The Red Sox Should Sell Out For Alex Bregman

Bregman should not be the largest FA signing since Price, in 2016.

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman should not be the largest FA signing since Price, in 2016.

That feels like a weak reason to not sign him. Especially considering how many good ones are out there…

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Counterpoint: no.

Solid argument, but I still think the Sox will sign him…

31 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they should, but they won't. 

I go the other way - they shouldn’t but they will…

1 minute ago, notin said:

That feels like a weak reason to not sign him…

My point is, they should have targeted someone better than him over the last 9 winters, and then did what it took to get him.

Signing Bregman reeks of just "settling" on the best of the leftovers just because he'd help the team, and not out of some deep-rooted analysis and vetting.

I felt the same way about Story. He was a knee-jerk reaction signing, meant to appease the fans, and they felt his price had dropped to a manageable amount, which was less than what they knew ZBogey would get.

The Yoshida signing was not on the level of Story and Bregman, and far from the Price level, but I do think they really spent time evaluating him, singling him out as the guy they wanted (rightly or wrongly) and then they went and got "their man."

I don't see Bregman as "their man."

Sure, he checks off two boxes, assuming they play him at 3B, and he'd help the team with a new RHB added to the line-up, but he is not the guy they wanted, all along. Not even close.

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

My point is, they should have targeted someone better than him over the last 9 winters, and then did what it took to get him.

Signing Bregman reeks of just "settling" on the best of the leftovers just because he'd help the team, and not out of some deep-rooted analysis and vetting.

I felt the same way about Story. He was a knee-jerk reaction signing, meant to appease the fans, and they felt his price had dropped to a manageable amount, which was less than what they knew ZBogey would get.

The Yoshida signing was not on the level of Story and Bregman, and far from the Price level, but I do think they really spent time evaluating him, singling him out as the guy they wanted (rightly or wrongly) and then they went and got "their man."

I don't see Bregman as "their man."

Sure, he checks off two boxes, assuming they play him at 3B, and he'd help the team with a new RHB added to the line-up, but he is not the guy they wanted, all along. Not even close.

I’ve theorized Story was signed just to prove we not Tampa North. But the reality is the Sox commited $147 million to him,,,

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

ALLEGEDLY they outbid LA for Scott but Tanner chose LA.

Some might say that's what the front office is leaking to save face.  I dunno, I'm not sure what they're saving from whom at this point. 

The common denominator is the same.  Boston is no longer a destination place to sign for a lot of players.  John Henry's apathy to winning and spending money has done horrible damage to the franchise in recent years. 

There's real value in winning, even if you don't have the best team in baseball.  The thing that sucks, is even if we are lucky enough to build back and lets say we're blessed with a 2028 world series team.  What are the odds John Henry rips apart that team too?

The story that the Sox were the highest bidder for Scott has been refuted, and MLBTR had the Cubs as the runner up.  I don’t think Boston was as competitive as they needed to be there…

56 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve theorized Story was signed just to prove we not Tampa North. But the reality is the Sox commited $147 million to him,,,

Yes, and that was the largest FA signing in 8 winters. It was just short of the total money given to Sale over 5 years, as an extension.

If you look at this 7 year period (JD signed for $110M/5 in '18) and end up saying the two largest FA deals went to Story and Bregman, I think it would be a head-scratcher. One part being, "Is that the highest we paid?" and the other being, "Why those two?"

The next tier is significantly lower:

$90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$68M/4 Nate (more like an extension, to me)

Then another big drop to the next tier:

$39/2 Giolito, $36M/2 Jansen

Here are some hindsight deals signed since 2019:

$118/5 Wheeler '20

$175/7 Semien '22 (pretty close AAV to Story)

$88M/5 Willson Contreras

$79M/4 Schwarber '22 (less than Yoshida)

$72M/4 T Scott '25

$64M/3 Kikuchi '25

$54M/3 Chapman (much cheaper than Bregman will be.)

$53M/4 Imanaga

$45M/3 Seth Lugo

$38M/3 Holmes, $22M/2 Minter, $12M/2 d'Arnaud or C Kelly

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and that was the largest FA signing in 8 winters. It was just short of the total money given to Sale over 5 years, as an extension.

If you look at this 7 year period (JD signed for $110M/5 in '18) and end up saying the two largest FA deals went to Story and Bregman, I think it would be a head-scratcher. One part being, "Is that the highest we paid?" and the other being, "Why those two?"

The next tier is significantly lower:

$90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

$68M/4 Nate (more like an extension, to me)

Then another big drop to the next tier:

$39/2 Giolito, $36M/2 Jansen

Here are some hindsight deals signed since 2019:

$118/5 Wheeler '20

$175/7 Semien '22 (pretty close AAV to Story)

$88M/5 Willson Contreras

$79M/4 Schwarber '22 (less than Yoshida)

$72M/4 T Scott '25

$64M/3 Kikuchi '25

$54M/3 Chapman (much cheaper than Bregman will be.)

$53M/4 Imanaga

$45M/3 Seth Lugo

$38M/3 Holmes, $22M/2 Minter, $12M/2 d'Arnaud or C Kelly

I think you’re losing sight of your point.  The argument that Sox ownership is cheap gets convoluted when you repeatedly bring up cheaper or cost equivalent players they could have signed instead.

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Seems to me it's clearly framed as a two-part point.  1) Why are they spending so little; 2) Why, when they do spend, do they pick guys like Story and Yoshida?

I can wrap my head around the concept of multi-faceted incompetence...

Yeah but spending and missing is at least spending.  There’s a huge difference between making a bad decision and making no decision at all.

And Story did make some sense.  His fWAR was comparable to Bogaerts over the previous seasons.  He was and still is a better defender.  He’s just been hurt a lot…

48 minutes ago, notin said:

I think you’re losing sight of your point.  The argument that Sox ownership is cheap gets convoluted when you repeatedly bring up cheaper or cost equivalent players they could have signed instead.

I also think that we could do and could have done better with the mid range deal of Story ($140M/6) or whatever Bregman gets ($85M/3 to $190M/6ish) I just don't see these two guys as the "ones we should have targeted" to spend the most money on since Price's contract in 2016.

That's not to say the Story signing had no logic to it, or that a Bregman signing wouldn't help us, now. I just think these two would not be who I pick as "the guys."

52 minutes ago, notin said:

I think you’re losing sight of your point.  The argument that Sox ownership is cheap gets convoluted when you repeatedly bring up cheaper or cost equivalent players they could have signed instead.

I mentioned a few in the Story-Bregman range, which are not "cheap" deals. Maybe the Yoshida deal can be included and JD, if you go back to 2018.

Just 4 FA deals over $40M since Price: $140M Story, $110M JD, $90M Yoshida & $68M Nate (more like an extension) It's 3 after JD and two, if you don't count Nate. It's one, if you set the filter over $90M.

This is clear evidence of going cheap, but it also highlights what a bold move it would be to break protocol for a guy like Bregman. Again, I ask "Why Bregman?"

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It seems strange that "age" was a big factor, when we paid two RP'ers pretty good money on 2 year deals, that were both past 34 year old:

$36M/2 Jansen (35-37 years old)

$18M/2 Martin (36-38 years old)

Both did well and both started after the age Scott's deal will end. The risk was just 2 years, each, but this is about being cheap, NOT AGE!

More lies and deception.

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I mentioned a few in the Story-Bregman range, which are not "cheap" deals. Maybe the Yoshida deal can be included and JD, if you go back to 2018.

Just 4 FA deals over $40M since Price: $140M Story, $110M JD, $90M Yoshida & $68M Nate (more like an extension) It's 3 after JD and two, if you don't count Nate. It's one, if you set the filter over $90M.

This is clear evidence of going cheap, but it also highlights what a bold move it would be to break protocol for a guy like Bregman. Again, I ask "Why Bregman?"

But to say you don’t see Bregman as one of “the guys” the Sox finally spend on is kind of silly as a reason not to.  Right now, “the guys” on the Sox includes Story and Yoshida.

I will say this - if Bregman is looking at $160mill over 6 years, I don’t think that as cheap anymore…,

3 hours ago, notin said:

But to say you don’t see Bregman as one of “the guys” the Sox finally spend on is kind of silly as a reason not to.  Right now, “the guys” on the Sox includes Story and Yoshida.

I will say this - if Bregman is looking at $160mill over 6 years, I don’t think that as cheap anymore…,

No, I say he's not the kind of guy I think we should have spent large & long on.

The Sox might very well do it. They did on Story, too.

This is not about hindsight evaluations, but these are the only FA signings, after JD over $39M:

***$140 Story

$68M Nate (nore like an extension)

***$90M Yoshida

If you are going to spend like this, would you pick these 2*** over a 7 year period? Or make Bregman #3?

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

 

So, it's more about the 4 years than the age, as mentioned, before.

Scott will be younger at the end of year 4 than Jansen and Martin were, when they started their duo two year deals.

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think the Sox would have loved to sign Scott to a 2 year deal, just not a 4 year deal. I don't know if they'll sign any reliever under Breslow for 4 years. 

Nomar got traded after he turned down a Red Sox offer of $60 million for four years, circa 2004.

According to Amortization.org (annual inflation of 2.58%) that's a value of about $100 million today. Btw, Garciaparra signed a one-year contract for $8.25M the next season. He was 31.

If you think that's bad, Bregman -- who will be 31 in March -- turned down Houston's offer of $156 million; in '04, that's equivalent to around $260M -- quite an increase from the offer to Nomar, who had very close to the same value as Alex B.

Nomar's bWAR in Boston: 41.2

Bregman's bWAR in Houston: 39.6

Post-script: after leaving Beantown, Garciaparra played 5 more years and earned 3 WAR. Total. Yikes...