Opening Day Roster

[youkilis rules]

Hey all. So in the middle of poli sci lecture I was obviously F-ing around and writing down some Sox stuff in my notebook. And I came to this epiphany -- what if the Sox legitimitely don't trade D Wells? Personally, I think they will, but comparing a team with D Wells vs. one without, the team with him looks a WHOLE lot better to me. Anyway under this new scenario all I think we really need to do is trade Graffy for a bag of balls. But it looks kinda like this:

 

C: Varitek

1B: Youks

2B: Loretta

SS: A-Gon

3B: Lowell

LF: Man-Ram

CF: Cocoa Puffs

RF: Trot

DH: Dortiz

 

Bench: Flaherty, Snow, Cora, Mohr

 

SP: D Wells

SP: Curt Schilling

SP: J Beckett

SP: Wakey

SP: Clement

 

RP: Foulke

RP: Timlin

RP: Papelbon

RP: Riske

RP: Seanez

RP: Tavarez

RP: Bronson

 

Comments: I'm liking this team A LOT. Now there are a few problems. One is that we only have four bench players -- but I think we really would be okay. Youk could shift to 3B if needed. Or Papi to 1st. Maybe just make sure Cora would be okay in OF too and that shouldn't be TOO big of a problem. The bullpen doesn't have a lefty. But I don't believe this is the end of the world. ALL of those guys are strong pitchers and a few even are pretty effective against lefties. But on to the positives. And I mean mainly the pitching. That rotation is SWEET. Clement as a 5th starter is highly excellent. Our bullpen is AWESOME. Everyone is good! Also, if Curt is hurt or someone is ineffective we got BronBron right there to step in as a starter. I'd say D wells wins 15, Curt 10, Beckett 15, Wake 13, and Clement 13. That's a total of 66. If the seven guys in the bullpen average 4 wins apiece (which they can) thats a win total of 94; mmmmmm. I simply see our bullpen dominating with both papelbon AND bronson. the rotation ain't half bad either. if we get a prospect for Graffy then our minors didn't even take too much of a hit this season either!

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Yes, we have four bench players, and you forgot Willie Harris.

 

So you are really high on Wells this year?

[ORS]

Stern has to be on the big club for the first 18 days of the season, or the Sox have to give him back to Atlanta per the Rule 5 draft. It makes no sense to hold onto him this long to give him up 2.5 weeks from having full control of him, so I see them having him on the roster for the needed time.

 

That brings up an important omission from your roster. You don't have a backup OF that can play CF, and you can't go into the season without one. This leads me to believe they won't be going with a 12-man pitching staff. I'd look for one of Clement/Wells to get dealt.

 

I think Bard has to really screw the pooch in ST to lose the backup job to Flaherty. The contract Flats signed is contigent upon him making the roster, so if he doesn't make it, the Sox aren't out any money.

[god is a redsox FAN]

Clement is gonna be traded, as is Wells, and Paplebon is gonna start, but is it crazy for me to think that maybe Martinez could possibly come back, i've heard some rumors he could come back.

[gosox613]

Do you really expect us to deal two guys that we havent been able to all offseason one week before pitchers and catchers report? sounds unlikely to me.

[example1]

Yes, its crazy.

 

Where are you hearing those rumors?

[ORS]

They probably won't trade both. Schilling, while the progress reports sound good, could still have some physical problems. Beckett has yet to make 30+ starts in a season. It is completely possible that neither of these guys miss a start, but keeping one of Wells/Clement for insurance seems like the prudent move at the time. That would give them a rotation of:

 

Beckett

Schilling

Wake

Arroyo

Wells/Clement

 

It would also allow them to start Papelbon in the 'pen, which is how they want to start the year from what I've read. It makes a lot of sense too. He impressed in his debut last year, but he still needs to show some polish on his secondary pitches. If he starts in the 'pen it limits his exposure while seeing if his offseason work has made those pitches more effective and it also keeps his inning total down for the year. He'll make some starts because someone will need a breather, or a spring game will be rained out and they'll probably play a double-header. If he shines in those opportunities he'll probably take Bronson's spot by about the beginning of June.

[jsinger121]

wells is more likely to be dealt than clement.....they need clement to improve his trade value first

[Sox Fan on Cape]

wells is more likely to be dealt than clement.....they need clement to improve his trade value first

Agreed, Wells will probably be traded sometime during Spring Training.

[jsinger121]

it all depends on what teams have pitchers injured in spring training......hopefully the dodgers do and they would be willing to fork over a good prospect or 2.

[MANNYHOF24]

Clement is gonna be traded, as is Wells, and Paplebon is gonna start, but is it crazy for me to think that maybe Martinez could possibly come back, i've heard some rumors he could come back.

 

As in Pedro, thats the most hillarious thing ive heard yet. Why the hell would the mets trade their best pitcher, when they have a team that could conviably win the W.S this year. That is just not even realistic.

[Ray10]

The only thing about that roster is that Gonzo will be batting 9th most likely.

[The Monster is my Mom]

As in Pedro, thats the most hillarious thing ive heard yet. Why the hell would the mets trade their best pitcher, when they have a team that could conviably win the W.S this year. That is just not even realistic.

 

Agreed. No way the Mets trade Pedro, especially at the beginning of the season. If for some reason the Mets really tank (which I don't think they will), then MAYBE they will look to dump some of those salaries.

[krazeebrainz]

There is no way Pedro will ever pitch for the Sox again. The primary reason that he is on the Mets right now is because he has a definitive 4th year promised to him. This was the problem that the Sox had with Pedro...The Sox front office saw a big-money pitcher throwing an 86 mph fastball in the '04 W.S. Pedro's arm just doesn't have the juice to grind it out for the next (3) years, let alone the post season. The post season is where the money is, and this is why he is a perfect Met, seeing as they're going nowhere.

[ksushi]

What the hell does conviably mean?

 

And why would we want to inherit pedro's contract? *pukes*

[krazeebrainz]

I think that "conviably" is a contraction...I think that it is a fusion of "can" and "viably." Well, my new word for the day is going to be "cantviably." The Mets are going no where this year. They are a first-round-and-out in the playoffs at best. The Mets just don't have the starting pitching.

 

Pedro had a great year last year, but I'm very curious to see if he can duplicate it. Last year was on of vengence for Pedro because the Sox didn't wish to give him a 4-year deal. Now that the burner has cooled, I wouldn't be surprised if Pedro clocked in an ERA somewhere between 3.7-4.00 this upcoming season.

[kreinbihl34]

Clement I think is a Red Son till the end of his contract unless someone wows us with a deal. I still think he'll be worth his money this year and that he'll show up in the post season.

[Plumpamania]

C: Jason Varitek/Josh Bard

1B: Kevin Youkilis/JT Snow

2B: Mark Loretta/Alex Cora

SS: Dustin Pedrioa/Tony Graffanino

3B: Mike Lowell

LF: Manny Ramirez

CF: CoCo Crisp/Willie Harris

RF: Trot Nixon/Adam Stern

DH: David Ortiz

 

SP1: Curt Schilling

SP2: Josh Beckett

SP3: Matt Clement

SP4: Bronson Arroyo

SP5: Tim Wakefield

 

MR1: Jonathan Papelbon

MR2: Julian Tavarez

MR3: Rudy Seanez

MR4: David Riske

SU1: Mike Timlin

CL1: Keith Foulke

 

Obviously I didn't even put AGon on, b/c I think Peddy is ready. Harris I think will be waived as well. Wells obviously I thought was traded. But it should be a rock solid team.

[yankeessuck013]

A-Gonz will be the starting SS, and I think Flahrety will be the back-up catcher.

[riverside sluggers]

I agree about Flaherty. Bard might have some upside, but actually Flaherty stands out as the best offensive & defensive option (has experience with knuckleballs) of the 3 options. He also knows the Red sox system, having been drafted by the Sox and spending his first 2 seasons in the majors with Boston.

[ORS]

I agree about Flaherty. Bard might have some upside, but actually Flaherty stands out as the best offensive & defensive option (has experience with knuckleballs) of the 3 options. He also knows the Red sox system, having been drafted by the Sox and spending his first 2 seasons in the majors with Boston.

Flaherty's last game with Boston was in '93, so I'd hardly call him familiar with the system since it has undergone 12 years of personnel changes, minor league affiliate changes, and is under new ownership. Bard is young and still has some ceiling, so if he holds his own in ST, I think the job will go to him.

 

About who will be catching Wake. I've seen this speculated elsewhere and it makes sense to me, so I guess you can put me in the "let's have Tek start catching Wake" boat. If Tek starts catching him (say, 1/2 his starts next year) and gets used to catching the KB, then he won't have to be a bench player if Wake is making a postseason start, which would allow them to put the most potent offensive lineup into the most important games.

[riverside sluggers]

I think its safe to assume that Flaherty, Bard & Huckaby will be interviewing for the job to catch Wake. Can the stats Wake had when Varitek caught him this past season, be discounted quickly? I was just merely pointing out, that Flaherty does currently look like the favorite to be the backup/Wake's catcher. Just putting my opinion through, doesnt mean I believe it will happen so. We will see what is decided.

[ORS]

Relax, I know you are just giving your opinion and I am merely retorting. This type of discussion is what message boards are all about. As fas as Wake's performance with Tek catching, I can't seem to find a good online resource that tells you pitcher/catcher splits, so I don't have the data to look at. If forced to guess, since Tek rarely catches him, I have to assume that the sample size is very small and very random. In most statistical studies, you want a completely random sample, but in sports you need some continuity to the sample because players have up and down performances, which can affect the quality of the sample as I mentioned in another thread. Do you know of a good online resource for pitcher/catcher splits?

[MC Hammer]

Relax, I know you are just giving your opinion and I am merely retorting. This type of discussion is what message boards are all about. As fas as Wake's performance with Tek catching, I can't seem to find a good online resource that tells you pitcher/catcher splits, so I don't have the data to look at. If forced to guess, since Tek rarely catches him, I have to assume that the sample size is very small and very random. In most statistical studies, you want a completely random sample, but in sports you need some continuity to the sample because players have up and down performances, which can affect the quality of the sample as I mentioned in another thread. Do you know of a good online resource for pitcher/catcher splits?

There doesn't appear to be a site with stats, but I do remember Wake's ERA being over 9.00 with Tek catching last year.

 

First source I saw for it ...

The unpredictable motion of the knuckleball makes it one of the most difficult pitches for a catcher to handle. Catchers tend to be charged with a significantly higher number of passed balls when a knuckleball pitcher is on the mound. A team will sometimes employ a catcher solely for games started by a knuckleballer. The Boston Red Sox did this fairly systematically in their 2004 world championship season, with Doug Mirabelli regularly catching in place of Jason Varitek when Tim Wakefield was pitching. Jason Varitek would sometimes catch for Wakefield anyway so they would have more batting power. Sometimes, it proved to be diasterous when Varitek was catching. In 2005, Mirabelli was injured, so Vartitek had no choice but to catch for Wakefield. The numbers didn't lie: Wakefield's ERA was over 9.00 when Varitek caught for him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knuckleball

 

 

I'm trying to find more indepth stats.

[riverside sluggers]

Sorry no I dont know of a site that gives that info, I will post a link if Im able to find it though. I do remember watching "Red Sox Now" on NESN and they had shown stats for when Varitek had caught Wakefield and it was 0-4 with an ERA above 8.

 

Varitek

May 21 vs Braves, 7-5 loss---5 innings pitched, 8 Hits, 6 ER, 4 Walks, 5 Ks

May 27 vs Yanks, 6-3 loss---5 innings pitched, 4 Hits, 4 ER, 7 Walks, 3 Ks

Jun 1 vs Orioles, 9-3 loss---5.2 innings pitched, 9 Hits, 7 ER, 2 Walks, 3 Ks

Jun 6 vs Cards, 7-1 loss---5.2 innings pitched, 7 Hits, 5 Runs (4 ER), 4 Walks, 3 Ks

 

Mirabelli back from DL

Jun 12 vs Cubs, 8-1 win---7 innings pitched, 4 Hits, 1 ER, 3 Ks

Jun 18 vs Pirates, 2-0 loss---7 innings pitched, 7 Hits, 0 ER, 3 Walks, 5 Ks

Jun 24 vs Phillies, 8-0 win---8 innings pitched, 2 Hits, 0 ER, 2 Walks, 6 Ks

Jun 29 vs Guardians, 5-2 win---7 innings pitched, 5 Hits, 2 ER, 4 Walks, 3 Ks

[ORS]

And here are the 4 starts prior to Mirabelli's injury....

 

April 29 @ Tex (7-2 loss): 6.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

May 4 @ Det (4-3 win): 7.0 IP, 10 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

May 9 vs Oak (13-5 win): 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

May 15 @ Sea (5-4 loss): 7.0 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

 

So it wasn't like he was red-hot going into Tek's 4 games; he just happened to get hot after. It kind of strikes me as coincidental. And, of the 4 teams that Tek caught him for, 3 of them were top-10 run scoring teams last year (NY, Atl, Stl), and the game against Baltimore was before their collapse. Of the 4 games after Mirabelli came back, only 2 were against top-10 scoring teams (Phi, Cle), and Cleveland hadn't started their hot streak yet. Of the 4 games pre-Mirabelli injury, 2 were against top-10 scoring teams (Tex, Oak), and he gave up 5 ER both times. I really don't see the connection between Wake's performance and the guy behind the plate.

[riverside sluggers]

Still... what reason can you give that the Sox havent had Varitek catch for Wakefield that much? Or rather the fact why they signed Flaherty & Huckaby to minor league deals, both who have experience in catching the knuckleball? Im still going on the assumption it will be a decision of Bard or most likely Flaherty in spring training

[ksushi]

There doesn't appear to be a site with stats, but I do remember Wake's ERA being over 9.00 with Tek catching last year

 

 

I'm trying to find more indepth stats.

 

That isn't because Tek cannot catch him, its because Tek hadn't caught him all season, they didn't work together in spring training. Everyone is panicing because they think that a knuckleballer is impossible to catch, not true. It takes getting used to - something Tek never did. If Tek worked with Wake through ST and they got a rythm going and they got on the same page, no problem. I think Wake should get his own personal catcher, and that person will do a fine job who ever that is too.

 

Its added comfort for Wake when Mirabelli catches because he has been catching him for years. It isn't necessary for wake to pitch well though. Find all the stats you want to find, none of them matter, you need to catch a guy more than just once or twice in a season to develop a feel for him, and if you can't develop a feel for how he pitches, you won't catch him effectively.

 

Tek has a way of feeling guys out, and helping guys pitch to their strengths, a good game caller can do that. A catcher though, doesn't determine a pitchers success, the pitcher does. Wake is notorious for going on streaks, if Tek caught him on a bad streak, not much he can do eh?

[ksushi]

Still... what reason can you give that the Sox havent had Varitek catch for Wakefield that much? Or rather the fact why they signed Flaherty & Huckaby to minor league deals, both who have experience in catching the knuckleball? Im still going on the assumption it will be a decision of Bard or most likely Flaherty in spring training

 

Because you need to give Varitek a day off. You can't have Tek catching every single day, you can't have any catcher catch every single day, a backup catcher is always necessary for any Major League roster. If wakefield wasn't in the rotation, there would still be a back up catcher catching once every five games. It doesn't have to do anything with Varitek not being able to handle wakefield, it has to do with giving varitek a rest so he can stay fresh.

[riverside sluggers]

Varitek wont have much time in spring training as he will be in the WBC through March 20th cutting down his time he has to work with the pitchers.