drewski6

You are probably right, Im mostly think of a couple of personal friends who are extremely optimistic year after year about all their favorite teams. Their exuberance over the last few deadlines was....homerish (I know, I know)

For sure. You come away with no top tier free agents and it will be more of the same.

Not everyone will see through it. My phone will blow up with hip hip hoorays. Lot of easy to please fans , at least here in Providence

Scared money

Sounds like 2 teams that need to improve in order to be a playoff contender.

When you offer 1 year deals, you get guys who are willing to accept them and they are usually mid tier (at best) with significant question marks. If we are going with a smaller financial commitment towards the pen to save $$ for positional players and rotation fine. If we end up with a series of mediocre players, I can just hear my personal friends now "They did sign money, lets goooo" All of my friends were excited about James Paxton and I was like give me an f'ing break. If we sign Eovaldi and nobody else, the casuals will think we're back (we wont be)

1 yr contracts for mid tier free agents on inflated AAVs is the fear for sure.

What about Hendricks, Slaten, Whitlock?

Fair enough

How de we feel about trading for Luis Ortiz

He straight up misses bats, man

Id rather do Yoshida, Casas and Abreu for Vladdy.

I dont think Yoshi is going anywhere. But I think with Soto and one of Burnes, Crochet, Fried....Play freaking ball! Im not sure if thats top 4 or top 6 or top 8 .... But its certainly a much improved team when you consider that likely one of Story,Campbell,Anthony is going to stay healthy and be a significant addition. And you are still adding Gio an Im sure they wont just stop and Soto and 1 SP either.

I dont think they are there yet, taking the best offer, the one they want to sign and negotiating against it. Thats like a final step. Its a good sign, however, if Boras is like "we really like your offer but want you to guarantee years 12,13" I think right now they are fielding offers and trying to get teams to continue competing against each other. Could be wrong. Hangup implies, however, that they are close to an agreement and just need to work out some final hurdles. I dont think thats the case. Could be wrong.

This is baseball, did anyone expect the WS to be Rangers vs Dbacks 2 years ago?

IMO, we'd absolutely have a chance at a playoff spot with the aforementioned player combos. Of course, things would need to break in the right direction (like usual), e.g. Story staying healthy, one or more prospect playing well, Houck showing last year was no fluke... You add Soto, Story, and one or 2 pitchers (Fried and Crochet for example) along with some pen help, and it would be hard not to be excited for next year. Certainly not a team that should be throwing in the towel before the season opens

Well it wont be a 1yr deal for Soto, but sure. And I can see them improving the rotation via trade if they pay big for Soto and dont want a second huge cash outlay in the same offseason. Also, pitching is less projectable. Burnes is more likely to go to crap or get hurt than an equivalent bat. Likewise, one of our 15 #3/4 starters is more likely to figure it out than an equivalent (average) starting hitter.

Why even bother with Castillo (drewski adds: right now)? I dont think it makes sense for Sea nor Boston to engage in these trades right now. While Harmony does seem to underrate the trade values of Bos players/prospects, I do think he is correct that Castillo's value is likely to rise once the remaining top 2 FA pitchers come off the board. Y'all know how this works. The Orioles, Yankees, Giants, Blue Jays, Mets, and Im sure a couple dark horse teams are in on the remaining 2 starters. Those that miss out will look to the next tier down, but also the trade market. At this point, when "signing an equiv starter for just cash" is no longer an option, the trade values of Crochet and Castillo will rise (maybe not as much for Castillo if you lump him in with Eovaldi and not Fried/Burnes), but yes it should still go up somewhat. Its not crazy to suggest that due to supply/demand, teams will have to "overpay" per BTV for a trade for a starter. If the Orioles get Burnes and the Yankees get Fried and the mets trade for crochet, you better believe the sox will be looking to make an overpay on the trade front. I dont know about Mayer for Castillo level overpay, but certainly some kind of overpay. SO it makes sense for teams looking to deal a starter to wait (for me). Regarding the Sox, also wait. Lets see if we get Soto. If not, they will make a strong push for Fried and/or Burnes and may land one. So lets see where the dust settles with the free agents before engaging Seattle in a trade.

They care about their friends more than they care about your prospects. Its a brotherhood and prospects arent in until they are.

Id go positive, personally, if the bidding on Fried and Burnes goes nutty.

You can get around BTV pay-wall by searching for the player , and just grabbing his TV from a proposed trade. Hes at -6. Regressing? Maybe. But 2 years ago he was one of the very best pitchers in baseball. And that contract isnt bad and only has 3 years left. Id be interested at a price of -6 trade value units. And not to dump Yoshida, because I want Castillo because I think hes good.

Id do Wilyer, Bleis, Arias.

I like Cespedes and Perales both quite a bit. Id do Bleis, Arias, Meidroth all day. But I think Wilyer goes in the deal.

My thinking is that by Sotos age 35 season +, inflation will make whatever AAV he has for the last few years not look like an albatross even if some regression.

In the context of giving Soto 12-14 years, do you agree (at least in small part) that whatever we give Soto (lets say 50M per) will not be the top of the market in year 10? If Soto gets 50m in 2024, I predict that by 2030 - there will be 5-10 position players making 55M+ and by 2034 (deep into the deal) 50m per will be well above avg for a starting position player but no longer considered superstar money. I dont think inflation stops inflating next 10 years.