Baseball Analysts Top-75 Prospects

[VAredsox]

I'm hoping they're right about Papelbon and Lester. Papelbon showed some promise late last year. I'm not too hurt about them trading Hanley.

[ksushi]

I don't know about that, I think scouting is huge in determining which players have the tools to make it in the major leagues. Scouts are underrated because of the notion that its easy. You're wrong. Scouting isn't just limited to the less known players, everyone is scouted. Scouted doesn't mean discovered, it means evaluated.

[guapo34]

Scouting is very important. I just think its far less important when ur picking in the top 3 every single year. Anyone site that reports on the draft always knows who the best players are. Everyone knows whose going top 3-5. I'm not saying scouts aren't important. Just that their jobs are easier when you have top picks.

[jsinger121]

This is a very important draft for the red sox because MLB has been talking about taking away compensation picks for signing free agents. the red sox need to find the best possible players in this draft regardless of position and sign these guys to improve the depth of the farm system.

[Cityofchampions33]

Who are some of the best possiblities that may fall down to our earliest pick?

[Beckett95]

Anyone know were Matt LaPorta from Florida might end up in the draft?? Hes plays 1st and has great power

[Beckett95]

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/story.asp?sport=MLB&storyid=19141

 

top 10 red sox prospects

 

Boston Red Sox

 

1. Andy Marte - 3B - DOB: 10/21/83 - ETA: April 2007

.275/.372/.506, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 83/64 K/BB, 0 SB in 389 AB for Triple-A Richmond

.149/.236/.234, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 10/6 K/BB, 0 SB in 47 AB for Atlanta

 

Marte’s bad 47-at-bat stint for the Braves should hardly qualify as a setback, not when he was so productive in Triple-A as a 21-year-old. The only real source of concern now is the mysterious right elbow injury, which came to light after he was traded to Boston for Edgar Renteria. His agent dismissed the report of him possibly requiring Tommy John surgery as nonsense. Even if Marte did need the surgery and missed 2006 as a result, he’d still be a fabulous prospect. His defense at third base, once a weak point, continues to improve, and he’ll be a .280 hitter with 30 homers and 60-70 walks per year in his prime. Another three to six months in Triple-A should be sufficient.

 

Reports have Marte on his way to Cleveland for Coco Crisp. It’d be an incredibly short-sighted move for Boston.

 

2. Dustin Pedroia - 2B/SS - DOB: 08/17/83 - ETA: April 2007

.324/.409/.508, 8 HR, 40 RBI, 26/34 K/BB, 7 SB in 256 AB for Double-A Portland

.255/.356/.382, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 17/24 K/BB, 1 SB in 204 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket

 

The Red Sox had Pedroia, a 2004 second-round pick out of Arizona State, slide over to second base last year because Edgar Renteria and Hanley Ramirez were ahead of him at shortstop. Now both are gone, and Pedroia could be an option at shortstop for the club for at least a couple of years. His arm is a little light for the position, but he has the range to be adequate right now. For the long-term, it’s still likely that his home will be second base. Pedroia projects as an excellent top-of-the-order hitter, although he won’t steal a bunch of bases. His subpar numbers after reaching Triple-A were greatly the result of a wrist injury. He’s close to being ready now, so the Red Sox should have been content to enter spring training with him and Alex Cora competing for a starting job. Instead, it appears that they’ll sign ex-Marlin Alex Gonzalez.

 

3. Jon Lester - LHP - DOB: 01/07/84 - ETA: May 2007

11-6, 2.61 ERA, 114 H, 163/57 K/BB in 148 1/3 IP for Double-A Portland

 

Because he’s a lefty capable of touching 95 mph with his fastball, Lester has been in demand in trade talks for years now. It was only in 2005 that he developed into a top-flight pitching prospect. Helped along by a cut fastball he developed in 2004, he’s talented enough to be a No. 2 starter in the majors. Better command of his curveball and an improved changeup are necessary if he’s going to fulfill his potential, but since he’s just 22, he has plenty of time to grow. After four months in Triple-A, he could be ready to help out in August if needed. The Red Sox would probably prefer not to use him until 2007.

 

4. Jonathan Papelbon - RHP - DOB: 11/23/80 - ETA: Now

5-2, 2.48 ERA, 59 H, 83/23 K/BB in 87 IP for Double-A Portland

1-2, 2.93 ERA, 21 H, 27/3 K/BB in 27 2/3 IP for Triple-A Pawtucket

3-1, 2.65 ERA, 33 H, 34/17 K/BB in 34 IP for Boston

 

It’s always a good sign when your team’s No. 4 prospect draws comparisons to Roger Clemens. Papelbon, though, still needs to master a second and maybe even a third pitch to go along with his 95-mph fastball. Papelbon’s slider, curveball and changeup all took a backseat last year to the splitter that Curt Schilling taught him. Perhaps another year of experience is all it will take to make the splitter a second swing-and-miss pitch. Exactly what kind of role Papelbon will have this season is uncertain. There’s not going to be room for him in the rotation unless the Red Sox move two pitchers, and there’s some chance that he could open the year at Triple-A Pawtucket. My guess is that he makes the team as a reliever, and if that happens, he might even get a chance to close should Keith Foulke struggle. For the long-term, he projects as a No. 3 starter.

 

5. Craig Hansen - RHP - DOB: 11/15/83 - ETA: July 2006

1-0, 0 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 2 H, 4/0 K/BB in 3 IP for Rookie GCL Red Sox

0-0, 1 Sv, 0.00 ERA, 9 H, 10/1 K/BB in 9 2/3 IP for Double-A Portland

0-0, 0 Sv, 6.00 ERA, 6 H, 3/1 K/BB in 3 IP for Boston

 

Hansen, regarded by some as the top pitcher available in the 2005 draft, got a $4 million major league contract after being drafted 26th overall by the Red Sox. His chances of winning a spot on the club’s playoff roster came to an end after he was shut down with the tired arm in late August, but he debuted in September anyway and pitched three innings. Hansen probably has the stuff to start for a major league team, but the Red Sox will likely continue to develop him as a reliever, with an eye toward making him the closer as soon as 2007. His mid-90s fastball and terrific slider could make him dominant in that role. Because the Red Sox have loaded up on pitching, Hansen won’t have much of a chance of winning a bullpen spot coming out of spring training. He might be back in Boston sometime around the All-Star break.

 

6. Jacoby Ellsbury - OF - DOB: 09/11/83 - ETA: 2008

.317/.418/.432, 1 HR, 19 RBI, 20/24 K/BB, 23 SB in 139 AB for SS Single-A Lowell

 

Ellsbury, who hit .406/.495/.582 during his final year at Oregon State, was receiving comparisons to Johnny Damon even before the Red Sox made him the 23rd pick in the 2005 draft. Selected as the fastest baserunner and third-best defensive player in Baseball America’s tools rankings of draft-eligible collegians, he projects as Boston’s long-term center fielder. It figures to be at least 2008 before he’s ready to make much of a contribution offensively. Ellsbury lacks outstanding offensive upside, but he could get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter, and the steal potential -- he was 23-for-26 in just 35 games last year -- makes him a fantasy prospect.

 

7. Kelly Shoppach - C - DOB: 04/29/80

.253/.352/.507, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 116/46 K/BB, 0 SB in 371 AB for Triple-A Pawtucket

.000/.063/.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 7/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 15 AB for Boston

 

It hardly seems fair, but Shoppach’s embarrassing showing in 15 at-bats for the Red Sox last season seemed to counter what good he did by hitting 26 homers and finishing with an 859 OPS in 371 at-bats in Pawtucket. There didn’t appear to be much interest in him in trade talks over the winter, and now the Red Sox are prepared to go with John Flaherty rather than try Shoppach as the personal catcher for Tim Wakefield this year. Shoppach still figures to be a long-term regular. He’s solid enough defensively that he’ll never have to hit for much of an average to be one of the game’s top 30 catchers. With Jason Varitek signed through 2008, Shoppach will again be a candidate to go in an in-season deal this year.

 

8. Jed Lowrie - SS/2B - DOB: 04/17/84 - ETA: 2009

.328/.429/.448, 4 HR, 32 RBI, 30/34 K/BB, 7 SB in 201 AB for SS Single-A Lowell

 

Lowrie, a second baseman at Stanford, was moved to shortstop after being selected 45th overall by the Red Sox last year and took to the position better than anyone could have anticipated. It still might be more likely that he’ll end up at second base for the long-term, but the Red Sox will keep developing him as a shortstop. Offensively, the switch-hitting Lowrie figures to keep hitting for average and getting on-base. He’s not going to hit for the same kind of power he did in college, so his upside is rather limited. So far, though, all signs point to him becoming an average regular.

 

9. Manny Delcarmen - RHP - DOB: 02/16/82 - ETA: Sept. 2006

4-4, 3 Sv, 3.23 ERA, 31 H, 49/20 K/BB in 39 IP for Double-A Portland

3-1, 2 Sv, 1.29 ERA, 17 H, 23/13 K/BB in 21 IP for Triple-A Pawtucket

0-0, 0 Sv, 3.00 ERA, 8 H, 9/7 K/BB in 9 IP for Boston

 

Delcarmen, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2003, is back in Boston’s top 10 after a two-year absence, though he would have been 11th on the 2005 list. Last year was his first as a reliever, and he finished with strong numbers, although his walk rate was a problem. Delcarmen can get strikeouts with his mid-90s fastball or his power curve. If he does a better job of throwing strikes, he should turn into a quality setup man. The Red Sox probably won’t need him for at least the first few months of this season.

 

10. Brandon Moss - OF - DOB: 09/16/83 - ETA: Aug. 2007

.268/.337/.441, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 129/53 K/BB, 6 SB in 503 AB for Double-A Portland

.236/.291/.389, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 24/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 72 AB for Peoria Saguaros (AFL)

 

Moss, the South Atlantic League’s MVP for hitting .339/.402/.515 in 2004, was jumped up to Double-A last year after just 83 at-bats in the Florida State League and couldn’t muster more than average numbers. Fortunately, he was just 21 at the time. He should go back to hitting for average this year. A left-handed hitter, Moss could be a Jacque Jones-type player, though he’s not quite as good as Jones defensively in right field. Since he’s not going to post very good OBPs or develop into a 25- or 30-homer threat, the Red Sox may prefer to use him as trade bait.

 

Next five: OF Luis Soto, RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Edgar Martinez, OF David Murphy, LHP Abe Alvarez

 

2005 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Shoppach, Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester, Anibal Sanchez, Abe Alvarez, Luis Soto, Brandon Moss, David Murphy

 

2004 top 10: Kevin Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Kelly Shoppach, Charlie Zink, David Murphy, Jon Lester, Chad Spann, Juan Cedeno, Matt Murton, Abe Alvarez

 

2003 top 10: Hanley Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Freddy Sanchez, Phil Dumatrait, Kelly Shoppach, Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Tony Blanco, Josh Hancock, Jerome Gamble

 

imagine in 5 years...

 

Rotation

 

1. Beckett

2. Lester

3. Papelbon

4. Buscholz

5. Bowden

 

Bullpen

 

MRP-Martinez

MRP-Alvarez

SU-Delcarmen

CL-Hansen

 

Lineup

 

1. Ellsbury--CF

2. Pedroia--2B/SS

3. Soto--LF

4. Marte (if not traded)--1ST

5. Moss--RF

6. Shoppach--C

7. Pinckney--3B

8. Egan ???--DH

9. Lowrie--SS/2B

[Beckett95]

redsoxprospects.com's 2007 projected lineups--

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/2007.htm

[riverside sluggers]

Exciting time really. I'll be sure to track David Murphy's AAA season because this and other sources have him as the leading candiadte to replace Trot in 07.

[Beckett95]

the bullpen will be very different next year. Delcarmen, Hansen, Martinez, Van Buren, Dinardo and possibly Merideth.

[seabeachfred]

Beckett, time to alter your future lineup with Marte and Shoppach gone. I agree about Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia, Moss and Pinckney. Those five and our young pitchers are a helluva nucleus and I believe we have enough young players besides these to help put an outstanding team on the team. Then there is FA if necessary.

[Cityofchampions33]

Seems like we got a whole team comn out of the minors, that'd be pretty sick to have like 3/4 of the team come from the farm.