RUMOR: Manny & CLement for Tejada deal done ...

[ksushi]

Yeah, that would be one way to do it. But we would still need a centerfielder.

 

riverside, I don't mean that tejada himself is old, I mean that acquiring tejada would put the pressure on the red sox farm system to fill the holes on the roster. Who knows, maybe they do just let kids fill the holes and acquire one outfielder from somewhere else. I would be all for that, I just don't think its realistic right now.

[elsrbueno]

Manny for Tejada straight up would be a steal for the Red Sox. He's cheaper, younger, faster, plays a harder position, plays more games, plays with more enthusiasm, and is a much better hitter FOR HIS POSITION than Manny Ramirez.

 

Manny's the better hitter, but offense in LF is easier to find than offense at shortstop.

 

I understand that there are better indications of offensive production, but to keep things simple, take homers and RBI. With Manny and Alex Cora in the lineup at left field and shortstop respectively, an accurate prediction might be 48 homers (40 from Manny and 8from Cora) and 160 RBIs (120 from Manny and 40 from Cora).

 

According to ESPN.com, Tejada's seasonal average for HR/RBI are 28/110. This would mean the Red Sox would need to find a left fielder capable of hitting 20 HR and knocking in 50 runs to match the production you'd get from LF and SS in my earlier comparison.

 

Say the Sox signed a guy like Preston Wilson, who's seasonal averages (again, according to ESPN) are 29 HR and 101 RBI (inflated by one monster season in Colorado), and you'd have essentially more production from those two spots than you'd have had with Manny and Alex Cora, or Alex Gonzalez or Royce Clayton or ANY free agent available.

 

My point is this: Manny Ramirez is a rare player, nobody's denying that. However, if you can trade him for a player like Miguel Tejada who can play shortstop you've already replaced more than half of Manny's production and it's much easier to acquire a left fielder who can be a major contributer and bam-- you have essentially replaced Manny Ramirez' offensive output.

 

I think a Manny Ramirez and Matt Clement for Miguel Tejada deal is fair because of the advantages I've already stated that Tejada has over Ramirez. If the Orioles insist that some of Manny (or Clement's) contracts get paid by the Red Sox, I think the Red Sox should insist on getting an outfielder back. The quality of that outfielder is obviously going to depend on how much money the Red Sox cover. Manny's got 3 years and $60 million left. Tejada's got 5 years and (I think) $60 million left. So, the long-term money difference is Matt Clement's contract, which (I'm going from memory here) has 2 years and $16 million left.

 

I propose the following ideas:

Boston pays Baltimore $10 million over the next 2 years and gets Jay Gibbons back.

OR

Boston pays Baltimore $7 million over the next 2 years and gets Nick Markakis back.

OR

Boston pays Baltimore $5 million over the next 2 years and gets Luis Matos back.

 

Under options 1 or 3, that player steps in as an everyday player for Boston. Matos would be the centerfielder, Gibbons left field. If the case was Markakis, he wouldn't be ready to step in immediately but would provide the Sox with some depth in the outfield for future seasons.

 

Personally, I like each of these ideas for different reasons. Matos is the least desirable player of the trio, but the Sox are getting more financial relief in the deal.

 

My favorite is option # 1. Assuming Jay Gibbons can repeat his 2005 season (26 HR 79 RBI), him and Miguel Tejada (26 HR, 98 in 2005) are about the same as a duo of Manny Ramirez (45/144) and Alex Cora (3/24). Considering Cora was a part time player in 2005, his numbers would probably look more like 5/40 as a full-timer, the totals are as follows:

 

MR/AC: 50/194

MT/JG: 52/177

 

Without Damon in the leadoff spot I'd imagine Manny's RBI numbers to decline, because no way Loretta/Youkilis is as good as Damon/Renteria last season.... which puts these numbers a lot closer than they are now.

 

Depending on the player received (be it Matos/Markakis/Gibbons) the Sox need to either fill centerfield or left field. Assuming Matos is the most likely candidate, they still have one major trade chip in David Wells, who could be sent to Arizona in a package for Shawn Green or to LA for JD Drew. Both would represent a defensive upgrade over Manny in left and both are contractual headaches left over from previous GMs that could be moved. If I had my choice I'd go with Drew based on the fact that he's younger and in general better and hope like hell he can stay on the field by playing half his games in Fenway's left field and potentially taking a "day off" to DH.

 

Under that senario the Sox would sport a linup like so:

Loretta

Youk

Ortiz

Tejada

Nixon

Loretta

Drew

Varitek

Matos

 

Not bad at all. Certainly much deeper than the current starting 9.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Looks about right with the exception of Loretta hitting twice...

 

haha it happens to the best of us..excellent post.

 

Clearly the Red Sox would be lacking in speed but would be able to hit the ball as well as they ever have. Not to mention our bullpen looks strong on paper and rotation could be much improved with Josh Beckett.

 

I wouldn't mind bringing in Matos and lets just say we trade Wells for JD Drew (who I like more). I think its still possible the Red Sox could make a play for Corey Patterson who seems to have no use in Chicago. I know we wouldn't have much left to trade if we moved Manny, Clement, and Wells but I still think there is a chance. That would allow the outfield to be made up of Nixon, Patterson, Drew, and Matos. Yes they are all lefty but then again...our infield is all righty. I would rather see that lineup:

 

1. Patterson (L)

2. Loretta ®

3. Ortiz (L)

4. Tejada ®

5. Drew (L)

6. Lowell ®

7. Nixon (L)

8. Varitek (S)

9. Youkilis ®

[elsrbueno]

Looks about right with the exception of Loretta hitting twice...

 

haha it happens to the best of us..excellent post.

 

Clearly the Red Sox would be lacking in speed but would be able to hit the ball as well as they ever have. Not to mention our bullpen looks strong on paper and rotation could be much improved with Josh Beckett.

 

I wouldn't mind bringing in Matos and lets just say we trade Wells for JD Drew (who I like more). I think its still possible the Red Sox could make a play for Corey Patterson who seems to have no use in Chicago. I know we wouldn't have much left to trade if we moved Manny, Clement, and Wells but I still think there is a chance. That would allow the outfield to be made up of Nixon, Patterson, Drew, and Matos. Yes they are all lefty but then again...our infield is all righty. I would rather see that lineup:

 

1. Patterson (L)

2. Loretta ®

3. Ortiz (L)

4. Tejada ®

5. Drew (L)

6. Lowell ®

7. Nixon (L)

8. Varitek (S)

9. Youkilis ®

 

Thought Lowell, typed Loretta-- oh well, you get my point.

 

Matos is right handed, and if Patterson could be acquired along with Matos that would make Matos a 4th outfielder but with Nixon and Drew injury prone, 4th outfielder in Boston is not the worst job to have. I've stated in multiple threads that I'd like to see the Red Sox go after Patterson because he's everything the Red Sox aren't-- young, cheap, and athletic.... but assuming Clement and Wells are traded, what would the Sox have left to send the Cubs for Patterson?

 

I like the idea of getting Patterson along with the other moves and your lineup that you propose is strong enough IMO with an improved pitching staff and improved defense to win the division. It's just a matter of getting those guys here which is obviously easier said than done.

[Beckett95]

Looks about right with the exception of Loretta hitting twice...

 

haha it happens to the best of us..excellent post.

 

Clearly the Red Sox would be lacking in speed but would be able to hit the ball as well as they ever have. Not to mention our bullpen looks strong on paper and rotation could be much improved with Josh Beckett.

 

I wouldn't mind bringing in Matos and lets just say we trade Wells for JD Drew (who I like more). I think its still possible the Red Sox could make a play for Corey Patterson who seems to have no use in Chicago. I know we wouldn't have much left to trade if we moved Manny, Clement, and Wells but I still think there is a chance. That would allow the outfield to be made up of Nixon, Patterson, Drew, and Matos. Yes they are all lefty but then again...our infield is all righty. I would rather see that lineup:

 

1. Patterson (L)

2. Loretta ®

3. Ortiz (L)

4. Tejada ®

5. Drew (L)

6. Lowell ®

7. Nixon (L)

8. Varitek (S)

9. Youkilis ®

 

i like the idea of patterson to, but he cant lead off or bat anywhere in the top of the lineup. Hes career OBP is an awful .293. He strikes out way to much and doesnt get enough walks. He does have 30 hr/30 sb potential though and is only 26. Maybe bat him 8th or 9th, but I think hes just as good as Matos

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

i like the idea of patterson to, but he cant lead off or bat anywhere in the top of the lineup. Hes career OBP is an awful .293. He strikes out way to much and doesnt get enough walks. He does have 30 hr/30 sb potential though and is only 26. Maybe bat him 8th or 9th, but I think hes just as good as Matos

 

Its all about the opportunity presented. Corey Patterson would be hitting in Fenway Park with solid protection in the lineup. I have him leading off because of his speed. In the end if he can make some adjustments there is no reason to think he wouldn't be able to produce. Most of the time I go by past performance but I see too much potential in this kid. He was supposed to be a star and is still young enough to produce that projection.

 

We are getting off topic here but I think we are all on the same track. I would love to see the Red Sox aquire the talented prospect mentioned. He has a better chance of being better than Matos. Gibbons is a real solid player but I think his ceiling may be reached. I would take the young kid and find another solution for the outfield.

 

Having a group of Nick Markakis, Andy Matre, Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Dustin Pedroia, Kelly Shoppach, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie is quite impressive for position prospects.

[ksushi]

I wouldn't mind Patterson, but Drew I don't think is a possibility. He would cost far to much and is far to much of a risk. I'd love a healthy JD Drew, but I'll pass for now simply because the cost and the risk just won't match up.

 

Els, you've brought me closer to being happy with Tejada than anyone has, closer than I thought possible

[Cityofchampions33]

I wouldn't mind getting Green at all, of whom has 19+ HRs for about the past decade. He is still a solid hitter and combined with a back-to-normal Lowell, and improved power at SS, 2B, and maybe even 1B (due to Millar's dismal year) we could get back whatever we lose in Manny. If we get Markakis out of this deal it is an even better deal for us. If we could get Patterson, I would be happy as he is a better option than preston Wilson, or giving up Lester/papelbon for Reed.

[ORS]

Are the D-backs still shopping green? That is an idea. I like green a lot he'd be a very good replacement in left field if the Tejada deal goes through.

 

and example, I'd be happy to see the metrics that make Tejada as valuable as manny. I don't know if they exsist.

Ksushi, don't take this the wrong way, but you ought to lay off the s***.

 

From the New Manny Rumor thread.

 

Page 1

3-2-1 VORP

Tejada - 69.0

Manny - 70.1

 

3-2-1 WARP1

Tejada - 7.9

Manny - 6.9

 

Offensively*, Tejada is just a tick below Manny when you compare them to a replacement level player at their given positions. When you throw defense into the mix, as WARP does, Tejada has more value over his replacement than Manny does.

 

*I'm not suggesting that Tejada is anywhere near the caliber hitter that Manny is, just that he is comparable to Manny when you compare them to replacement level. Since it is easier to find a decent hitting LF this year than it is to find a decent hitting SS, I think Tejada plus Manny's replacement will be better than Manny plus Edgar's.

 

Then, on Page 2, you ask for an explanation why people like the Tejada/Manny trade.

Ok, I really want someone to give me a good detailed response to this because I have a burning question no one has been able to answer. You have an oppurtunity to show a very stubborn man the light and bring him to the land of milk and honey. I will change my stance on this if someone can tell me why I should because everyone seems to blindly love this Miguel Tejada, if that even is his real name.

 

I respond later on the same page with:

Here's the answer to your Tejada question. I like this trade because Tejada is better than a replacement player at his postion by a larger margin than Manny is at his position. I posted the numbers that support this on the first page of this thread.

Can somebody find out if he has me on ignore?

[Beckett95]

The FO has to be ready to kill Manny after what hes put them through so far. This whole offseason was based around Manny, they centered most of their attention around Manny. Now, they finally have a legitamate chance at giving him his wish, and he uses his 10/5 powers to decline it. If he wants his two option years picked up, no one will trade for him. He wanted to get of Boston so much and he had his chance and doesnt want to take it. Why cant Manny just go to Baltimore, forgot about the extension, just go to Baltimore where you will be out of Boston, which was his only request.

[ksushi]

Ksushi, don't take this the wrong way, but you ought to lay off the s***.

 

From the New Manny Rumor thread.

 

Page 1

 

 

Then, on Page 2, you ask for an explanation why people like the Tejada/Manny trade.

 

 

I respond later on the same page with:

 

Can somebody find out if he has me on ignore?

 

guy, chill, I don't know what you mean by 'lay off the s***', but maybe you should too. Sorry I didn't see you're post, ill be sure to read everything a lot more carefully as not to hurt your feelings. I hope my deepest apologies are enough to hopefully one day, let you forgive me for the horrible disservice i have done you.

 

...

[ORS]

guy, chill, I don't know what you mean by 'lay off the s***', but maybe you should too. Sorry I didn't see you're post, ill be sure to read everything a lot more carefully as not to hurt your feelings. I hope my deepest apologies are enough to hopefully one day, let you forgive me for the horrible disservice i have done you.

 

...

I was a joke. Relax, heck, go to that arts-&-crafts link you posted in another thread. You are a self-proclaimed phishead, and a lot of phisheads smoke some funky s***, hence the joke; I know I did in my younger years. Lighten up.

[ksushi]

I'm light, hence all the sarcasm. I'm always heavy with the sarcasm, it may read angry or annoyed or whatever but thats actually because I'm nothing more than a large pain in the ass when I decide to be sarcastic toward you, which is usually always. Good natured usually, not always. I am a sarcastic tool. No lightening up needed, no arts and crafts needed either, hell that would make me more angry than I already seem.

[riverside sluggers]

O's lose Burnitz, say no to Red Sox

Outfielder chooses Pirates; Boston offer may need sweetener

By Jeff Zrebiec and Dan Connolly

Sun Reporters

Originally published January 3, 2006, 11:34 PM EST

 

The Orioles lost one coveted outfielder Tuesday and have gotten no closer to trading for another. Two club sources said Tuesday that the Orioles will not accept the Boston Red Sox's offer of All-Star outfielder Manny Ramirez, pitcher Matt Clement and cash for disgruntled shortstop Miguel Tejada. While it still is possible that Tejada will land in Boston, it is clear that Orioles officials are looking for the Red Sox to sweeten the deal.

 

Speculation about the trade, which has been discussed for nearly a month since Tejada publicly requested a change of scenery, has heated up the past two days after free-agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz, who had verbally agreed to a two-year, $12 million deal with the Orioles, broke off talks with the club and decided to sign elsewhere.

 

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported yesterday that Burnitz had agreed to a deal with the Pirates, guaranteeing him one year at $6 million with an option for 2007. Howard Simon, Burnitz's agent, confirmed that the Orioles had made the best offer with the two guaranteed years. However, Simon objected to certain language in the Orioles' contract regarding the physical that players must take before the signing becomes official.

 

"It definitely was us more than the Orioles," said Simon on the decision to break the verbal agreement, quashing speculation that the Orioles had pulled out of the deal because they were about to land Ramirez. "We didn't want to do it, but it had to do with some language that was unacceptable to us concerning medical examinations. There also appeared to be some uncertainty on Burnitz's part about where he'd fit in with the club if the Orioles acquired Ramirez.

 

And there still is a possibility that the Orioles will wind up with Ramirez, though several obstacles remain, starting with the Orioles' asking price for Tejada. The Orioles apparently would prefer getting one of the Red Sox's young pitchers, Jon Lester or Jon Papelbon, but both are believed to be untouchable.

 

Damn Orioles, be gone. Boston cant ask for Nick Markaksi, but its alright for them to request Paps or Lester?

[Cityofchampions33]

Red Sox FO makin a stand

[riverside sluggers]

I do give respect to that front office that they are holding onto the future in Papelbon and Lester

[elsrbueno]

The Orioles can suck it.

 

I'd rather call Manny's bluff and watch him sit out spring training than send either Papelbon or Lester to Baltimore.

 

At least if Manny's sitting out we get better defense and don't have to pay him.

 

If that article is true, the Orioles are being rediculous.

[Beckett95]

still hope the original deal of clement and manny for miggy can get done. No matter what deal the Orioles make, it sounds like they will have Miggy gone by the end of the week. The sox are still supposedly the front runner.

 

soxfan10: Q: Where are the Red Sox and Orioles at in their trade talks involving Manny and Miguel Tejada?

 

PeterGammons: I get the impression that they're stalled. Clearly the Jeromy Burnitz fiasco and most everyone assumes that he failed the physical, complicates the deal because it makes it more difficult for the Orioles to trade an outfielder. It's my understanding that the money issue is a problem. Manny's agent Greg Genkse told me yesterday that the option was not going to be a problem. But the Orioles indicated something different to me. I still think there's a fair chance it happens because the Red Sox want it to happen and David Ortiz is clearly fueling the Tejada fire.

 

 

GammonsisKing: Q: What is your prediction? Who will be starting at SS, 1B, and CF for the Red Sox on opening day?

 

PeterGammons: This will be a heck of a guess because I'm sure I'm going to be wrong. At 12:45 p.m. on Jan. 4, I would guess Tejada at SS, Reed in CF, and Youkilis at 1B. But the only one I'm confident of is Youkilis

 

Barry: Q: Peter, Should the Manny-Tejada trade actually happen. Can we expect to see Tejada's production numbers increase because of the Boston line-up, and conversely, Manny's numbers decline because of the Baltimore lineup?

 

PeterGammons: Tejada's numbers will increase because of the lineup around him. But I think Manny is born to play in Baltimore. He's a right centerfield hitter. His greatest power has been minimized by fenway park. I can easily see him hitting 50 homers in Camden Yards. In my mind, as great a player as Tejada is, if the Orioles can get Ramirez and Clement, I personally think they would be crazy to turn it down.