Potential Trade?

[elsrbueno]

http://www.nypost.com/sports/yankees/17501.htm

 

This article (although it's a Yankee source) is reporting the Yankees are interested in Beltran mostly to block the Red Sox from him.

 

2 questions:

 

1. Should the Red Sox try to get Beltran (the cost according to this article is Abe Alvarez, Kevin Youkilis, and a couple other prospects).

 

2. What would that mean for Johnny Damon?

 

My 2 cents:

 

1. I have a hard time giving up Youkilis, I really like what he's done so far for the team. I think this is too much to give up for a rent-a-player, but Beltran would look pretty good in CF for Boston. You've got to give up quality to get quality, so maybe give up Alvarez IF you think you can sign Beltran only. Keep Youk though, and if the Royals insist on Youk, pass on the deal.

 

2. IF Beltran joined the Red Sox today, I think this means doom for Kevin Millar, not Johnny Damon. Damon has a lot more range than Manny Ramirez, and would probably shift to left field if this move went down (making Ramirez a DH). I really like Millar as a person, but he hasn't produced like we all hoped he would this year.

[CalvnHobs6]

No. No, no, no. As awesome as Beltran is, if it's going to cost Alvarez and Youkilis, no. They are two top prospects. If they want to trade with this organization, they'll have to steer clear of the minors. I'm pretty sure Theo won't consider dealing Youk.

[yeszir]

Yea, why not throw in Shoppach and Ramirez while you're at it? Hell, add Charlie Zink in there too! As much as I like Beltran, and as much as I'd hate to see the Yankees get him, he'd cause more problems on the sox than if we just let him go.

 

Plus, maybe if the Yankees get him, Steinbrenner will have a heart attack when he realizes the yankee payroll is fast approacing 250 million. Maybe he'll get arthritis and die from writing all those zeroes on the checks.

[CalvnHobs6]

Originally posted by yeszir@Jun 18 2004, 09:58 AM

Maybe he'll get arthritis and die from writing all those zeroes on the checks.

If only life were that kind.

[dirtdogman5]

Would I let go of Youk? Yeah sure, if it meant Beltran. Alvarez? No way in hell I want him traded. He's our future #2 starter and a great pitcher. Shoppach I think has to stay with the uncertainty of Tek next year, and plus, Zenny would have a heart attack. Murton, Murphy, Lester, and West aren't going anywhere either. Unlike the Yankees, Theo has to grow an actual farm system.

[Zenny]

Insider sources close to Allard Baird says he wants "ML ready 3B's and C's as a must in any deal". The Sox have the best 3B/C tandem in Youkilis and Shoppach and both will be ready next season. Still, I doubt that Youkilis and Shoppach would be enough and Abe Alvarez would have to be thrown in as well.

 

In my opinion, this is way too much for a guy who is absolutely going to test the free agent market and there are no guarantees out there. We're giving up a left-handed #2 starter, a .300/.450 3B and a Gold Glove caliber 25-homerun catcher for Beltran? No f'ing way. With the way things are going now, all three of those players would be starting next season or able to start.

 

You guys know me, I'm the prospect nut, so my opinion may be a little biased, but I just see this as way too much for the most overhyped player in the game with no guarantee at signing him long-term.

[elsrbueno]

I agree with the theory of developing prospects too, which is why I brought up the question in the first place.

 

I think Baird is doing the right thing shooting for the stars at first. Hell, maybe someone will get desperate and give him what he wants. I also think that if nobody does, the trading price will go down.

 

Zenny, you know more about the Sox prospects than I do. What would be a reasonable price for Beltran given that he's a 3-month rental?

[yeszir]

Originally posted by Zenny@Jun 18 2004, 11:05 AM

You guys know me, I'm the prospect nut, so my opinion may be a little biased, but I just see this as way too much for the most overhyped player in the game with no guarantee at signing him long-term.

Well, in this case, prospect nut or not, you're opinion is 110% justified.

[trot4mvp]

Hey, we all know that Theo and Co. will not make a deal if it's not good for the team, both in the present AND in the future. They know the future value of Youk, AA, Shoppach, etc., and I trust that they will not give up any of these prospects for 4 months of Carlos Beltran.

 

Here's my reasoning: Suppose 2 out of the 3 prospects above give at least 4 years of quality offensive/defensive/pitching production to the Sox. What is more valuable? 4 months of Carlos Beltran (assuming there is no way we can re-sign him) or 8 years combined of quality production from our top prospects? I say stick with the prospects, and I have a feeling that's what the Sox are thinking too.

[elsrbueno]

I agree. Epstein still says the one trade he wishes he could have back was the Pittsburgh deal last year where he sent Freddy Sanchez over there for Sauerbeck and Suppan.

 

Granted, Beltran would no doubt turn out better than both these guys (who were rentals, and did not play well at all in Boston), but he's gotta have that in the back of his mind.

 

Theo has made mostly great moves, so I trust in his ability to judge deals (and all the people working for him helping him making decisions), and that he'll do what's best for the team in the end.

[YanksHater213]

i have said this about 5,000,000,000 times, but ill say it once more

 

YOUKS CANT BE TRADED, EVEN FOR BELTRAN, HE IS WAY TO VALUABLE

[Zenny]

Originally posted by elsrbueno@Jun 18 2004, 11:03 AM

Zenny, you know more about the Sox prospects than I do. What would be a reasonable price for Beltran given that he's a 3-month rental?

KC wants some combination of pitchers, thirdbaseman, catchers and outfielders (in that order):

 

Juan Perez- 25 year-old lefty who's been stellar for AA Portland (~1.80 ERA) with upside comparable to Damaso Marte, 2005 ETA

Jon Papelbon- 22 year-old righty who is leading the FSL in K's (89?) and has a 2.89 ERA and was an All-Star, mid-'05 ETA

Chad Spann- 20 year-old righty 3B; quick, good defense, patient at the plate and shows projectable power, currently on DL but should return soon, '06-'07 ETA

 

Granted, that's less than the previously proposed package, but it is far more reasonable for a three-month rental. I don't know Allard Baird and I haven't had contact with him to ask him what he specifically wants, but this is what I would propose and gaging from his reaction I would add or subtract.

 

I wouldn't worry about the Yankees getting Beltran at any point this season. They have only one true good prospect in Dioner Navarro, but he'll be lucky to be 1/2 the player Shoppach will be. Eric Duncan is tremendously overhyped because he's a NJ product and if he does make the bigs, he won't be ready until 2008. Robinson Cano is the only other player who has even a remote shot at being a regular, but he'd be a below average one at that. Hell, Kenny Perez is better than Cano and he wouldn't even crack the Sox top 30. They have literally nothing useful for anyone, including themselves. No worries there.

 

My guess is that Beltran is going to go to the Padres with Joe Randa for Sean Burroughs, Xavier Nady and a PTBNL. I think SD is getting shafted if they do that, but I don't think Kevin Towers is smart enough to realize that this is a stupid deal for him.

[Zenny]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/reds...ke_beltran_bid/

 

Dammit, this sucks. Baird is really hot on Youkilis, Shoppach and Juan Cedeno. Don't do it, Theo!!!!

 

Jesus, does anyone know of any way that we could contact these guys to tell them that we hate this deal? He's not going to sign with us until he tests the free agent market and you know the Yankees are going to do everything within their power to steal him away from us. And as Jose Contreras shows, they certainly have the means by which to outbid us. I'm not ready to give up next season's everyday 3B and C (both of which are outstanding, by the way) for three months of the most over-hyped player in baseball. If this deal gets done, I may have to become a Royals fan.

[YanksHater213]

everyone is high on Youks, he may be the most highly touted prospects this season

[Zenny]

Originally posted by YanksHater213@Jun 19 2004, 09:53 AM

everyone is high on Youks, he may be the most highly touted prospects this season

That's true and for good reason. I'm serious, this deal is really stupid for the Red Sox. Ten years of service a piece from Shoppach and Youkilis and a hard-throwing lefty are far more valuable than three months of Beltran. Man, this deal drives me crazy.

[yawkeyway]

It's a stupid thing for the Red Sox to do, and Theo will realize this if he hasn't already. Sure, some retarded fans will cry foul, especially if he goes to the MFY, but it really is in the best interests of the sox.

 

We have a championship calibre team now, we don't need to deplete our farm system entirely to win. I've never been a fan of trading away your future for a few months of an established player (Freddy Sanchez?). This deal, if it were to happen, would piss me off immensly.

[NomarMannyOrtizzle]

actually i think that this is a good trade for the red sox. And heres why:

 

 

if the Red Sox were to trade for Beltran, they would make sure they could definitely re-sign Beltran. If I were Theo, if I acquired Beltran, I would offer him $14 Mil. X 7 years right off the bat. Thats the kind of money Beltran would be looking for, so whyt would he bother going therough the free agent market if he got the money he wanted already.

 

I also strongly believe that the Red Sox will re-sign Varitek for 3 to 4 more years, and he will hold down the fort through 2007.

 

As much as I'd hate to lose Shoppach and Youkilis, Beltran will emerge as one of the greatest Outfielders, and he is worth the price we will be giving up. Juan Cedeno does look good, but he lacks command and that could hurt him.

 

My Final point is that Beltran is only 26, a year older than Youkilis. With Mueller/Bellhorn here for at least another year ( hopefully) they will be able to fill in while the Sox wait for Chad Spann to mature. Spann should be up in the bigs by 2006, and he is five years younger than Youkilis, and from what i understand is a better fielder, is faster, and has equal power. The only thing Chad Spann lacks from Youkilis is that Youki is an on-base machine, but Spann will get on a decent amount of times also.

Shoppach is the killer in this whole deal. There is no other great catching prospect the Red Sox have, and if the Sox don't re-sign Varitek ( WHICH WON'T HAPPEN, I GUARANTEE WE WILL RE-SIGN HIM ) we will be screwed. But then again that is an IF.

 

So, finally, the Red Sox should make this trade.

[Zenny]

You just posted that on NetSports, so I might as well put my responses on here as well:

 

Post 1: There are no guarantees that Beltran and Varitek re-sign, that is the huge sticking point.

 

Varitek has been a big part of this franchise since 1998. Don't you think he would have re-signed by now if he had every intention to return? He's going to test the market and see what he can get. With the money he's asking for and the high level that Shoppach has been playing at since mid-May, I don't see Varitek returning.

 

So, if a player who's been a cornerstone of the franchise for 6 years doesn't re-sign before the season is done, what makes you think that the superstar center-fielder who would have only been here for 3-4 months is going to do so? They have the same agent and the exact same intention: to test the free agent market.

 

Folks, this doesn't make any sense. Beltran is going to go on the market and the Yankees are going to make a huge bid for him. We know the Sox can spend, but they cannot spend like the Yankees can. We would be giving up two great, cheap players and positions of need for the Red Sox (who are both ready to start in '05, probably even later this season) for a three to four month rental who will just go to play for the Yankees next season.

 

What the Sox need to do is shore up their rotation first. Let's get Schill's ankle, Wake's thumb, Kim's back and Lowe's psyche back on track and then see where this pitching staff is. We do not need to make changes to the offense that broke the all-time SLG% record. We need to start preventing runs.

 

Post 2: Another thing to consider are the holes that we would create in other aspects of the team after the season is done. So the Sox sign Beltran for $15 million a season. That means Pedro, Williamson, Lowe, Varitek and Nomar would all have to be sacrificed in order to do so. Now we need two more starting pitchers, a set-up man, a SS and a C (because Shoppach was foolishly traded away). Hey, at least we have the super star center-fielder. Guys, if we do this we are turning into the Texas Rangers.

 

We should wait for Kim to come back, see how he performs and then make a trade for a pitcher based upon his and others' performances.

[NomarMannyOrtizzle]

To your first post, Theo should only do this trade if he knows they can re-sign Beltran

[yeszir]

Wait, what's your name on netsports?

[NomarMannyOrtizzle]

GOSOX88

[Tek04]

varitek needs to be resigned more than any other player...without him on the team...the pitching staff would be terrible

[elsrbueno]

Peter Gammons reports on a new twist possible for the Beltran deal. Still don't like it, as the Sox are still giving up Youk and Shoppach.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1825878

[stocker323]

Originally posted by elsrbueno@Jun 22 2004, 10:20 AM

Peter Gammons reports on a new twist possible for the Beltran deal. Still don't like it, as the Sox are still giving up Youk and Shoppach.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1825878

I also believe they would be sending williamson to the A's. IT would be a stupid deal in my opinion.

[trot4mvp]

I hate when Billy Beane tries to work his way into trades like this. Instead of just losing Youk and Shopp, we'd lose those two and SWilly because BB decided to open his big mouth. I don't like this deal at all...you'd think Baird would learn his lesson after losing Dye, Damon, etc. to Beane over the last couple of years.

[elsrbueno]

I agree that this is still a really bad idea. I think Theo should just wait. Here's why:

 

Beltran isn't going to New York with Baird's current demands. The Yankees don't have what it takes to meet his current demands. The only team that looks like it might is Oakland, and I doubt Beane would give up 3 good prospects for a free agent to be. Just doesn't make sense for Oakland given their ability to keep free agents.

 

San Diego isn't giving up Burroughs, either.

 

For a deal to be made, Baird is going to have to lower his demands. I believe he will, because he knows Beltran's not staying in KC, and he wants SOMEthing to show for him.

 

The longer this plays out, the worse it gets for KC because teams will be willing to give up less (less guaranteed Beltran-service time). There will be somewhat of a bidding war, but in the end the Sox will be forced to give up less.

 

I hate the idea of giving up Youkilis, Shoppach, and a pitching prospect, and I hate giving up Williamson more. Williamson helps the team NOW, and the team missed him while he was out.

[elsrbueno]

UPDATE!

 

http://www.majorleaguebaseball.com is reporting KC/Oakland may be involving Houston in a 3-team deal. Here's how things would shake out:

 

Oakland gets: Octavio Dotel

Kansas City gets: Oakland prospects

Houston gets: Beltran

 

 

According to the article, Houston makes BIG changes if this goes down. Lidge becomes closer, Biggio moves back to second base, and Jeff Kent moves to third.

 

Just a different spin on an earlier rumor I posted.

[yeszir]

Originally posted by elsrbueno@Jun 23 2004, 04:48 PM

UPDATE!

 

http://www.majorleaguebaseball.com is reporting KC/Oakland may be involving Houston in a 3-team deal. Here's how things would shake out:

 

Oakland gets: Octavio Dotel

Kansas City gets: Oakland prospects

Houston gets: Beltran

 

 

According to the article, Houston makes BIG changes if this goes down. Lidge becomes closer, Biggio moves back to second base, and Jeff Kent moves to third.

 

Just a different spin on an earlier rumor I posted.

Peter Gammons mentioned this last night on Baseball Tonight. I think it makes sense for all teams involved really.

[Zenny]

I think this trade is going to get done within the next 48 hours.

[YanksHater213]

oaklands bullpen sucks this season compared to last because we took their man!!! (and rhodes is gone too). dotel will be the one piece that would complete their team. beltran wouldnt help houston as much as it would other teams seeing that their hitting is fine the way it is, but they would get they type of player that could lead off which is their only real weakness. but it would really screw up their bullpen. losing a top notch closer and setup man is a killer to any bullpen. and i hear one of oaklands prospects is bairds favorite. so this deal would be fairly good for all teams involved.

 

as for us. we cant lose our best noncloser reliever in swilly. as i have said, all embree does is 90 mph fastballs and timlin is way too inconsistent. but we could have leskanic who i hope can play well as a setup man. youkilis and shoppach need to stay here, end of story. mueller is nearing the end of his career, and varitek and his gay-ass may go somewhere else. we would need youks and shoppach to be here next season, end of story. i hope theo will realize how much this deal will f*** up our future and not do this deal. yes, it will seem good at first, but we wont have a catcher or 3rd baseman when tek and mueller are gone.

 

PLEASE THEO, DONT TRADE YOUKILIS AND SHOPPACH AND SWILLY!!