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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    It's fairly straightforward and simple. If we make no further moves, and only spend $239M, you will be 100% right. And you can hound me on this the entire season. And if we sign Bregman (or a similar move) and spend to the $263,999,999, then I'll be right.
  2. JoeBrady
    Such a stupid thing to say. I am 100% on-board with JH spending up to the second tier. But I am a wimp simply because I recognize that locking in someone like RA is a smart move? Pure, unadulterated nonsense, and you know it.
  3. JoeBrady
    I wasn't jumping for joy. I accepted the fact that he wanted to leave, as his his right. Don't make stuff up to make a point.
  4. JoeBrady
    The idea being that we can have RA, AND, since we will not being paying him $40M, we can have someone else very good.
  5. JoeBrady
    Duran. Unless we trade him for a #2 SP.
  6. JoeBrady
    But only for now. I assume that Ceddane's and Anthony's trade value's are much higher due to the long-term contracts. If KC reverts to his top-prospect status with a .800 OPS, then his value will have risen. Same with every contract.
  7. JoeBrady
    Let me see if I phrase this thru more minutia. The difference between the cash payroll and CBT payroll, for 2026, is ~ $57M. The chief components of this, according to Cots are: Gray $10M (I assume the 2027 buyout?) Crochet $3.5M Bello $3M Anthony $13.6M Campbell $5M Ceddanne $4M Player Benefits $18M I suggest ignoring Gray's $10M, mostly because I don't know the implications, and it's only one year. And ignoring the player benefits, since I assume every team will have the identical difference. That leaves us with $29M, attributable entirely to the fact that we chose to pay a player next year instead of this year. If JH decided to cut a check for $29M to buy treasuries, would he not be 'spending' that $29M?
  8. JoeBrady
    But had he extended them early, wouldn't he be accused of being stingy, just like he is now with Anthony and Ceddanne?
  9. JoeBrady
    "this year" is the key phrase. If we sacrificed Anthony & Ceddanne 5 years from now, just so we could have a better record for the next 2-3 years, would that be better? IMO, I prefer to lock in the young kids. It almost always makes more sense.
  10. JoeBrady
    Then look at it another way. Every year, we inherit some deferred salary, and every year we defer some salary. If our average spend is $244M, then that is what our spend is. Trying to say JH is stingy because we deferred some salary for CBT purposes, or that he is a big spender because we inherited some deferred salaries, makes no sense.
  11. JoeBrady
    I'm going with the eye test on this one. I think he has a good swing, with good instincts using the whole field. He looks like Betts to me, except he can't field, but he is athletic enough to adapt. His winter results were a mixed bag. Nice K/W, but walks disappear in the pros. And he had -0- HRs. That could simply be our scouts refining his approach. But his AAA results were awful. A 19/6 K/W in September with 1 HR? Good weight is undefined to me. Probably good, but maybe not. So I see two questions. The first devolved from questioning who would replace Yoshi, if Duran got traded. I don't see any chance Campbell would do the job. We'd probably lose at least 40 OPS points. Which leads me to my second question. What is KC's best long-term development? If we replaced Yoshi's projected .767 with some 25 year old AAAA .725, I could be talked into it. But IMVHO, Campbell needs a full year of AAA. He was a top-10 prospect less than a year ago. Trying to promote him to replace Yoshi would be irresponsible.
  12. JoeBrady
    The simplest way is just to see what our payroll is year-to-year. It makes no difference whether we spend $250M on FAs or our own players. That's just a matter of whether or not you are more efficient or less efficient. It's a bit like your l/t Capex expenditures. If your plan is to spend $10B over the next ten years, it doesn't make any difference whether you spend $1B a year, or $3B in the first year and -0- in the following two years.
  13. JoeBrady
    Of course not. But some fans blamed him for a high payroll. One of the reasons for the high payroll is that he made prudent decisions to extend those two guys. That makes it 'look' worse for a couple of years, but then far better thereafter.
  14. JoeBrady
    That's true, but it is top-heavy. Our 1-3 is fairly close to the top. And guys like Sandoval & Oviedo are good candidates for the 4-5 slots. But I would like a little more certainty. I'm not concerned about Yoshi's hitting.
  15. JoeBrady
    That's the issue with the idea of KC as Yoshi's replacement. 'Right now', he is not a professional hitter. I have faith in him, in the long run, but he would be a major downgrade offensively.
  16. JoeBrady
    Same as I said with Bregman. The price tag of $32M was fine. The options we gave him made it weaker. But the draft choices really bite.
  17. JoeBrady
    We're required to know everything.
  18. JoeBrady
    A good question. I'm thinking he probably should, but there might be room for a combination of Harrison, Drohan, and/or Samaniego. I'm guessing that, unless he is lights-out in ST, that Harrison definitely starts off in the BP. Would they need another lefty after him and Chapman?
  19. JoeBrady
    IMVHO, we aren't bidding against anyone. This reminds me of Alonso leaving the NYM, only to find out that no one was overly interested. I'm not sure it is in our best interested to squeeze every dime out of him, but I do believe that we are in the driver's seat. That said, there is always a sweet spot in the timing. You don't want to wake up in the middle of February, only to find out that some team(s) with $30M in the piggy bank, haven't spent a dime of it, and are now desperate to add players at any cost.
  20. JoeBrady
    Sometimes players and agents make mistakes, and not necessarily in their favor. It's the reverse of the sunk cost fallacy. Once you opt out, then the opportunity is ancient history.
  21. JoeBrady
    But that doesn't mean it is arbitrary. It's a real number, and it is the number that EVERYONE refers to. I don't remember MLBR ever referring to cash flow when assessing a team's ability to spend. Their point of reference is ALWAYS how close a team is to the three thresholds and what the CBT penalties. Just as an example, we've probably had 1,000 comments about tax thresholds. Most of us probably have a pretty good idea of what our current CBT payroll is and how much we have to spend at each level. Now, just for fun, show me one comment where someone referred to our 2026 cash flow payroll. When that turns up -0-, add in all the MLBR RS comments. When that turns up with -0-, go to MLBR for every team, and find one comment using cash flow payroll instead of CBT. Cash flow payroll doesn't exist for discussion purposes. It's a mirage.
  22. JoeBrady
    #56 among ALL hitters in wRC+ from 2023-24, at a minimum of 1000 PAs. Just for fun, if we trade Duran for pitching, and you cut Yoshida, who would you replace him with?
  23. JoeBrady
    Moot point since he does not have a 100 wRC+ ceiling.
  24. JoeBrady
    I would bet on the RS as well. He hasn't gotten a huge offer, or else he'd already be signed. And since we haven't signed anyone that would be a Bregman-equivalent, I assume he is still out #1 target. And I'd say the 5/125 is ballpark accurate. Some might be deferred to squeeze under the cap, but I'd guess you are within a few percentage points either way.
  25. JoeBrady
    It's not arbitrary; it's a rule. If you go past $244M, you pay a tax and a penalty. But I will give you a more concrete reason not to use cash. How do you want to account for the $50M we still owe Sale? How about the $14M we owe Bregman? Or numerous other deferred liabilities? Or if Sale and Bregman want to settle their receivables today, because we're going to buy the Angels. So they settle for $50M. Does that mean JH is now one of the most free-spending owners in BB because his cash outlay is $300M? The CBT is the measure.
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