Red Sox Offseason - Sum-up and opinions

[guapo34]

Nice post ksushi, but i think he is smiling when he criticizes. He's a yankee fan.

[Taliesin]

You should have seen his predictions for the yank staff last year.

 

It went something like this:

 

Johnson: 50-2 .098 era

Pavano: 30-3 1.12

Jaret Wright 23-3 2.52 (now who could have forseen a one year wonder from Atlanta not doing well..hmm I don't know... everyone)

Moose: 19-1 3.32

 

In fact, the rivernator is infamous for bold, assertive, long-winded and incorrect predictions. Also, imminent rumors. I keep asking him for stock tips, so I can go the other way, but no such luck.

[ksushi]

You should have seen his predictions for the yank staff last year.

 

It went something like this:

 

Johnson: 50-2 .098 era

Pavano: 30-3 1.12

Jaret Wright 23-3 2.52 (now who could have forseen a one year wonder from Atlanta not doing well..hmm I don't know... everyone)

Moose: 19-1 3.32

 

In fact, the rivernator is infamous for bold, assertive, long-winded and incorrect predictions. Also, imminent rumors. I keep asking him for stock tips, so I can go the other way, but no such luck.

 

I had no idea i was speaking to a yankee fan, but who cares, my point still stands everyone hop on my band wagon because seriously everyone is bagging the Sox offense and its unwarranted.

 

your post made me happy btw. Oh jaret wright

[riverside sluggers]

Loretta hits .280 in a bad year. With any success at all and if he keeps out of injury's path, he will easily hit .290 - .310 he is that good a hitter. I can't speak to what kind of power he will hit for since I've not seen him hit since 04 since he was out so much last year and I don't know where his bat speed is at and I don't know his spray chart off hand. The guy won't be hurt, or at least I think it will be unrelated to his last years ailments if he does happen to go down. That being said I'm optimistic Loretta will put up numbers similar to what his career line looks like right now.

 

I checked his spray chart and scouting reports. Must say it sounds good in our perspective. Like newcomers Lowell & Gonzalez, he is plain & simple a dead pull hitter where just about all of his doubles he's hit have been sent to left field.

[TheRivernator]

nice double post, nice new name too, don't I know you?

 

 

 

Why do you think offensive turnover means the offense won't perform like it did? I think you happen to be either a really pessimistic person who might be trying to hard to be real about things, or you just don't see what I see in Mark Loretta who could be the key to a Sox offense that will be just as effecient as last years. An offense starts with setting the table with your 1-2 hitters. Read this and let it sink in, the Jake is a pitchers park and Coco hit .270 in it last year with a .320 BA on the road. Fenway is not a pitchers park, if he can manage those same road numbers you might be looking at a guy who is realstically capapble of putting up a steady .315 this year maybe higher. I'd think .315 is on the consevative side.

 

Loretta hits .280 in a bad year. With any success at all and if he keeps out of injury's path, he will easily hit .290 - .310 he is that good a hitter. I can't speak to what kind of power he will hit for since I've not seen him hit since 04 since he was out so much last year and I don't know where his bat speed is at and I don't know his spray chart off hand. The guy won't be hurt, or at least I think it will be unrelated to his last years ailments if he does happen to go down. That being said I'm optimistic Loretta will put up numbers similar to what his career line looks like right now.

 

Last i checked Damon hit .280 in the second half, August is in the 2nd half and you're dead on when you say that the Red Sox offense carried the team while the pitching really took a #2. They carried the team even while dragging Damon's .250/.330/.320 in august. Without 2nd half Damon hitting like 1st half Damon they more than managed a capable offense so this myth that without Johnny there is no hitting is bunk. I'm not telling you Crisp will never slump, but I am telling you he is capapble of steady numbers comparable to Damon's line and Loretta will absolutey lap Renteria's production at the plate. You're table setters are an improvement at this point. Granted this is all on paper and they hitters have to do the hitting still, there is no reason not to be optimistic right now. With the depth the team has in the bullpen and up the middle with Cora Graff and Loretta in a log jam of sorts, should anyone struggle in a key role, a deadline deal is certainly not out of the question. Smile.

 

Ortiz and Manny are still here and they're down right filthy. I shouldn't have to rally on their behalf. That 1-4 will score runs and if Lowell has any kind of a rebound the back half of the order is a big improvement too. If you don't think Youkilis is an upgrade on Millar in all aspects of his game you need to follow a different team. The glaring holes of last season have been filled - the bullpen is fixed, Millar isn't a sox, and our shortstop likely won't show up to camp out of shape and afraid to not ground out.

 

Smile. Please.

 

I never said that without Damon there that there is no offense. I think Crisp is a good replacement for Damon adn has higher potential for now. BUT, Crisp is a switch hitter meaning the majority of his AB's will be left handed. Fenway is a terrible place for a left handed hitter because of how deep it is about 20 feet from the pesky pole all the way to center. Fenway is a hitters park for righties and righties only. Also, you never know how a new player will react when they come into a big city and they replace an icon. He has to know that for at least the near future that he will be compared with Damon on a daily basis. That is a tough thing to have over your head, and I dont know how he will handle it seeing as I have never seen him play for a long period of time and i dont know him.

 

Otherwise, Loretta had the terrible triad in baseball last yr. Age, injury and drop in production. He will be 36 this yr. He had a pretty significant injury. He dropped 20 points off his career and 40 points off his previous season's productiveness. If he returns to a semblance of his true form, then he will be great. If he stays as he was then he'll be a serviceable 2b.

 

 

As far as thinking the sox turnover wont amount to similar offensive numbers, consider me guilty of that. The red sox were more than numbers the past 3 seasons. Compare any of the star players and for the most part the entire lineups the past 3 yrs and the yankees matched up statistically, but the sox just seemed to bring in more runs. The sox offense was extremely cohesive. They worked pitchers, they got on base, and they were clutch for 3 years in a row. I think that september and october, the offense finally started to lose its magic and the change was warranted. BUT, I am not saying that there were bad moves, I am saying that comparing these players to the 2005 numbers or the 2003-2004 numbers will likely show a dropoff. You have added 5 players to your lineup this yr, and when 3 are coming off career lows, one is a rookie pretty much, and the other is a young kid replacing an icon, that cohesiveness will take some time, if it ever develops. Also, as a yankee fan, I remember watching the bottom of your lineup do just as much damage as the top. I remember being scared every time the yankee staff had to face mueller or even graf last yr as they seemed to hammer us. That cohesiveness from 1-9 is no longer there. It has to be created, and I do not think that the new personell will gel together as a lineup and be as clutch as yrs past....

[TheRivernator]

You should have seen his predictions for the yank staff last year.

 

It went something like this:

 

Johnson: 50-2 .098 era

Pavano: 30-3 1.12

Jaret Wright 23-3 2.52 (now who could have forseen a one year wonder from Atlanta not doing well..hmm I don't know... everyone)

Moose: 19-1 3.32

 

In fact, the rivernator is infamous for bold, assertive, long-winded and incorrect predictions. Also, imminent rumors. I keep asking him for stock tips, so I can go the other way, but no such luck.

 

the only one I was close on was Johnson, and btw these are not my predictions. I had no idea that 4 of the 5 would spend significant time on the DL...

[ksushi]

 

Otherwise, Loretta had the terrible triad in baseball last yr. Age, injury and drop in production. He will be 36 this yr. He had a pretty significant injury. He dropped 20 points off his career and 40 points off his previous season's productiveness. If he returns to a semblance of his true form, then he will be great. If he stays as he was then he'll be a serviceable 2b.

 

 

I'm gonna respond to thise whole post without hardly any substance at all when I get home. I have to run right now but this one stood out so I had to take an early stab. Loretta is turning 34 this year, champ. Believe it or not, turning 34 doesn't signify the end of your career either. He'll be effective, at least a good deal more effective than renteria.

[riverside sluggers]

A reason for no optimism if the Sox had the same pitching staff as they did last season, which they have upgraded on the staff especially if Paps is worked in there. Also Curt is set to have a much better season, he's now lost considerable weight. Less weight off of his previously injured ankle thing is reason for assurance. I dont think I should try and compared the 05 opening day bullpen to the 06. Its no comparison whatsoever.

 

We still got the best 1-2 punch in baseball, as it stands an improved staff, deeper bullpen with young guns in the farm need be, and the defensive woes of recently being the 4th worst team should just be a memory. Our staff and defense last season allowed the 6 most runs, the other 5 were sub 500 teams. So I dont think my boys can be counted out so quickly 2 months before the first pitch is even thrown.

[Americal Man]

the only one I was close on was Johnson, and BTW these are not my predictions. I had no idea that 4 of the 5 would spend significant time on the DL...

 

 

mj,

we all told you that pavano and wright would not cut it in the Al even thought you persisted in calling them the aces of their respective staffs. The only thing that is different this year is that rj and mussina are a year older and who knows about the health of pavano and wright. once again, we thank you for outbidding us for their services.

 

BTW, Kevin is still available as a FA.....

[MC Hammer]

Has everyone forgotten that Pavano doesn't want to play in NY anymore?

[riverside sluggers]

RotoAuthority's Josh Beckett 06 projection using stats from Bill James Handbook, and figuring in Fenway Park factor.

 

Josh Beckett's Boston Red Sox Projection

And now I know not to work on projections before a trade is finalized. Now that Josh Beckett is officially a member of the Red Sox, here's how I see him performing in 2006. It's very similar to how he would've performed in Texas, even though I did a more extensive projection this time. Again, I used Beckett's translated 2005 stats as a starting point:

 

IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W WHIP

205.3 178 86 18 62 168 3.77 16 1.17

 

First off, I'm bumping his projected 2006 innings up to 210. Call me crazy, but I think this is the year he finally makes more than thirty starts. It's as close to a gut call as I'll get. I used the Bill James Handbook 2006 to get park factors for Fenway. Overall, Fenway increases runs by 10%. It will help Beckett in HR allowed and hurt him in hits, walks, and strikeouts a little bit. His home ERA is projected at 4.15.

 

Pitching in the other AL East stadiums is no prize either, but using similar methodology I think Beckett should post a 3.85 road ERA.

 

I split his innings evenly between home and the road, although that's not always the case. His final ERA is 3.99. I'm only going to give him 15 wins. Buster Olney made a seemingly good point today, that Beckett is more of a 95 pitch type of guy. To find out, I compiled this handy chart, which subtracts out a bullpen appearance and five injury-related starts that were messing up the averages.

 

Year Pitches Starts Pit/Start IP IP/Start Pit/IP

2005 2760 28 98.57 176.67 6.31 15.62

2004 2270 23 98.70 144.33 6.28 15.73

2003 2260 22 102.73 140.00 6.36 16.14

------7290 73 99.86 461.00 6.32 15.81

 

As far as the pitchings per inning goes, a 15.6 mark is OK. He's not Greg Maddux, but he's in the middle of the pack for efficiency in the NL. 6.3 innings per start is definitely not workhorse territory, so he'll be entrusting plenty of leads to the bullpen. Sometimes that's OK and you win 18 games like Chris Capuano. Other times you get 12 wins like Derek Lowe did. Which way that swings for Beckett depends on what Boston does with its bullpen this winter.

 

Here's my final translation for fantasy baseball:

IP H ER HR BB SO ERA W WHIP

210 188 93 17 65 173 3.99 15 1.20

[jimmycarter05]

Wow, if he gets that I hope the Sox will definately try to nail him long term.

[seabeachfred]

Cal, everything is fine except for Pedroia on the bench. NO WAY IN HELL THAT MUST HAPPEN!!!! He must be playing everyday at Pawtucket at shortstop hopefully, and if ready by mid-season be brought up and inserted into the lineup for the weak hitting and slumping Gonzales. You don't bring a young player like that up to sit. NEVER NEVER NEVER.

[TheRivernator]

I'm gonna respond to thise whole post without hardly any substance at all when I get home. I have to run right now but this one stood out so I had to take an early stab. Loretta is turning 34 this year, champ. Believe it or not, turning 34 doesn't signify the end of your career either. He'll be effective, at least a good deal more effective than renteria.

 

we were both wrong, he will turn 35 this season....

[TheRivernator]

mj,

we all told you that pavano and wright would not cut it in the Al even thought you persisted in calling them the aces of their respective staffs. The only thing that is different this year is that rj and mussina are a year older and who knows about the health of pavano and wright. once again, we thank you for outbidding us for their services.

 

BTW, Kevin is still available as a FA.....

 

they spent a full season on the DL. The jury is out on Pavano still. I think you were right on Wright....

[TheRivernator]

Cal, everything is fine except for Pedroia on the bench. NO WAY IN HELL THAT MUST HAPPEN!!!! He must be playing everyday at Pawtucket at shortstop hopefully, and if ready by mid-season be brought up and inserted into the lineup for the weak hitting and slumping Gonzales. You don't bring a young player like that up to sit. NEVER NEVER NEVER.

 

Pedroia will find out his position this spring training. He'll get his shot to prove his position this ST and we shall see how he measures up. I think he is your Loretta replacement next yr....

[riverside sluggers]

Wouldnt you actually say moreso the shortstop position for 2007? Why else would they sign Alex Gonzalez to a 1 season contract? One in which that is guaranteed only if he makes it through spring training. There's not that much of a deep FA market in shortstops really. On WEEI it was discussed that the Sox could end up extending Loretta's contract by 1 or 2 more seasons to allow more time for Jed Lowrie to move up in the ranks.

[TheRivernator]

Wouldnt you actually say moreso the shortstop position for 2007? Why else would they sign Alex Gonzalez to a 1 season contract? One in which that is guaranteed only if he makes it through spring training. There's not that much of a deep FA market in shortstops really. On WEEI it was discussed that the Sox could end up extending Loretta's contract by 1 or 2 more seasons to allow more time for Jed Lowrie to move up in the ranks.

 

I think the jury is out on Pedroia. If he is being billed as the SS of the future, shouldnt they assess how good of a MLB SS he would be? His arm and his size are a huge question mark for SS, but not so much for 2b. When he comes to ST, he'll get his chance to measure up to AGon, a premier defensive SS. If he shows that he can handle his own at the position, then he may be the SS of the future. If he is weakin comparison, then expect Dustin to be your 2b for the next 10 yrs or so....

[riverside sluggers]

so you are under the assumption that alex gonzalez will be resigned to an extension and be the shortstop for 2007? That contract of his shows confidence by the Sox FO that they want him here long term?

 

EDIT;

I think the jury is out on Pedroia. If he is being billed as the SS of the future, shouldnt they assess how good of a MLB SS he would be? His arm and his size are a huge question mark for SS, but not so much for 2b

 

Is that from the scouting report in your head?

 

Scouting Report: Small infielder had a tremendous career at Arizona State. Average power for a middle infielder, with good bat speed and excellent plate discipline. Loves the game and has fantastic instincts. Plays top-notch defense up the middle, named the 2003 National Defensive Player of the Year. Very scrappy; a great teammate. Moved to second base prior to the start of the 2005 season; Boston hasn't ruled out moving Pedroia back to shortstop.

[TheRivernator]

so you are under the assumption that alex gonzalez will be resigned to an extension and be the shortstop for 2007? That contract of his shows confidence by the Sox FO that they want him here long term?

 

EDIT; I think the jury is out on Pedroia. If he is being billed as the SS of the future, shouldnt they assess how good of a MLB SS he would be? His arm and his size are a huge question mark for SS, but not so much for 2b

 

Is that from the scouting report in your head?

 

Scouting Report: Small infielder had a tremendous career at Arizona State. Average power for a middle infielder, with good bat speed and excellent plate discipline. Loves the game and has fantastic instincts. Plays top-notch defense up the middle, named the 2003 National Defensive Player of the Year. Very scrappy; a great teammate. Moved to second base prior to the start of the 2005 season; Boston hasn't ruled out moving Pedroia back to shortstop.

 

You arent getting what I am saying. There are MLB questions about his size and arm as a SS. I never said that his defense to this point has been anything less than spectacular. Also, I do not think AGon will be your SS for more than 1 yr. If Pedroia proves to be more of a 2b, then the sox will likely make a move involving Lowrie to get a SS....

[kreinbihl34]

I would let Pedrioa at 2nd and maybe after this season trade manny and get a top SS spect and sign afon or another person to a 1 year deal and let the prospect get his feet wet. Maybe Joel Guzman? A possible trade of manny for Guzman, Edwin Jackson, and ???

[jsinger121]

edwin jackson was already traded to tampa in the baez deal

[kreinbihl34]

my bad didn't know was just flipping threw pages of spects....thanks for the clarity

[riverside sluggers]

sidetrack: here's an insightful article that us red sox fans will have a good read, detailing about how our boy Paps is the early favorite to win the Rookie of the Year

 

http://www.ecnnews.com/cgi-bin/15/etstory.pl?-sec-Sports+fn-fn-waitis.205-20060205-fn

[Plumpamania]

Dustin Pedrioa will be fine as a MLB SS defensively. College baseball is essentially minor league baseball. You can't accurately measure bats in college (except for OB% for the most part, due to metallic bats), but you can see a guys range, glove work and arm. Pedrioa is top notch.

 

Think David Eckstein with more plate discipline and more pop.

[TheRivernator]

Dustin Pedrioa will be fine as a MLB SS defensively. College baseball is essentially minor league baseball. You can't accurately measure bats in college (except for OB% for the most part, due to metallic bats), but you can see a guys range, glove work and arm. Pedrioa is top notch.

 

Think David Eckstein with more plate discipline and more pop.

 

Eckstein is still a below average fielder due to his size and arm at SS...

[jsinger121]

he doesn't even compare to eckstein....from what i have seen of him he is a better fielder with a much stronger arm and has alot more plate discipline

[TheRivernator]

sidetrack: here's an insightful article that us red sox fans will have a good read, detailing about how our boy Paps is the early favorite to win the Rookie of the Year

 

http://www.ecnnews.com/cgi-bin/15/etstory.pl?-sec-Sports+fn-fn-waitis.205-20060205-fn

two words, Felix Hernandez. I have never seen the combination of size, power, control and youth placed into one person as strongly as I did in this kid. He is dynamite and should be stellar for the next 15-20 years. If he stays healthy and the mariners actually put an O behind him this yr, he may win 15-20 games and likely the ROY. Nothing against Paps who I think is a fantastic young player, but Felix is the whole package....

[TheRivernator]

he doesn't even compare to eckstein....from what i have seen of him he is a better fielder with a much stronger arm and has alot more plate discipline

 

Jesus Christ, he has never taken one MLB swing in his career and all of a sudden he is already better than an all star SS. WOW. Give the kid a chance to get his feet wet first....

[riverside sluggers]

two words, Felix Hernandez. I have never seen the combination of size, power, control and youth placed into one person as strongly as I did in this kid. He is dynamite and should be stellar for the next 15-20 years. If he stays healthy and the mariners actually put an O behind him this yr, he may win 15-20 games and likely the ROY. Nothing against Paps who I think is a fantastic young player, but Felix is the whole package....

 

Just wondering, but Felix had pitched 84 innings last season. I was sure the max is set at 50 for the previous season. Wouldnt that make him in-eligible to be considered for the ROY of 2006?