drewski6

Yall might want to check MLB trade rumors, Bout to land Crochet for a prospect package headlined by Teel

I agree. My point is merely that Castillo's BTV stands out to me as low, as Iast I checked it was negative and that caught my eye. So I used Hamilton as an example to illustrate my point, by pointing to a) he has +13 BTV (modestly higher than Castillo) and b) the fact that I think the Sox would do that swap (not to imply Seattle would). Pretty much: heres a player who has +13 who I think the Sox and Sox fans would be happy to swap for Castillo, showing that I think Castillos BTV should be up around 13 and if he can be had for an outgoing package that nets to less than 15, hes a good target (for any club). I like Castillo, and people are worried about regression, but apples-to-apples youd also have to be worried about Burnes regression if you were to go that route as well. Whatever contract Burnes lands, Im quite confident, that the next day his BTV will be negative. Because you dont beat the entire open market for a marquee FA and then have an immediate surplus asset. The market is more efficient than that and will force you to overpay to get the last remaining FA ace. I would still offer Burnes 260 / 8, but if you cant land him, Castillo makes sense to me as a target (and I think Sox would have competition trying to land him from other clubs, and would have to submit an offer that tops whatever Castillos BTV is right now).

I didnt meant to imply that DHAM for Castillo was the trade, just saying I would consider Castillo a tradeable contract with value, not a ton of value due to the high AAV on an aging pitcher. I just picked DHAM because he was around +11. But Harmony rejected the (non proposed) deal because apparently he thinks hes the GM and in his eyes every Mariner is apparently better than every Red Sox player, despite the fact that the (again non-proposed) deal would be a swoon for Ms per BTV. And we got off track.

Nope, the point was: that Castillos value per BTV appears to be low, and Hamilton was just an example of a guy with 10+ BTV trade units who most of us would move for Castillo to illustrate that I dont agree that Castillo's contract is currently underwater.

Lets say the Yankees get Burnes, the Blue Jays get Fried and the Mets trade for Crochet. Sasaki to the dodgers and Seattle offers you Castillo for Hamilton (+13). You laughing them off the phone? Cuz that doesnt sound terrible to me.

Id give him +11, personally.

I honestly think if he can stay healthy, hes very far from a problem. Maybe when you consider his contract, but thats a sunk cost.

Im certainly less confident than I was, but we kind of expected this. Other teams that missed out on Soto getting into the bidding war (whether that be trade assets or free agency dollars) on our targets. Blue Jays and Dodgers negotiating with TH. Yankees getting involved in the Crochet trade talks (Mets too, even though they didnt miss out on Soto). SF, Bal, Yankees getting involved in FA bidding wars for Burnes, Fried.... Its not easy to sign (or trade for) anyone right now who would be a clear upgrade. A lot of teams hungry to improve. And we gotta be hungry to improve. Because the lack of spending recently , to me, is not only driven by stinginess but also complacency.

The context was MVP and I discussing if acquiring Teoscar necessitates a need to trade Abreu. I initially noted that it would and MVP was like "not so sure" Anthony is still very young, and if we dont trade WIlyer , RA becomes quality depth (granted we would still have Campbell as an OF option and Cedanne) should we sign Teoscar and flip Abreu. But after reflecting, I would agree with MVP that its not a 100% certainty that we would move Wilyer should we sign TH. But I still think its more likely than not.

I guess you could move Duran to CF, put Teoscar in LF and keep Abreu in right. Turns Cedanne into supersub and Roman into depth

If you get TH, you have to trade Abreu for something.

Theyll make a big trade and a big(ish) signing. I say "big(ish)" because Im not super confident that they get one of Fried or Burnes. Wouldnt surprise me if they got Fried, but Im not super confident. But they will make a trade , theyve got to.

I dont mean to come in this hot, but I think trading Duran is nonsense. And I was all for trading him prior to last year, especially Notins proposed trade for my fellow RI'er Micheal King. But at this point, no way.

Agree. I think our problem has mostly been our decision making vs disadvantages with the financial structure.

Because fans dont get a seat at the table for MLBPA negotiations. If the small market teams are happy to collect a check from the big spenders, and the big spenders are happy to write that check, and the players are happy - then its working for all parties negotiating, even if its frustrating for us. But thats kind of on our owners

And one injury plagued season at that

We dont know yet the degree of the Soto overpay. If the market for positional / hitting stars doesnt move and just pretends this deal never happened, sure Mets probs wind up regretting it. But if it does move the market and we start seeing 40m+ as a floor for positional/hitting all stars, this deal wont look as bad for the Mets.

Likely, no. Thats what the RS want, to have a meeting and be told a number that will get it done then and there. Boras will likely have the meeting, but remain non-committal and not sign then and there. But he may leave with a higher offer, and one he can shop around with, which is why he would take the meeting. Also, if its down to 3 teams and we are in it, its his job to continue conversations with all remaining bidders.

Agreed. I think, confidently, he will consider the difference between a 550m$ contract and a 650m$ one. And it will be a huge factor.

The mets rumored "exceed any deal by 50m" may be a scare tactic or any other kind of tactic. They also may not get the chance. All the time, in deals, someone says "get back to me before you finalize" and the other party doesnt. When we sold our house, we had a few people like this. "I want to be the last person you call before you accept an offer" and we rolled our eyes and considered them non-serious.

They will certainly ask "what will it take to get this done", they may not get an answer from Sotos camp, who could respond "make your best and final offer" (keeping teams in the dark is a well established agent play). They may also say a number that we are or are not willing to meet. Most likely, Sotos camp will give a noncomittal answer (we think you have a great shot at 675, but we are not willing to sign today, will you offer 675?)

Because they've already gone too far to have it all be just for show. Not sure they'll get him, but they are certainly trying.

HAHA, meant STL. Not all rumors are the same (as Im sure you know). If it was an SI writer or a fan article thats different than a rumor suggesting actual talks.

You wouldnt make a 675m offer unless you were okay with it being accepted (even if you knew it still didnt make you the favorites).

The only part about this I find "pie in the sky" is Colorado trade even with Arenado coming back to offset the dollars.