drewski6

This is kind of what Im talking about. I think in all sports, you can be out in front of an inefficient market. It usually dries up. For example, in hockey nobody use to ever want any players under 6'1, and talented players could be had for cheap. But the league corrected. Obvs you still get points for size in NHL, but its not like you can just go get very good players under 6' for a song anymore. In baseball, I think the market is factoring in previous manager decisions, too much. It should count for something, because the fact that Alonso's previous manager played him at 1b gives him a lot of 1b experience. Thats obvs worth more than 0, but its not worth a ton. Alonso is a cusp defensive player, meaning on the cusp of being so bad, he can only DH. Ditto with Schwarber, ditto with Rooker, ditto with Alvarez, ditto with Devers, ditto with Casas, ditto with Ortiz. But there really isnt a huge dropoff going from Alonso to Schwarber or even say David Ortiz at 1b (lets say a 32 yr david ortiz with a time machine). But guys like Ortiz, schwarber , I feel get undervalued on the market because their previous manager had them DH, and so they are seen as a DH and this decreases their market value (in my opinion too much) because they get labeled a DH but really they are not terribly worse defensively than say Alonso. And I hunt market inefficies. We saw it with JD Martinez, he was still capable of hitting .300 and 20+ HRs but nobody wanted him because he was labeled a DH. ANd any DH who hits 2-4 in your lineup is not "just a DH", they are a huge part of your offense. So, I understand we already have a few cusp defensive players, and want to use our DH for overflow. BUt the thinking is too old school for me. IN 20206, pitchers are winning , so you need dudes who can capitalize on mistakes. You really need dudes who can put it over the wall if they are looking fastball and get one. Even a low one. Im sure more of you are watching these playoffs. Pitchers arent even throwing low fastballs to certain hitters because HRs will change the game. We need some of that and we need some of it badly. IF the dudes who give you this are affordable when they are DH, we should prob go that route. Heck Id get multiple and live with one in the field. Like trade for Brent Rooker and sign Schwarber and figure it out.

I dont hate the logic and think there is a universe in which, I agree. I would certainly care more about ideal defensive alignment if we werent starting from such a hole from a power perspective. If we already had one true middle of the order masher. But considering we are talking about our #2/3 , unquestioned best hitter on the team, and we dont really have a great offense around the guy we are getting (alonso vs schwarber) , I think that if you can save some dough with shcwarber thats my pref because hes giving you 20-25% more with the bat which is a lot. An A+ hitting DH is just way more valuable than a B+ hitting player who plays defense unless the latter is a plus defensive SS or CF. And I know Im in the minority on this, but I strongly believe it. Im not even really against getting schwarber and Hoskins.

I wont root for cheapskate billionaires. Go Dodgers.

My point is that I think the bidding for Alonso will get unfomfotable, and Im hoping that the fact that Schwarber is seen as a DH and not a 1b will cap his next contract significantly below what Alonso will make, and I think it could make sense to switch to Schwarber and either live with him at 1b or put him at DH cuz the difference between the contracts will allow you to go get somebody else too, and I dont put a ton of value in the fact that alonso plays 1b poorly and schwarber plays 1b very poorly. To me the difference in d isnt worth the 150m+ delta between the two contracts. I think Schwarber gets like 100m and alonso gets like 250m. Could be wrong but contracts generally go up not down.

These are better comps than Vlad tho? Vlad and Alonso have 5 all-stars each and nearly identical career OPS. And I know vlad is younger, but nobody is expecting alonso to sign for 14 yrs. An age adjusted equiv of the vlad contract is like 9 yrs/320M. And I dont think hes getting that, but I think hes getting north of 7/210M. I think hell have multiple offers for 5yrs @ 210 and if you want him, youll have to add the six year maybe coming down from 42 to an even 40 for the extra year. 240/6. Its not that diff than breg getting 120m guaranteed with an opt-out and a player option included. I think you may be undervaluing the bold. Breg did a lot better than 40m aav when you include the bold.

6-7 at 30m for a top hitter on the market feels like a 2022 contract. A lot has changed since 2022.

Thats an adjusted AAV for Breg. He got 40m with an opt out after year 1 (adds significant value to the player side) and a player option after year 2 (adds significant value to the player side). Plus that contract was late in free agency, when most teams were settled and it was kind of a 2-3 team race.

Because thats how markets work. The top sets the market, then it trickles down. Bregman got 40m/year, which feels like a sharp increase. I dont think that happens without soto/vladdy contracts. ALso because I feel like Alonso and Tucker are the premiere bats so Im comparing them to recent premiere bats. Its hard to think of a better comp than vlad. Power-hitting first baseman. Granted Alonso is 4 years older. Granted Toronto has to overpay because its an inconvenience living in canada and high tax rate (no offense to any Canadians here). So Im adjusting down from vlad. But Vlad got a contract that took him to (maybe through) age 40. Bregman who got hurt, is a couple years removed from a full dominant season and is more likely than not to opt out. From a 40m AAV, with a player option for 40m following. Thats equiv to 45m at least for 1 (the option is valuable) and hes about to leave it in the dust. And he doesnt look particularly healthy to me. My best guess: Tucker gets close to 400m, Alonso gets close to 300m, Bregman gets 160m, we sit here laughing at all these "overpaying" GMs. But also the elephant in the room will be "are we locked out from elite free-agents?" (Nervous look around the room)

So you think hes 40% the player that vlad is, or 30% the player soto is, or you think the market is going to snap back as if those contracts didnt happen? Also, inflation 3% higher than it was last year. I think Tucker and Alonso both easy clear 300m. I think if you want a very good hitter for 200m, you need to look at some DHs. Which is my original point. The market is discounting DHs too much.

ALso, alonso wasnt coming off his best year, he is now.

but i think that ship has sailed, and i dont think you are getting alonso for a penny under 300m.

Yeah, sign alonso for 100m/3 , and we prob beat yanks in game 2. So we'd still be playing and have alonso for 2 more years at a reasonable salary. I dont disagree.

I think Alonso is the best bat on the market, when it was vlad he got 500m, when it was soto it was 700m. I dont think Alonso is going to come cheap. If I have a choice between paying alonso 600m or an equivalent bat who DHs 200m (over same years, lets assume same age), Im taking the DH and spending the 400m saved on other holes, especially because its first base and Alonso isnt a plus defensively. Im not paying 400m exra because mets manager played alonso in field when he really is prob best served at dh even last year.

Im confused why they paid soto so much but are watching every penny w alonso.

I dont want either Soto or Casas going up there looking to draw walks. Things change, and we are living in an era where due to the pitching dominance, you want instant runs and not a "keep the line moving" philosophy. I dont pay Soto 70m to work counts. Anybody can go up there and not swing until 2 strikes. He should be hunting fastballs early in the count. If hes not , hes grossly overpaid. If you got out on the first pitch, you use to get an earful. No matter what, you do NOT do that. Now , its the opposite. You wanna get an earful? Let a hittable pitch go by. Taking a meatball is much worse than flailing at a well thrown sweeper.

Agreed , dont overpay for OBP

So Vlad gets 500m and Alonso gets 30m?

was alonso a UFA when he got 30m? If its an extension when the team had control thats a massive variable thats not apples to apples

The fact that Ortiz DH'd was a big part of his value. Because he was half-as-expensive as a dude who would have the same bat but play a lousy 1b. If you are an elite ss or an elite cf thats one thing. Other than that, its easy to overpay for defense. You should go D at Cf, ss, C and then if you need to fill a hole on the cheap. Because we need to save money at lf, for example, and we have nobody to put there, but we have no budget so might as well get a cheap guy who can defend. But you dont pay big dollars for lf d or 1b d

The market is wrong on DH. Take advantage. According to the market , soto is worth 70m becasue he plays a bad OF. And honestly, whether he plays a bad OF vs just plays DH has more to do with a manager decision. Now if there was a great hitter who just had no position, he would be like 1/3 the price tag. Thats silly. 50m out of Sotos 70m is NOT from the fact that the manager plays him in the OF even though he stinks at it.

An elite hitter who plays a position will cost you 70m/yr An elite hitter who is a DH will cost you 25m/yr Save the 45m and put anybody at 1b.

Problem is finite resources and more holes than you would expect for a playoff team

My only difference is I would be fine if the third get was a DH.

No

You get a gift from dad and you break it, you gotta earn the next one. Mayer and campbell. They both start next year in aaa and get a chance either by outplaying someone making mlb money or via injury you start with your depth penciled in to starter roles and what are you gonna do when you have injuries next year and you will the options, being able to park dudes in the minors, is valuable. Its not only pitching where its useful. Position players get hurt too.