Official prediction thread

[yeszir]

Post your 2004 baseball predictions in this thread, so we dont have a million different ones.

 

my predictions, I'm keeping it short for now:

sox over cubs in the world series How it gets to that point is irrelevant.

[dirtdogman5]

Since I'm bored I'll my give my full predictions:

AL East

1. Sox

2. MFY

3. BJs

4. O's

5. D'Rays

AL Central

1. Royals

2. ChiSox

3. Twins

4. Guardians

5. Tigers

Al West

1. Angels

2. Mariners

3. A's

4. Rangers

NL East

1. Phillies

2. Marlins

3. Braves

4. Mets

5. Expos

NL Central

1. Cubs

2. Astros

3. Cards

4. Brewers

5. Reds

6. Pirates

NL West

1. Giants

2. Padres

3. Rockies

4. D'backs

5. Dodgers

 

ALDS:

Sox over Royals 3-1

MFY over Angels 3-2

NLDS:

Cubs over Giants 3-0

Phillies over Astros 3-2

ALCS

Sox over MFY 4-2

NLCS

Cubbies over Phils 4-3

World Series

Soxies over Cubs 4-3

 

Did I mention this is the year?!!!!

[yeszir]

Originally posted by dirtdogman5@Apr 2 2004, 08:07 PM

NL West

1. Giants

2. Padres

3. Rockies

4. D'backs

5. Dodgers

 

I was happy with your predictions until I got to this part. Do you really think the giants are going to finish first this season? I agree with the Padres, but in what is the weakest division in baseball, I think that the dbacks have a legitimate shot of winning.

[dirtdogman5]

Originally posted by yeszir+Apr 2 2004, 09:01 PM-->

QUOTE (yeszir @ Apr 2 2004, 09:01 PM)

[yeszir]

Evenly matched in badness I guess. But I do see your point. That division is a tossup.

[FourZeroSix]

'04 Predictions

 

AL West: Oakland

AL Central: Kansas City

AL East: Boston

AL Wildcard: New York

 

NL West: Arizona

NL Central: Chicago

NL East: Philadelphia

NL Wildcard: Houston

 

ALDS

 

Boston over Kansas City (3-0)

New York over Oakland (3-1)

 

NLDS

 

Chicago over Arizona (3-1)

Philadelphia over Houston (3-2)

 

ALCS

 

Boston over New York (4-2)

Chicago over Philadelphia (4-2)

 

World Series

 

Boston over Chicago (4-3)

 

 

Awards

 

AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero

AL CYA: Pedro Martinez (Curt Schilling)

AL ROY: Bobby Crosby

 

NL MVP: Albert Pujols

NL CYA: Randy Johnson

NL ROY: Kaz Matsui

 

 

Ok, now for the explanation on what some might call "out there" picks.

 

I know that the Athletics lost a lot this past off-season but they still have what has gotten them 90+ wins and postseason births the last few years and it is their pitching, obviously. Hudson is incredible, Zito was still very good last year, Mulder is incredible and healthy and they have Redman, who is excellent for a No. 4 starter and potentially great Rich Harden. May still possess the best rotation in the game. I think the Angels have a VERY good team and I actually think they'll win around 90 games this year but short to Oakland in the west, and not good enough to beat out New York for the WC. Kansas City.. hmm, just because it is up for grabs I suppose and they have one of the best and most underrated players in baseball leading them. Twins lost too much. The AL East could really go either way, but a healthy Pedro and Schilling along with D-Lowe, assuming he pitches more LIKE 2002 than last season, should give the Sox the elusive division title.

 

As for the NL, Chicago and Philadelphia are shoe-ins for their divisions. Houston will take the WC. I pick Arizona to win the west not only because it's so wide open, but that is also assuming they stay relatively healthy, specifically Johnson and Gonzalez, and Brandon Webb's sophomore slump isn't too bad. Johnson got rocked just the other day, which really inflated his numbers making it look like he had a terrible spring. He is strong and determined... although I think he should go back to his old delivery.. that ball-behind-the-back-in-hand thing just doesn't look right. Not only that, but they have added a true slugger who has 6 HR's and 16 RBI's in 12 games at Bank One. Imagine 81 games with the numbers he is capable of putting up. Not only that, but he's an iron man.

 

The Awards...Vlad makes a big splash in Disneyland, gets recognition he deserves and wins MVP despite Angels falling short of October. Pedro the Cy pick simply because he should've had it in 2002 and could've had it last season if the Pen had not blown 5 games for him. Now it is a contract year and he has all the motivation he needs to shut up all the doubters. If not, then Schilling will jump right in and take it. I also see Halladay and Hudson seriously involved.. not exactly far fetched. Crosby.. I don't know, I think he'll be good, how's that?... in the NL, Cards go nowhere but Pujols' numbers are too much and he wins MVP as A-Rod did in Texas last season. The CYA pick is assuming Johnson is healthy and returns to his old form for the most part. Prior was my original pick but missing a month is going to kill him. I'm actually starting to lean towards Kerry Wood. Matsui will win ROY.

 

Basically, these predictions are filled with optimism and assumptions, but aren't they all?

[yeszir]

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/7228833

 

Cbssportsline did an interesting comparison between the padres and the D'backs, but they still chose sf to win the nl west

[dirtdogman5]

I'll add who I think will be the award winners.

 

AL MVP- Vladimir Guerrero

NL MVP- Albert Pujols

AL Cy Young- Barry Zito

NL Cy Young- Mark Prior

AL ROY- Joe Mauer

NL ROY- Edwin Jackson

AL MOY- Terry Francona

NL MOY- Bruce Bochy

AL Rolaids Relief- Mariano Rivera

Nl Rolaids Relief- Eric Gagne

 

AL All Star Starters

P Curt Schilling (Barry Zito)

C Jorge Posada (Pudge Rodriguez)

1B Carlos Delgado (Jason Giambi)

2B Bret Boone (Alfonso Soriano)

3B Alex Rodriguez (Eric Chavez)

SS Nomar Garciaparra (Derek Jeter)

LF Manny Ramirez (Magglio Ordonez)

CF Carlos Beltran (Vernon Wells)

RF Ichiro (Gary Sheffield)

 

NL All Star Starters

P Mark Prior (Randy Johnson)

C Jason Kendall (Mike Lieberthal)

1B Albert Pujols (Todd Helton)

2B Jose Vidro (Jeff Kent)

3B Scott Rolen (Mike Lowell)

SS Edgar Renteria (Rafael Furcal)

LF Barry Bonds (Chipper Jones)

CF Mike Cameron (Jim Edmonds)

RF Sammy Sosa (Miguel Cabrera)

[FourZeroSix]

Originally posted by dirtdogman5@Apr 3 2004, 02:36 PM

I'll add who I think will be the award winners.

 

 

NL Cy Young- Mark Prior

 

Everyone's favorite pick. I don't think he'll get it this year since he won't be back until May at the earliest. However, Halladay had a winless April last season and ended up taking the AL CYA, so anything is possible.

[yeszir]

Originally posted by FourZeroSix+Apr 3 2004, 03:29 PM-->

QUOTE (FourZeroSix @ Apr 3 2004, 03:29 PM)

[FourZeroSix]

Actually, there are:

 

ERIC GAGNE - Dodgers

 

In 2003, Dodgers closer Eric Gagne became the first relief pitcher to win the Cy since Dennis Eckersly accomplished the feat in 1992. Although to many, a reliever winning the Cy is ridiculous, it’s really hard to argue against Gagne after the numbers he posted. Out of 55 save opportunities, Gagne blew a grand total of zero chances. With 137 strikeouts in just 82.1 innings, Gagne posted an outrageous K/9 of 14.98… or you could just say 15 strikeouts per nine innings to go along with a cool 1.20 ERA. Nobody before Gagne ever had two 50 save seasons… Gagne has two back-to-back 50+ save seasons in his first two years on the job. He has saved 107 of 111 opportunities, and the last 63 in a row (a ML record).

 

RANDY JOHNSON - D'Backs

 

Every year, it seems, Randy Johnson is written off because of his age. And every year, it seemed, Johnson would prove them wrong by delivering an even better season than before. In 2003, it looked as if the skeptics had finally gotten their wish. RJ fell hard…he required surgery to remove lose cartilage that was floating freely in his knee. When he came back prematurely to help Arizona’s October chances, he wasn’t the same. Six months later at 40 years old, Johnson looks like he’s had the time needed to heal… he looks strong, feels strong and is more determined than ever to regain his former dominance. Taking a glance at the radar guns in his Spring Training outings and seeing 97-98 is a sign of good things to come. He has his heat… he has perhaps the nastiest pitch the game has ever seen with his 91-92 mph slider. He has the determination and intensity to post the triple crown numbers that earned him a unanimous 5th Cy Young Award in 2002.

 

KERRY WOOD - Cubs

 

It's already well known that Kerry Wood has the best pure stuff probably in all of baseball. His former catcher, experts and knowledgable fans have all recognized this. Last season, Wood posted career-bests in Wins, ERA and strikeouts including leading the ML in K's (266). This Spring, he's shown much better control while posting a 5-0 record with a 1.05 ERA. I'm not a big fan of ST, but it's certainly more encouraging to see good numbers (Wood) than bad ones (Pedro).

[yeszir]

I doubt Gagne can do it again, its not every day that a closer wins the cy young. RJ might be too old, he was injured for part of last year, and I think that he's losing his stuff.

 

As for wood, well, I forgot about him.

[FourZeroSix]

Well, you asked me who I thought jumped out as contenders.

 

Others not mentioned:

 

Josh Beckett

Brandon Webb

Roy Oswalt

[cedarites]

Also Jason Schmidt, I know he's coming off surgery and is on the DL, but if you can mention Prior then Schmidt definitely deserves mention.

[rockin in the free world]

my predictions

 

AL East: Yankees

AL Central: Royals

AL West: Angels

Wildcard: As

 

AL Champ: Yankees

 

 

NL East: Marlins

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: D backs

NL Wildcard: Astros

 

NL Champ: Cubs

 

WS champ: Yankees

 

sorry but im not gonna go and jinx the sox like the rest of you...

[cedarites]

Nothing more fun than making predictions, as long as these are deleted immediately if they're wrong...

 

AL East: Yankees

AL Central: Royals

AL West: Angels

Wild Card: Red Sox

NL East: Braves

NL Central: Cubs

NL West: Padres

Wild Card: Astros

 

Playoffs:

ALDS: Yankees over Royals, Angels over Red Sox

NLDS: Braves over Astros, Cubs over Padres

ALCS: Angels over Yankees

NLCS: Braves over Cubs

World Series: Angels over Braves

 

Awards:

AL Cy Young: Curt Schilling

NL Cy Young: Kerry Wood

AL MVP: Carlos Beltran

NL MVP: Brian Giles

AL ROY: Joe Mauer

NL ROY: Kazuo Matsui

 

I know I'll probably get a lot of questions, especially about the Braves, but that's ok, if I'm wrong I'm wrong, I can live with it, I just figure if the Marlins could do it last year, then the Braves can do it this year. As for the Angels, that's much easier to defend, given it's the same nucleus that won 2 years ago, plus Colon, Guillen, Vladi, and Escobar, whom I think is the real wild card, given that he's out of SkyDome and his era on turf last year was over 2 and half runs higher than it was on grass fields.

[yeszir]

Originally posted by rockin' in the free world@Apr 3 2004, 05:39 PM

sorry but im not gonna go and jinx the sox like the rest of you...

Lol, good call!

[roary]

Alright, now that we've seen a little bit of the season, I think we can revive this and make a second round of predictions, right?

 

I say sox over astros in the world series, to continue the optimism

[roary]

I feel for our losing brothers, the cubs, and choose them to prevail over whatever AL team they face. I just dont want to jinx the sox like all of you are doing. Seeing the cubs win wouldnt be too bad I guess, provided the team they beat isnt ours.