Sox offensive predictions

[Sox Fan on Cape]

I'll throw in my two cents. We can all argue the metrics of various players, both newly acquired and those that have left. But all are just indicators of "potential" performance, metrics it is not a science, just a mathematical application of probabilities. These are made on various assumptions as to the weighting ( relevance ) of the data. Some have become stronger indicators than others, but they aren't exact. They can't be, because they are based on the performance of human beings which involves a totally different set of criteria. Basically its their mental capabilities, mind set, attitude etc. This is why psychology is an inexact discipline, there is no definitive way to accurately judge a person's mental state, nor how to correct it. For instance is he worried about his marriage, family, health ( injuries he's been hiding due to contracts, his future, etc. ). Basically, a positive mental attitude, relates to confidence in your ability. There is no current statistic to measure this. Although, we all heard of phrases like; "I'm seeing the ball better", " I'm in a hot streak", "The ball just isn't droping in", ect.

I guess what I'm saying, as a sports fan is, my team is the Red Sox, and every year is a new year and starts with a clean slate. This means that, I hope the injured heal, new acquisitions perform as expected ( or better ), and the rookies live up to their hype. A true fan never goes into a season saying things like; " we're going to suck" or " the only way we're going win is if other teams are decimated by injures". I ,for one, enter this season with my eternal optimism.

[ORS]

His BABIP also fell back to earth after the break. He was hitting to a tune of .371 on balls in play pre-ASB, but that number fell to .295 post-ASB. The AL average last year was .298.

 

About a month ago I decided to look at how Fenway affected his hitting performance on BABIP so I calculated his Home/Road BABIP for 2002-2005. Here's what I came up with:

 

2002-2005 BABIP

Home: .326

Road: .296

 

The AL average for that period was .298. It shows that away from Fenway, Damon is about a league average player in terms of BABIP. And, when his BABIP is at league average, he's a .280/.345/.440 hitter. This is supported by his Home/Road regular splits for that period:

 

2002-2005 Rate Stats

Home: .310/.387/.442/.829

Road: .281/.341/.440/.781

 

And it is supported by the .282/.343/.397 (the shoulder didn't affect his contact, put did take a little of his power) line he put up in the 2nd half when he had a league average BABIP. The evidence suggests that there is a strong possibility that this is the type of line he'll put up in NY next year.

 

EDIT: I needed to change Damon's 2002-2005 rate stats since I mistakenly used his career Fenway/Non-Fenway splits. The changes weren't drastic.

[He Hate Me]

I'll throw in my two cents. We can all argue the metrics of various players, both newly acquired and those that have left. But all are just indicators of "potential" performance, metrics it is not a science, just a mathematical application of probabilities. These are made on various assumptions as to the weighting ( relevance ) of the data. Some have become stronger indicators than others, but they aren't exact. They can't be, because they are based on the performance of human beings which involves a totally different set of criteria. Basically its their mental capabilities, mind set, attitude etc. This is why psychology is an inexact discipline, there is no definitive way to accurately judge a person's mental state, nor how to correct it. For instance is he worried about his marriage, family, health ( injuries he's been hiding due to contracts, his future, etc. ). Basically, a positive mental attitude, relates to confidence in your ability. There is no current statistic to measure this. Although, we all heard of phrases like; "I'm seeing the ball better", " I'm in a hot streak", "The ball just isn't droping in", ect.

I guess what I'm saying, as a sports fan is, my team is the Red Sox, and every year is a new year and starts with a clean slate. This means that, I hope the injured heal, new acquisitions perform as expected ( or better ), and the rookies live up to their hype. A true fan never goes into a season saying things like; " we're going to suck" or " the only way we're going win is if other teams are decimated by injures". I ,for one, enter this season with my eternal optimism.

 

Wow a pragmatic post. Didnt think I'd see one in this thread

 

I for one agree completely with your points. Too many people rely on fancy formulas lately

[ORS]

Wow a pragmatic post. Didnt think I'd see one in this thread

 

I for one agree completely with your points. Too many people rely on fancy formulas lately

Since I'm most guilty of looking beyond the raw numbers I'll assume this is a shot at me. I'll have to say I'm pretty unapologetic for trying to glean some useful information by analyzing the numbers. I would much rather spend the time needed to gain some insight into statistical relevance than just pull some projected numbers straight from my ass. Maybe it's just me, but I find predictions with some evidentiary support to be much more credible than those extracted from thin air.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

Since I'm most guilty of looking beyond the raw numbers I'll assume this is a shot at me. I'll have to say I'm pretty unapologetic for trying to glean some useful information by analyzing the numbers. I would much rather spend the time needed to gain some insight into statistical relevance than just pull some projected numbers straight from my ass. Maybe it's just me, but I find predictions with some evidential support to be much more credible than those extracted from thin air.

No, I don't think it was a shot at you. I think it was a more of an agreement with me. Meaning that there is still the human factor involved with hoping for the best. Trust me if I was buying or acquiring an asset, I want every conceivable statistic and projection available. Just pointing out that the human factors can't be quantified and that a fan's point of enthusiasm springs eternal. Also, the application of metrics to sports ( in this case baseball ) is a recent trend is still evolving. There was absolutely no offense meant, especially to you.

[ORS]

I know, and I agree with you too SFoC. The human factor is why no statistical models are absolute. I think 3/4 of his post agrees with you, but that last sentence...

 

Too many people rely on fancy formulas lately

...is the one that I take issue with.

[Sox Fan on Cape]

I know, and I agree with you too SFoC. The human factor is why no statistical models are absolute. I think 3/4 of his post agrees with you, but that last sentence...

 

 

...is the one that I take issue with.

Okay, I wasn't trying to incite any arguments, I was just, as I said stating my two cents. I, of all people, am not one to demean the value of numerical applications. Speaking of which, I got to get back to returns.

 

PS : I react somewhat defensively when it comes to applied statistics. It has and will devastate hundreds of people in the fishing industry. Due to miss application, poor sampling, and assumptions.

[seabeachfred]

Come on Ky, stop beating around Robin Hood's barn; weigh in with a prediction of your own. You have nothing to lose. Is Crisp going to be better for us his first season than Johnny Damon was in 2002?

[example1]

code:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player POS BA OBP SLG HR EqA VORP FRAR

Jason Varitek C 0.271 0.361 0.477 27 0.284 38.8 -2

Kevin Youkilis 1B 0.258 0.368 0.421 18 0.274 21.9 3

Mark Loretta 2B 0.294 0.355 0.415 10 0.266 28.5 1

Alex Cora SS 0.261 0.307 0.368 9 0.232 6.3 1

Dustin Pedroia SS 0.299 0.365 0.458 14 0.281 39.6 3

Mike Lowell 3B 0.271 0.332 0.457 22 0.267 21.9 3

Manny Ramirez LF 0.296 0.386 0.571 40 0.314 51.1 -11

Coco Crisp CF 0.295 0.347 0.445 15 0.276 27.1 2

Trot Nixon RF 0.284 0.369 0.482 24 0.288 28.8 0

David Ortiz DH 0.292 0.384 0.578 40 0.314 57.1 0

 

Pitcher POS IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9

Curt Schilling SP 99.7 4.17 7.31 1.99 1.08

Josh Beckett SP 184.3 3.87 7.47 2.73 0.93

David Wells SP 151.7 4.79 4.33 1.19 1.13

Matt Clement SP 190.3 4.11 6.76 3.17 0.89

Tim Wakefield SP 203.7 4.65 5.83 2.92 1.15

Jon Papelbon SP 101.3 4.91 6.59 3.21 1.34

 

Keith Foulke RP 51.3 4.29 6.88 2.65 1.41

Craig Hansen RP 43.7 4.09 6.77 2.06 1.03

Bronson Arroyo RP 201.3 4.47 5.42 2.19 1.12

David Riske RP 54.3 3.57 6.81 2.82 1.16

Rudy Seanez RP 55.3 3.96 9.11 3.91 1.14

Julian Tavarez RP 64.3 4.33 5.32 2.66 0.84

Mike Timlin RP 65.3 3.98 6.48 1.93 0.96

 

You're not predicting much from Schilling here Plump. I mean, his numbers actually aren't that bad, but the IP and ERA seem eerily similar to the 2006 PECOTA projections. Let's hope you (and they) aren't right. I thought PECOTA predicted 99.7 IP because it projects in terms of player trends and Schilling's injury would therefore drastically impact the number of IP for next year. Schilling looked a lot better to me at the end of the season last year so I'm expecting either something like what you predict (roughly 100 IP), or over 200 IP. One or the other. If he is ineffective then he likely won't throw too much, but if he's even partly effective then he will get the Wakefield-esque 14 wins and 200+ IP.

[example1]

Since I'm most guilty of looking beyond the raw numbers I'll assume this is a shot at me. I'll have to say I'm pretty unapologetic for trying to glean some useful information by analyzing the numbers. I would much rather spend the time needed to gain some insight into statistical relevance than just pull some projected numbers straight from my ass. Maybe it's just me, but I find predictions with some evidentiary support to be much more credible than those extracted from thin air.

 

What you say is completely in line with SFoC's post, ORS. You guys both make great points that are larger and more philosophical than the topic "Sox offensive predictions" could possibly cover.

 

You are both saying that forecasting baseball is both about statistics and motivation. As SFoC made very clear, there is tremendous bias inherent in any projection system that weighs any one variable over another (i.e., OBP is more important than AVG). It is an assumption that is made on a vast quantity of data, but that data is necessarily incomplete. The only way to get a "correct" answer about how to weigh any particular statistic is to have an infinite or complete set of data. But we haven't played next season yet so our set is incomplete. Experience helps us to dictate the rules we use and the laws we create.

 

We can gleam that some level of projection works well. Bill James's pythagorean formula was pretty good, and working from that (like geometry) other likely laws/rules seem to come forth. That being said, it isn't always right. You can flip a coin 100 times and end up with 99 heads; the chances of it happening are infinitely small, but there nonetheless.

 

So what the HELL am I saying? We can predict and use statistics all we want, but future uncertainty is the essence of why I am constantly excited by baseball. Baseball keeps statistics better than any other sport and has for a very long time. Despite all that objective knowledge the best science we can do with it is still ultimately based on individual players doing individual things.

 

That being said, I too would much rather attempt to study the science of the thing than to pretend that no objective knowledge of baseball exists. At the same time, though, I'll still stick my neck out and make a prediction about next season. Its fun like that.

[krazeebrainz]

One Red Seat,

 

I am sure that "formulas" produce figures that are used by the front office in any organization. This is a fact, and "formulas" are used by all in all professional sports; calculations limit random variability and hone in on predictability.

 

What separates the Sox from others is the fact that we have Theo. Now, I know that this has been touched upon in other posts, but I truly believe that Theo has a knack for eye-balling talent that works. He not only uses calculations, but he also has a blood hound-like cunning to sniff-out those potential talents that will fit in with the ball club and produce accordingly. Ya can't buy chemistry...There is no equation for this. With this said, I strongly feel that both instinct and number crunching are what make our front office different from many in MLB.

 

Numbers make the world go 'round, but solid calculations and instinct are what win championships. With all of this said, I agree with One Red Seat's statistical analysis. I also appreciate that fact that he can make sound judgements based on ball player's tendencies (i.e. Lowell and Crisp doing well in Fenway) and back-up a number of his statements with sound evidence.

 

Analyze away,

kraze

[He Hate Me]

Since I'm most guilty of looking beyond the raw numbers I'll assume this is a shot at me. I'll have to say I'm pretty unapologetic for trying to glean some useful information by analyzing the numbers. I would much rather spend the time needed to gain some insight into statistical relevance than just pull some projected numbers straight from my ass. Maybe it's just me, but I find predictions with some evidentiary support to be much more credible than those extracted from thin air.

 

No ORS, I dont take shots at people. I'm simply agreeing with SFoC about the human factor. I think that with all the formulas out there (WARP is cool though), people tend to sometimes forget the human factors, and then go crazy with all the mathematical projections.

[Cityofchampions33]

That's true, you can never tell precisely just off stats, because honestly, did anyone predict what they did when Ortiz had his first big year? I think that came off of a lot of work with Papa Jack, and the Fenway factor.

[Plumpamania]

You're not predicting much from Schilling here Plump. I mean, his numbers actually aren't that bad, but the IP and ERA seem eerily similar to the 2006 PECOTA projections. Let's hope you (and they) aren't right. I thought PECOTA predicted 99.7 IP because it projects in terms of player trends and Schilling's injury would therefore drastically impact the number of IP for next year. Schilling looked a lot better to me at the end of the season last year so I'm expecting either something like what you predict (roughly 100 IP), or over 200 IP. One or the other. If he is ineffective then he likely won't throw too much, but if he's even partly effective then he will get the Wakefield-esque 14 wins and 200+ IP.

 

Those are the PETCOA projections

[Plumpamania]

Sabermetric formulas are all we have to really go by when making predictions. They take almost everything into account for, and are reliable. Pulling predictions out of your rear makes zero sense.

[example1]

Those are the PETCOA projections

 

You lazy bastard

 

You mean the PECTOA's for IP and AB's, right? Not all of the stats you listed match perfectly with PECOTA (though many are close).

 

What about your projections plump. C'mon man, stick your neck out a little!

[Plumpamania]

Here we go kiddies, stats to predict include as follows:

 

Hitters- HR/RBI/BA/OB/SA/OPS

 

Pitchers- W/L SV ERA

 

As of January 4, 2006 (Subject to change with Roster Changes)

 

Positional Players (Starters Only)

 

C- Jason Varitek: 17 HR 75 RBI .280/.360/.475/.835

1B- Kevin Youkilis: 20 HR 80 RBI .270/.380/.450/.830

2B- Mark Loretta: 13 HR 70 RBI .275/.370/.425/.795

SS- Dustin Pedrioa: 12 HR 70 RBI .260/.340/.400/.740

3B- Mike Lowell: 25 HR 90 RBI .275/.340/.490/.830

LF- Manny Ramirez: 45 HR 140 RBI .300/.410/.600/1.010

CF- Coco Crisp: 23 HR 85 RBI .320/.380/.500/.880

RF- Trot Nixon: 30 HR 110 RBI .300/.375/.525/.900

DH- David Ortiz: 45 HR 150 RBI .300/.450/.600/1.050

 

Rotation

 

SP1- Josh Beckett: 18 W 10 L 3.50 ERA

SP2- Curt Schilling: 15 W 8 L 3.75 ERA

SP3- Matt Clement: 12 W 10 L 4.25 ERA

SP4- Jon Papelbon: 13 W 7 L 3.80 ERA

SP5- Tim Wakefield: 15 W 10 L 4.50 ERA

 

Bullpen

 

MR1- Bronson Arroyo: 9 W 5 L 4.35 ERA

MR2- Rudy Seanez: 5 W 5 L 3.80 ERA

MR3- David Riske: 2 W 6 L 2.90 ERA

MR4- Lenny DiNardo: 4 W 3 1 SV L 3.90 ERA

SU1- Mike Timlin: 5 W 3 L 4 SV 2.75 ERA

CL1- Keith Foulke: 1 W 7 L 35 SV 3.35 ERA

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Here we go kiddies, stats to predict include as follows:

 

Hitters- HR/RBI/BA/OB/SA/OPS

 

Pitchers- W/L SV ERA

 

As of January 4, 2006 (Subject to change with Roster Changes)

 

Positional Players (Starters Only)

 

C- Jason Varitek: 17 HR 75 RBI .280/.360/.475/.835

1B- Kevin Youkilis: 20 HR 80 RBI .270/.380/.450/.830

2B- Mark Loretta: 13 HR 70 RBI .275/.370/.425/.795

SS- Alex Cora: 3 HR 40 RBI .250/.320/.390/.710

3B- Mike Lowell: 25 HR 90 RBI .275/.340/.490/.830

LF- Manny Ramirez: 45 HR 140 RBI .300/.410/.550/.960

CF- Coco Crisp: 23 HR 85 RBI .320/.380/.500/.880

RF- Trot Nixon: 30 HR 110 RBI .300/.375/.525/.900

DH- David Ortiz: 45 HR 150 RBI .300/.450/.575/1.025

 

Rotation

 

SP1- Josh Beckett: 18 W 10 L 3.50 ERA

SP2- Curt Schilling: 15 W 8 L 3.75 ERA

SP3- Matt Clement: 12 W 10 L 4.25 ERA

SP4- Jon Papelbon: 13 W 7 L 3.80 ERA

SP5- Tim Wakefield: 15 W 10 L 4.50 ERA

 

Bullpen

 

MR1- Bronson Arroyo: 9 W 5 L 4.35 ERA

MR2- Rudy Seanez: 5 W 5 3.80 ERA

MR3- Guerillmo Mota: 2 W 6 L 2 SV 4.60 ERA

MR4- Lenny DiNardo: 4 W 3 1 SV L 3.90 ERA

SU1- Mike Timlin: 5 W 3 L 4 SV 2.75 ERA

CL1- Keith Foulke: 1 W 7 L 35 SV 3.35 ERA

 

 

Solid predictions...but Nixon, Lowell, and Youk are a bit optimistic. Oh, and where's Pap and A-Gon?

[yankeessuck013]

Pap is there under "rotation," and in another thread he said he doesn't think Gonzalez will be on the opening day roster.

 

and you put Mota on there, we don't have him, we traded him to Cleveland and got Riske in return.

 

Also, where Julian Tavarez?

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Pap is there under "rotation,"

 

Woah! I missed that.

[Plumpamania]

Yea I made those predictions on Netsports like a month ago. I'll edit. I was lazy and just did acopy paste.

[Plumpamania]

Okay it's updated. And it does equal out to 162.

[ORS]

I only have one nitpick Plump. You have to try really hard to hit .300/40 HR and not SLG at least .600. In fact, I think you'd have to intentionally stop at 1B on all non-HR to make it happen.

[Plumpamania]

I only have one nitpick Plump. You have to try really hard to hit .300/40 HR and not SLG at least .600. In fact, I think you'd have to intentionally stop at 1B on all non-HR to make it happen.

 

Got that changed...I got bitched out by Yankee fans for it so I just changed it on Netsports..

[ksushi]

Guillermo Mota is a Red Sox, and .275 for Loretta is a joke, but otherwise solid predictions.

[Plumpamania]

Why do you say .275 for Loretta is a joke?

[riverside sluggers]

Well Loretta does have a career .301 batting avg. Then add the fact he's making a switch of PETCO Park to Fenway Park, as well as he's a right handed pull hitter (hello green monster)

[jsinger121]

if we get .275 out of loretta that would be a huge disappointment.

[yankeessuck013]

Guillermo Mota is a Red Sox

 

Huh? He was traded to Cleveland.

[Plumpamania]

I think that Loretta is also due for some changes between leagues. New pitchers. I don't think a .275 BA is bad if he can still throw up a .360 OB%.