scales, one point of OBP is worth about 1.5 points of SLG. That said, SLG's variance is greater so one point fluctuations are rare.

[SuperManny]

OBP is important, but it's not more important than extra bases (SLG). SLG correlates to runs scored more than OBP does. Now, because of being on different scales, one point of OBP is worth about 1.5 points of SLG. That said, SLG's variance is greater so one point fluctuations are rare.

 

Wait, you just said OBP is worth 1.5 points of SLG (which is what I thought it was) and then say that SLG is more important. I was under the impression that OBP was more important since outs are such a rare commodity in the game.

 

Since Youk and Lowell's only real difference offensively is OBP and SLG then wouldn't that make Youk more valuable than Lowell? In terms of roster construction I also think Youk is more valuable since the Sox don't really have any other high OBP guys to put at the top of the order. Add in the fact that the money saved on Lowell can be used to bring in another FA I don't see how Lowell is more valuable.

 

Another thing to keep in mind is the available players for 1B that would replace Youk. Who are the Sox going to put at 1B next year that will be an improvement over Youk and at what cost? The difference in VORP between Youk and Lowell was about 1 and your comparing Youk to all 1B which is a more power position than 3B. If Youk was a 3B this year he would have had a higher VORP than Lowell.

[jacksonianmarch]

What made the Sox offense so potent the previous years was that the high OBP guys in front of the big two were at premium positions. Damon, Walker, and Bellhorn played up the middle. Youk's OBP is great, but at a corner, he needs some power to go along with it or they are losing out on a premium offensive position.

 

OBP is important, but it's not more important than extra bases (SLG). SLG correlates to runs scored more than OBP does. Now, because of being on different scales, one point of OBP is worth about 1.5 points of SLG. That said, SLG's variance is greater so one point fluctuations are rare.

 

I dont think position matters so long as you make up a solid lineup. Take a look at the 2004 lineup.

 

1. Damon- .304 20HR 94RBI 123R .380OBP .477SLG .857OPS

2. Bellhorn- .264 17HR 82RBI 93R .373OBP .444SLG .817OPS

3. Ortiz - .301 41HR 139RBI 94R .380OBP .603SLG .983OPS

4. Ramirez- .308 43HR 130RBI 108R .397OBP .613SLG 1.020OPS

5. Varitek- .296 18HR 73RBI 67R .390OBP .482SLG .872OPS

6. Millar- .297 18HR 74RBI 74R .383OBP .474SLG .857OPS

7. Nixon- .315 6HR 23RBI 24R .377OBP .510SLG .887OPS (149AB)

8. Cabrera- .294 6HR 31RBI 33R .320OBP .465SLG .785OPS(228AB)

9. Mueller- .283 12HR 57RBI 75R .365OBP .446SLG .812OPS

 

the bolded parts are why this team was so damn good. Up and down the entire lineup was power and on base ability as proven by the .800+ OPS in every position (almost in the terms of OCab). There were no breaks. The 2006 version looked like this and the bold is comparison to that spot int the lineup in 04

 

1. Youkilis .810OPS translated to 100R, but down from 04

2. Loretta .706OPS translated to 75 runs. In the 2 hole in front of Manny Ortez, that is not useful, way down from 04

3. Ortiz 1.049 up from 04

4. Manny 1.058OPS up from 04

5. Varitek .725OPS way down from 04

6. Nixon .767OPS down from 04

7. Lowell .814OPS down from 04

8. Pena .838OPS up from 04

9. Crisp .702 way down from 04

 

Ortiz and Manny did much better in OPS than they did in 04. The 8 spot, when WMP was there, was mildly better than Cabrera's OPS was. Other than that, the 1,2,5,6,7,and 9 spots were not as productive, not even close. This is why the O was so anemic this yr. The 04 sox proved that you dont need superstars at every spot. They had 2 superstars and the rest were guys who had enough power and RBI potential to be a threat, and enough OBP ability to be there when the big guys got up. They missed that this yr. Loretta and Crisp were weak breaks in the lineup. Varitek was a shell of himself. Ditto for Nixon. Lowell and Youk are the kind of guys that the sox had previously, very comparable to Mueller and Millar of 04. But you need a lineup full of those guys to be seriously competitive. On an island alone, they will get exposed.

[ORS]

Wait, you just said OBP is worth 1.5 points of SLG (which is what I thought it was) and then say that SLG is more important. I was under the impression that OBP was more important since outs are such a rare commodity in the game.

 

Since Youk and Lowell's only real difference offensively is OBP and SLG then wouldn't that make Youk more valuable than Lowell? In terms of roster construction I also think Youk is more valuable since the Sox don't really have any other high OBP guys to put at the top of the order. Add in the fact that the money saved on Lowell can be used to bring in another FA I don't see how Lowell is more valuable.

 

Another thing to keep in mind is the available players for 1B that would replace Youk. Who are the Sox going to put at 1B next year that will be an improvement over Youk and at what cost? The difference in VORP between Youk and Lowell was about 1 and your comparing Youk to all 1B which is a more power position than 3B. If Youk was a 3B this year he would have had a higher VORP than Lowell.

Yes, in the case of Youk and Lowell, Youk is more valuable offensively due to similar OPS but higher OBP for Youk. I meant in the general sense don't discount SLG. It does correlate higher to runs scored, and due to it being on a 4.000 scale, the variance is larger, meaning fewer small differentials when upgrading the SLG at a position.

 

So, Youk would produce a higher VORP at 3B. Lowell was good for 77 EqR, and Youk was good for 85. However, Youk was only 4 runs above average at 1B, while Lowell was 18 runs above average at 3B. I suspect Youk would be about average at 3B, which makes Lowell about 1 win (10 total runs) better.

 

My point about showing the importance of SLG was that Youk plays a corner spot. That is where you find your SLG, and Youk just doesn't bring it. A .800-ish OPS just isn't enough from 3B, IMO, and it isn't anywhere near good enough at 1B. Youk has already hit prime age, so increases in power are possible, but unlikely. That is why I don't consider him a long-term answer at that position, so, since he hase more value due to salary, he is who I would move.

[scaffolds]

Don't understand the love affair for Youkilis, Lowell isn't only a better defense third baseman, but has a better range, a Gold Glover, in addition to be the better hitter of the two. Lowell may only be the Sox's starting third baseman for one year, but Youkilis isn't his replacement Chad Spann.

[ORS]

 

I dont think position matters so long as you make up a solid lineup. Take a look at the 2004 lineup.

 

1. Damon- .304 20HR 94RBI 123R .380OBP .477SLG .857OPS

2. Bellhorn- .264 17HR 82RBI 93R .373OBP .444SLG .817OPS

3. Ortiz - .301 41HR 139RBI 94R .380OBP .603SLG .983OPS

4. Ramirez- .308 43HR 130RBI 108R .397OBP .613SLG 1.020OPS

5. Varitek- .296 18HR 73RBI 67R .390OBP .482SLG .872OPS

6. Millar- .297 18HR 74RBI 74R .383OBP .474SLG .857OPS

7. Nixon- .315 6HR 23RBI 24R .377OBP .510SLG .887OPS (149AB)

8. Cabrera- .294 6HR 31RBI 33R .320OBP .465SLG .785OPS(228AB)

9. Mueller- .283 12HR 57RBI 75R .365OBP .446SLG .812OPS

 

the bolded parts are why this team was so damn good. Up and down the entire lineup was power and on base ability as proven by the .800+ OPS in every position (almost in the terms of OCab). There were no breaks. The 2006 version looked like this and the bold is comparison to that spot int the lineup in 04

 

1. Youkilis .810OPS translated to 100R, but down from 04

2. Loretta .706OPS translated to 75 runs. In the 2 hole in front of Manny Ortez, that is not useful, way down from 04

3. Ortiz 1.049 up from 04

4. Manny 1.058OPS up from 04

5. Varitek .725OPS way down from 04

6. Nixon .767OPS down from 04

7. Lowell .814OPS down from 04

8. Pena .838OPS up from 04

9. Crisp .702 way down from 04

 

Ortiz and Manny did much better in OPS than they did in 04. The 8 spot, when WMP was there, was mildly better than Cabrera's OPS was. Other than that, the 1,2,5,6,7,and 9 spots were not as productive, not even close. This is why the O was so anemic this yr. The 04 sox proved that you dont need superstars at every spot. They had 2 superstars and the rest were guys who had enough power and RBI potential to be a threat, and enough OBP ability to be there when the big guys got up. They missed that this yr. Loretta and Crisp were weak breaks in the lineup. Varitek was a shell of himself. Ditto for Nixon. Lowell and Youk are the kind of guys that the sox had previously, very comparable to Mueller and Millar of 04. But you need a lineup full of those guys to be seriously competitive. On an island alone, they will get exposed.

I agree. However, the up-the-middle spots were above league average, which was my point. If your corners are going to be average, as the '04 corners were, then you need to be strong offensively up the middle, which the '04 team was.

[example1]

What made the Sox offense so potent the previous years was that the high OBP guys in front of the big two were at premium positions. Damon, Walker, and Bellhorn played up the middle. Youk's OBP is great, but at a corner, he needs some power to go along with it or they are losing out on a premium offensive position.

 

OBP is important, but it's not more important than extra bases (SLG). SLG correlates to runs scored more than OBP does. Now, because of being on different scales, one point of OBP is worth about 1.5 points of SLG. That said, SLG's variance is greater so one point fluctuations are rare.

 

I think both are strongly correlated with runs though (SLG with a slight lead), and given that both are not always available (i.e., sometmes it is hard to find either) I am very interested in keeping Youkilis around. He's a guaranteed correlate of runs, so to speak, even if he's not the most efficient correlate of runs in the league.

 

A team full of Youkilii type players (who have either a .380 OBP or a .570 SLG) would be very, very good. The kinds of guys it kills us to have in the lineup are Gonzalez, Cora, Kaplar types, as they don't even get a reasonably good average, let alone OBP or SLG. They make up for it in other ways, but I'm not convinced they do enough and I don't think the sox are either.

 

Finally, you're absolutely right about the success of the 03 and 04 teams' offenses. The best offense will start with outstanding production from the middle of the field, including catchers, and above average to tremendous production from the other guys. When you start with a core of corner-type players consisting of a solid Millar and batting-champ Mueller, a .970 OPS trot nixon, HOF Manny Ramirez and a newly emergent David Ortiz you're looking at arguably the best offense in history.

 

It is unrealistic to expect the team to be able to get back to that level without a lot of luck.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. However' date=' the up-the-middle spots were above league average, which was my point. If your corners are going to be average, as the '04 corners were, then you need to be strong offensively up the middle, which the '04 team was.[/quote']

 

In the end, I dont care where the production comes from. If the 2b and ss are the middle of the order hitters and the 1b is the 9 hitter, I dont care. A lineup with 2 big time superstars and a bunch of guys with power and obp ability surrounding them will net you a tough lineup.

[ORS]

In the end' date=' I dont care where the production comes from. If the 2b and ss are the middle of the order hitters and the 1b is the 9 hitter, I dont care. A lineup with 2 big time superstars and a bunch of guys with power and obp ability surrounding them will net you a tough lineup.[/quote']

No doubt. I'm not suggesting they just flat out dump Youkilis. He has value, although I suspect it would have to be in a package and not all by himself. Since I'm not seeing him as a stick at a corner spot, and there isn't much available to upgrade those middle of the field positions in the market, then they ought to try and package him to upgrade his spot.

[scaffolds]

In the end' date=' I dont care where the production comes from. If the 2b and ss are the middle of the order hitters and the 1b is the 9 hitter, I dont care. A lineup with 2 big time superstars and a bunch of guys with power and obp ability surrounding them will net you a tough lineup.[/quote']

 

The point is that is a lot easier to find a production first baseman than to find a middle of the infield that gives production and doesn't hurt you with his defense. In conclusion a winning team besides pitching will have top defense up the middle and a productive first baseman and not a below average production wise first baseman.

[example1]

Don't understand the love affair for Youkilis' date=' Lowell isn't only a better defense third baseman, but has a better range, a Gold Glover, in addition to be the better hitter of the two. Lowell may only be the Sox's starting third baseman for one year, but Youkilis isn't his replacement Chad Spann.[/quote']

 

You mean because Youkilis has a career OBP of .380 or so in the MLB? Spann could be good, and I really hope he is. But Youkilis was the guy everyone was talking about 2 years ago as being the replacement for Bill Mueller; Mueller is gone, Youkilis is here.

 

I tend to look at OPS as my stat of choice with regard to production. I know there are more complex metrics that can be used, but I have yet to have anyone say that it doesn't show some level of production/value, especially when taken into consideration with position and defensive skill, speed, etc.,

 

Here are players in the AL who had OPS within a range from .825 - .775. Youkils had an OPS of .810 so he represents something like the upper-middle of the group.

 

in descending order:

Ramon Hernandez, Emil Brown, Michael Young, Mike Lowell, Mark DeRosa, Kevin Millar, Youkilis, David DeJusus, Nick Markakis, Adrian Beltre, Ichiro Suzuki, Eric Chavez, Craig Monroe, Kenji Johjima, Brandon Inge.

 

That seems about right to me. That seems like a fair group to compare Youkilis to. Given his youth, his cheapness and his positional flexibility this guy either has to get traded for something pretty specal, or he should have a role in boston for a long time. If Bill Mueller is capable of being the 3B on the highest SLG team of all-time, then Youkilis can have a spot somewhere.

 

I feel like people are putting too much emphasis on numbers from this season, which was comprised of a ton of injuries, different lineups and, for youkilis, playing tons of positions and batting up and down the order. In youk I see a guy who could very well have a season or two of hitting above .320, with an OBP of .400 and an OPS up to .950 [EDIT, missed the '9' key].

 

I'm not stuck to keeping him at all costs, but I don't want to throw him into a deal for the deal's sake. He could easily be a big part of many seasons of success for the sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

True, but the problem is not youk's position. It is at 2b, ss, rf, cf, and c (as well as many pitching departments). I think packaging youk to get a .900OPS 1b will still leave you with problems. I am going to put together a list of FAs at each position who have a .800OPS or better just to get a sense of what is out there. Give me a sec.

[example1]

s***, I say try to sign Soriano AND Lee, trade Manny and move Lee to 1B or Soriano to 2B, packaging Pedroia someplace, possibly wth Lowell (in place of cash). I think a lot of Pedroia, but if Soriano can play average defense at 2B he would certainly contribute to the ability to have power up and down the defensive spectrum.