July 21st @ Seattle

[ORS]

Snyder 1-1, 10.03

 

vs.

 

Moyer 3-5, 3.75

 

Today's Theme: THE ORACLE

 

I called Lester a Wild Thing, and he found a little control. I called out Nuke for not adjusting, and he pitches more than throws while allowing no gopher balls. I called out the offense for not hitting, and they plate 6 without Papi or Lowell in the lineup. Am I a mid-50's black woman that likes to smoke cigarettes while baking cookies and asking vague questions?

 

http://matrix.thescarymonkeyshow.com/images/oracle.jpg

 

Well, if I am, let's get on to who needs motivation today. Manny? Ortiz? WMP? Lowell, Youk, Coco? So many choices, but I'm going to shock you with who I pick. Kyle Snyder. I know, I know, that is going out on limb. But, what can I say, I'm a risk taker. And, my suggestion to Kyle is quite simple. He needs to do everything he can to avoid pitching like Kyle Snyder. Do that, and we win.

[riverside sluggers]

Jamie Moyer (21 games vs Boston, 6-10 record with a 6.39 ERA---Career at SAFECO Field in 119 games, 54-30 record with a 3.44 ERA)

Kevin Youkilis, 1 for 3 (.333 avg) Double, 3 Walks, 2 Ks

Mark Loretta, 2 for 16 (.125 avg) RBI, 3 Walks, K, SB

David Ortiz, 12 for 34 (.353 avg) 6 Doubles, Triple, 4 HRs, 9 RBIs, 2 Walks, 2 Ks

Manny Ramirez, 16 for 47 (.340 avg) 3 Doubles, 9 HRs, 18 RBIs, 6 Walks, 12 Ks

Jason Varitek, 7 for 30 (.233 avg) 2 Doubles, RBI, 4 Walks, 7 Ks

Trot Nixon, 3 for 10 (.300 avg) Double, HR, RBI, 2 Ks

Coco Crisp, 5 for 16 (.313 avg) Double, RBI, Walk, 2 Ks, 2 SBs

Gabe Kapler, 6 for 21 (.286 avg) 2 Doubles, 3 RBIs, 3 Walks, 3 Ks, SB

Alex Gonzalez, 3 for 3 (1.000 avg) 2 Doubles, 2 RBIs

///

Alex Cora, 0 for 2

Mike Lowell, 2 for 3 (.667 avg) Double

Doug Mirabelli, 0 for 2, Walk

Wily Mo Pena, 0 for 3, 2 Ks

 

Kyle Snyder (1st career appearance vs Seattle)

Adrian Beltre, 0 for 2

Carl Everett, 2 for 6 (.333 avg) K

 

Player to watch: Nixon has had the longest # of ABs for a Red Sox starter since his last HR, which currently stands at 111. Entering today he has had great success against Seattle and is more than due to connect for at least 1 shot

 

46 games vs Seattle

(.293 avg) (.371 obp) 10 Doubles, 2 Triples, 9 HRs, 25 RBIs, 2 SBs

 

26 games @ SAFECO Field

(.354 avg) (.418 obp) 7 Doubles, 6 HRs, 19 RBIs, 2 SBs

 

EDIT: ORS I didnt see your estimation on Kyle Snyder before I posted. Letting you know I wasnt trying to take anything away from your player to watch for in this game

[jsinger121]

just win

[jsinger121]

I'm hoping Papelbon and Lester have big series for comments made by this guy. I hope they stick it to Dave Cameron.

 

http://ussmariner.com/2005/12/29/papelbon-and-lester/

[Beckett95]

I'm hoping Papelbon and Lester have big series for comments made by this guy. I hope they stick it to Dave Cameron.

 

http://ussmariner.com/2005/12/29/papelbon-and-lester/

 

Papelbon is essentially the Red Sox version of Clint Nageotte

 

[jsinger121]

Clint Nageotte is on the DL right now. He be lucky to have a season like Papelbon now. Cameron is a fool and will remain a fool for his analysis.

[riverside sluggers]

laughing my ass of at these ridculous posts by Mariners fans especially dave, calling Lester & Papelbon generic pitching prospects

 

Dave’s original comment is:

 

“Papelbon is essentially the Red Sox version of Clint Nageotte. Power pitcher without a good offspeed pitch, low to mid 90s fastball, lots of scouts prefer as a reliever. Papelbon has slightly better command, but Nageotte showed some groundball dominance this year, so those can essentially cancel each other out. Would you trade Jeremy Reed for another Clint Nageotte?”

 

Godori said:

December 29th, 2005 at 5:19 pm

Hey snarky jerk, thanks for this thread. I was hearing how Lester and Paps were the Sox’s version of King Felix and to me it was all that Eastern Media bias ballyhooing!!!

 

This thread just reaffirms my feeling that Reed’s gonna continue to improve and if it was just 13 hits (while playing half his games in SafeCo) that separated him from meeting last year’s expectations, then we can’t give him away now. I predict he’ll get 13 more hits in 06 for the one’s he was robbed of in 05 and finish with a .295/.360/.405

 

Then we can really rub it the Red Sox nation by refusing their offer of both Lester AND Papelbon for Reed.

 

Oh and Meche will revert back to a solid #3 or #4 SP. Sure he won’t be an ace but considering what JWash is gonna get paid, something tells me we’ll all be glad we didn’t make this Billfoolery trade.

 

Dave said:

December 29th, 2005 at 8:16 pm

Or because he has a major league fastball, curveball, cutter, change, and a superb track record in AA.

 

Except that no one that isn’t a part of Red Sox nation believes he has a major league curveball and change. I talked with three scouts who saw him this year, and two of those three each saw him last year too. They all have everything except his FB as below average present value. They differ on their opinions of his future secondary pitches; one really likes his chances to be a three pitch guy, two aren’t as sold. But none of them think his secondary stuff is major league quality right now.

 

See, this is my point. The fact that you guys feel that these guys are in the top 5-7 pitching prospects in the game is why I posted this in the first place. Verlander, Liriano, Cain, Billingsley, Olsen, Reyes, and Diamond are all clearly preferable to Lester or Papelbon in my book. They aren’t even close to the top 5, who are a big step ahead of everyone else. What’s the difference between Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton (besides 100 pounds) or Fernando Nieve? Or Lester and Cesar Carillo? Or, even though he’s not my favorite, how about Yusmeiro Petit?

 

That’s the point. There are a ton of guys in Lester and Papelbon’s class. These guys really aren’t that special. Look at the beginning of this thread. There’s a reference made to a “pro executive” who called Lester the best LHP of the past ten years. Which is absurd and indefensible.

 

The entire point of this thread was to point out that Papelbon and Lester are not the elite pitching prospects that they’ve been painted in the media. They’re good arms, and they have potential, but calling them future #1’s is pretty ridiculous, and vastly overstates their talent level.

 

Suck on it "Dave":dance:

[riverside sluggers]

Sorry guys I just keep finding laughable comments

 

Dave:

 

Murton, Go read the article Dave Studerman wrote for the Hardball Times site today. It basically refutes everything you just wrote. The fact that much of Papelbon's success has been due to his performance with runners on base is a bad sign for his future, not a good one

 

Dave said:

December 30th, 2005 at 6:44 am

I had a long answer typed up before my connection died and ate it. So, we’ll see if I have the inspiration to do this twice.

 

Nageotte, when healthy, throws 92-95 with a devastating slider and no discernable offspeed pitch. He’s dominated in the high minors, but had command problems in the majors despite posting solid strikeout rates. There are questions about his ability to stay in the rotation, and his future may end up as a reliever.

 

Sounds an awful lot like Papelbon to me. Yes, Nageotte’s stock has fallen some due to the back problem that cost him a good chunk of 2005, and obviously, I’d do a one-for-one swap right now if given the chance. But Nageotte is a cautionary tale for people who believe that somehow Papelbon has already established himself as a major league starting pitcher.

 

Success in the bullpen does not equal success in the rotation. Papelbon didn’t even pitch all that well out of the bullpen, to be honest. He stranded 88 percent of the runners he put on base, which might be impressive, but isn’t something he can sustain.

 

Papelbon, to me, has something like these kind of odds

 

40 percent - struggles in rotation, moves to relief full time, becomes solid setup man

30 percent - arm goes south, never amounts to anything

20 percent - Becomes solid middle of the rotation starter

10 percent - All-Star level starter

 

In my view, there’s something like a 70 percent chance that you guys end up disappointed with Papelbon’s career, and about a 10 percent chance that he turns out to be the #1 starter that you’re all hoping for.

 

Meanwhile, Jeremy Reed’s odds look more like this:

 

50 percent - Settles in as a .280/.350/.400 center fielder.

30 percent - Rebounds to minor league form, turns into .300/.370/.450 guy, makes several all-star teams.

20 percent - Never improves at all, becomes the new Darin Erstad

 

So there’s something like an 80 percent chance that Jeremy Reed will help the Mariners, and a 30 percent chance that he’s as good as Papelbon even if both players hit their peak value.

 

Sure, there are scenarios where Papelbon or Lester could turn out to be more valuable major league players than Jeremy Reed. They’re just unlikely.

[SoxFan02]

And i thought Yankee fans were idiots

[Beckett95]

Sorry guys I just keep finding laughable comments

 

what were his percentages for Rookie of the year, Cy Young and MVP canidate??

 

[Papelbon58]

that guy is a complete and utter baseball moron,

40 % he becomes a solid set up man, he is the best fricking closer in the god damn majors. What the heck is this guy smoking, Jeremy Reed!!!??

[CrespoBlows]

Snyder 1-1, 10.03

 

vs.

 

Moyer 3-5, 3.75

 

Today's Theme: THE ORACLE

 

I called Lester a Wild Thing, and he found a little control. I called out Nuke for not adjusting, and he pitches more than throws while allowing no gopher balls. I called out the offense for not hitting, and they plate 6 without Papi or Lowell in the lineup. Am I a mid-50's black woman that likes to smoke cigarettes while baking cookies and asking vague questions?

 

http://matrix.thescarymonkeyshow.com/images/oracle.jpg

 

Well, if I am, let's get on to who needs motivation today. Manny? Ortiz? WMP? Lowell, Youk, Coco? So many choices, but I'm going to shock you with who I pick. Kyle Snyder. I know, I know, that is going out on limb. But, what can I say, I'm a risk taker. And, my suggestion to Kyle is quite simple. He needs to do everything he can to avoid pitching like Kyle Snyder. Do that, and we win.

 

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

He's right about one thing. Jonathan Papelbon is a power pitcher without an offspeed pitch. It would be amazing if he could develop a changeup. Thats the nice thing about being 25 years old.

[BoSox21]

He'll need an off-speed pitcher to be a real effective starter but for now, his fastball, splitter and occaisional slider is good enough to close

[yeszir]

Don't worry about the vase guys, don't worry about the vase...

 

s***, I'm deep.

[Cocos Disciples]

They didn't have any odds for him being a Cy Young closer, as previously mentioned. I guess theres no chance of that.

 

Reed: .217 AVG, 6 HR, 17 RBI, .260 OBP, .377 SLUG, -6.7 VORP (2nd lowest on Mariners, lowest for hitters).

 

Damn, why couldn't we pull that off? We would be sneaking up on those pesky Orioles for 4th place!

[jsinger121]

just win

[Anuj09]

and to think i wanted us to trade Manny to Seattle for raul ibanez and Sexson they have the hr's but not the avg

 

that also would have blocked Youk

[RoyNHSox]

From Extra Bases on boston.com. No Mike Lowell again tonight.

 

Red Sox

1. Kevin Youkilis, 3B

2. Mark Loretta, 2B

3. David Ortiz, 1B

4. Manny Ramirez, DH

5. Jason Varitek, C

6. Trot Nixon, RF

7. Coco Crisp, CF

8. Gabe Kapler, LF

9. Alex Gonzalez, SS

 

P--Kyle Snyder

 

Mariners

1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF

2. Willie Bloomquist, 2B

3. Adrian Beltre, 3B

4. Raul Ibanez, LF

5. Richie Sexson, 1B

6. Carl Everett, DH

7. Kenji Johjima, C

8. Yuniesky Betancourt, SS

9. Adam Jones, CF

 

P-- Jamie Moyer

[riverside sluggers]

Tomorrow according to NESN

 

--Mike Lowell is expected to return from his stomach virus

--Youkilis will receive day off

EDIT: --Mark Loretta will receive day off, Alex Cora at 2nd

--Ortiz will play 2 straight games at 1st base

--Manny or Wily Mo will be the DH

[MANNYHOF24]

Also Ortiz is going to play firstbase again tommorow, hmm....

[MANNYHOF24]

Tomorrow according to NESN

 

--Mike Lowell is expected to return from his stomach virus

--Youkilis will receive day off

--Ortiz will play 2 straight games at 1st base

--Manny or Wily Mo will be the DH

 

I wonder if this is to Get Willy Mo in the lineup, or possibly prepare for Ortiz playing firstbase on a more regular basis?

[RoyNHSox]

I wonder why Trot is starting over WMP, when they’re facing the lefty Moyer. Maybe it’s a move based on defensive ability, but when is WMP supposed to get AB’s against LH pitching?

[monstah27]

just win

 

i second that.

[RoyNHSox]

Sweet. An early lead for Snyder as Papi hits one out off Moyer. 1-0 Sox

[CrespoBlows]

Sweet. An early lead for Snyder as Papi hits one out off Moyer. 1-0 Sox

 

http://laki.dvhk.pl/beta/cutenews/data/emoticons/suicide.gif

 

(Though, I actually like Snyder a little bit)

[Sky]

and the Yankees lose again!

[RoyNHSox]

http://laki.dvhk.pl/beta/cutenews/data/emoticons/suicide.gif

 

(Though, I actually like Snyder a little bit)

 

I do too. He’s got good stuff. It seems like it’s one inning that does him in.

[RoyNHSox]

Snyder has a 1-2-3 2nd inning. Getting the groundouts.

[RoyNHSox]

Gonzo knocks one out, 2 run HR. 3-0 Sox. Seabass showing more power.