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JoeBrady

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Everything posted by JoeBrady

  1. JoeBrady
    IMO, he won't be any better than 3-4 guys we have at that level. And since Duran can likely land us someone like Lodolo, I would much prefer Lodolo.
  2. JoeBrady
    IMHO, he is on par with Tolle.
  3. JoeBrady
    Tong + Vientos for Duran frees up $8M in spending.
  4. JoeBrady
    That's all. I'm not saying it can't happen that he retains his skills for 4-5 years, but it has to be a consideration. And, FWIW, I have no objection to trading for the guy-just not giving up the farm for him. Duran for Marte is ballpark fair. I just wouldn't be adding much by the way of prospects.
  5. JoeBrady
    I don't get the attraction of Donovan. He's a platoon player for the most part. Over the past two years, he has a 116 OPS+ while Romy has a 118+.
  6. JoeBrady
    And if they were RS players, everyone would've been screaming for them to be traded, before they ever hit the pros. Something, something prospects=suspects, something, something.
  7. JoeBrady
    Not close. And I seriously doubt that Mil is looking for another outfielder.
  8. JoeBrady
    Probably a one-year platoon with Casas, and a backup at 3rd.
  9. JoeBrady
    From 2015-2025, ten full years, only 4 players have averaged 2.5 fWAR/year.
  10. JoeBrady
    Taking everyone from 2010-2011, with a fWAR of 3.0 or better, they suffered on average, a decline of 0.9 per year. There is a lot of variance in here. Pujols -3.3 Holliday -2.1 Bautista +0.6 Texeira -2.4 Uggla -2.7 Granderson -0.5 Beltre +2.2 Zobrist +1.2
  11. JoeBrady
    I would be, but it also depends on the length of the deal. No one worried about Pujols, and he had only one good year with the Angels. No one worried about Trout. No one worries about anyone 31-32, until they stop. And all of them stop.
  12. JoeBrady
    That's not the way FG calculates a player's decline. They take a look at every player that has ever played, and they extrapolate the numbers. It's entirely possible that any given player will beat the odds. But I'd make a substantial wager that the total fWAR of all of 2025 32 y.o. players will be lower than they will be in 2026. Aging is undefeated.
  13. JoeBrady
    You kind of have to say which side you like. For a team like the Mets, who have some young pitching and need a CF, it makes sense. For a team like the RS, who have 4 legit OFs, trading one of them makes sense.
  14. JoeBrady
    Soler has only 1 error in the past four years, has a higher fielding % than Duran, and I might be a better fielder.
  15. JoeBrady
    I think Moon is under-estimating the age issue. From 2021-2025 (5 years), for ages 32-36 (5 years), FG shows only 6 players with a WAR > 10.0.
  16. JoeBrady
    If I felt compelled to add a 2B, I'd simply sign Polanco and trade Duran for an SP.
  17. JoeBrady
    That's a bug, not a feature. It's actually 5 years plus a one-year player. I'd much rather pay Duran thru age 31 and be done with him, than be paying Marte $22M at ages 35 & 36.
  18. JoeBrady
    I assume what you're saying is that Ceddanne improved from 2.8 bWAR to 4.7 while Marte declined from 6.8 to 4.4. And if Marte continues his decline based on FG, then he will accumulate 20.1 fWAR (for $102M). If Ceddanne simply continues his 3.8, he will accumulate 22.8 (for $43M). Keep in mind, if we use bWAR, it becomes even more favorable to Ceddanne.
  19. JoeBrady
    I would do that as well. My preference would be for Burns or Chandler, but there is a pretty good chance they won't be available. The Mets might be uncomfortable trying to squeeze Tong, Sproat and McLean into the rotation, so I'm guessing that one of them will be available. Vientos took a step backwards last year, so he might be available. And as a righty 1B/3B, he could back up both Mayer and Casas.
  20. JoeBrady
    I wouldn't trade Ceddanne straight up for Marte. Ceddanne had a better bWAR, is 7(!) years younger, and a better contract.
  21. JoeBrady
    If the FO thinks he won't return until September, then we find a replacement. But I haven't seen anything in that regard yet.
  22. JoeBrady
    Spot-on correct. Keeping or trading good pitching prospects because you are hoping they become Lester, or fear they will become Gabbard, is silly, imo. No one knows. The best approach is to put a future value on them, and trade them on that basis. If PT thinks Early is a #2, and we think his ceiling is a #3, then we trade him. If we think Tolle will be a #2, and Cincy pegs as a #3/4, then we don't trade him.
  23. JoeBrady
    Not what Lester was as a prospect, or not what Lester became as a pro? Early has clearly out-performed Lester as a 1st year pro.
  24. JoeBrady
    I've heard you can do better as injuries progress because what's left isn't enough to cause you pain. In Lackey's 2011 year with the RS, he had some good stretches. 15 ERs in his first two starts, 3 ERS in his next three starts. 17 ERs in his next two starts.
  25. JoeBrady
    He certainly isn't as good as Anthony. But my +/- theory says that we got a .777 out of 3B last year. B-R projects a .729 from Mayer. So, theoretically, we lose 48 points. FG projects a .723, so that would be a loss of 54 points. Obviously, any projection could be higher or lower, but when averaging the +/- across 9 positions, we won't be off by a material amount.
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