drewski6

And I also think that if they get Soto, they'll still try to get one of the top 3 FA starters. But try being the operative word. But I mean literally try and not pretend to try for PR

I believe they'll make a strong offer, but it wont be a blank check, and it may be a blank check from the Mets. Should that be the case, first of all, bummer. Second of all, at least its then easier to justify getting one (or maybe 2) of the top 3 FA starters. Personally, I think Id rather get 1 of Burnes, Fried, Snell and get another starter via trade (than 2 of the aforementioned 3). I do think that if they miss on Soto, they will get a potent bat somewhere (whether it be Hernandez, Adames, Bregman, Guerrero, Alonso)....Someone (along with a top 3 starter). Or at least make "strong" offers. And I dont mean "make an offer to say you did" (like our half-hearted attempt to get Teoscar last year). I mean a real effort, but you dont know where the chips will fall. Thats obvs worst case (and not in small part because it would be a continuation of a trend) - falling just short with competitive offers but falling short and falling back to the mid-tiers on inflated AAVs because you fell short on the true difference makers.

Agreed, it feels to me with Story, Campbell, Cedanne covering some MI, Hamilton, Sogard.....Grissom has a bit of a mountain (lets call it a large hill) to climb to get regular PT

And you are creating some 40 man openings with the Crochet trade.

I do worry a bit about 40 man roster space, but I assume there are guys that can get DFA'd

I like it. I would just add that I doubt that Grissom would win the job with options such as moving Rafaela to infield (to get ANthony in there) or a stratight swap of Grissom for Kristian Campbell. Obviously, we dont need to commit to Grissom as an everyday player if a prospect wins a major league job and I suspect one will at some point. There will, of course, also be injury attrition. But if you consider that you dont have Roman Anthony or Campbell on this 26 man, they are serving as depth and thats good depth.

I wouldnt be shocked at all if Arrenado resurges. Not saying Id expect it or reflect it and what Im willing to give up , but 5 years ago this guy had hall-of-fame caliber years. He was a true stud. Not implying that Im regardless of cost.

Flipped for Crochet?

Hes a smiling lefty with a larger than life bat, Ortiz is the comp.

Agreed with all. Just to add : another possibility is that both Soto and Anthony have great careers for the sox. You want Soto regardless of whether Anthony becomes a superstar.

More than anything , Im sick of the 1-2 deals for mediocre players with inflated AAVs. Player x is 32 years old, and would cost you 24m. Hes a #2 starter at prestent. BUt you avoid cuz hes getting 4 year deals and you want to keep him to 3 years Player y is 32 years old and is a #3/4 starter. So you go here because hes willing to accept a 1 yr deal at 17M. Thers not as much upside with player y, even if he works out, hes gone after this year. And you may worry that player x wont be a #2 starter on the back 2 years of a hypothetical 4 year deal, but theres a good chance that by then 24m wont even be the going rate for a #2 starter anymore. Inflation, inflation , inflation. I understand the reasons why we would go short in recent past. Try to give the prospects time while you keep the team at least watchable. But now that we are strategizing about turning a corner, its time to prioritize quality over fear of getting stuck with an underwater contract.

I prefer trades to free agents, but I dont share your avoidance of free agents. Id rather have a guy who makes 20m, and provides the WAR of a 10m guy then not have him and be 20m under budget. And I also think you can get yourself into trouble with the band-aids and stop caps and short term commitments to guys who will take them. I think thats part of the problem. A revolving door of bad pitchers on 1-2 year deals and you are not even saving that much $$ cuz the AAVs still add up. Let the prospects serve as depth and work their way in. Theres nothing to be gained by avoiding free agents from a wins perspective. And I dont mean just empty the budget with disregard. Of course, only go after players you like. But if you always avoid free agents, what exactly the point of keeping budget room. You just wont use it. Of course, you could use it resigning guys, but thats kind of prioritizing guys just because they happen to have already been here. Meritocracy. If there are better first baseman than Casas dont use your money on casas just because it would be an extension and not a free agent. You also want to look at the last time the market was reset. If guys are going for the same rate that they were 5 years ago, you want to pounce and sign guys (with term on those contracts). Cuz inflation is real and if guys are signing for the same rate they were 5 years ago, thats not gonna last long. Eventually, the salaries will catch up and reflect inflation.

Thats fair regarding the offense finding a way to replace the departures year after year. But I dont want to be counting on Story to stay healthy or Casas to be consistent. If you take projected lineup with no position player additions, its not like its great. It may be okay, but whats the goal here? Build the best team possible. Any pitcher you sign has a 35% chance of getting hurt or just falling off a cliff. Bats are more reliable. ANd the team is still too lefty heavy. Id be okay with only one impact bat, and I would very much like it to be Soto. But if Soto doesnt come, I think they should get Teoscar or Bregman or some other impact righty bat.

Absolutely, it seems many here are Soto or just get pitchers, and I just dont think its going to work out that way (and I dont think it should either). If they miss on Soto, theyll go hard after Teoscar, and if they miss on him, they'll prob engage Oneill. I strongly feel a righty will be added. They might also add a righty infielder, but Im less sure. And we prob also sign a catcher. They will of course bring in pitchers as well, either via trade or free agency. But Im not as bullish on the offense and defense as some are here. I also believe that good bats are more projectable and less variable than pitchers. Pitchers get hurt more, and go to crap more. Crap pitchers can also just figure it out and shed the "crap" label. I expect them to add 1-2 starters , 1-2 relievers, and 2-3 position players.

Sure , our OPS was 7th last year - but you are losing your #2 OPS player (Oneill) who had 400+ at bats, no small number. Wong was .781 but we are looking to cut into his atbats for defensive shortcomings, Abreu was up there among our best, but hes likely to be traded. Without these three, the bats could leave us wanting.

Regarding the original article - why trade when you can sign guys. Well, when you sign guys, guys will get blocked. So for example, I lean no on trading an infielder - but if we sign Bregman or Adames thats going to have a downstream effect. The need to open up a 40 man spot, prospects getting blocked, guys losing their role to a signing. But I, unlike many here, do not seem are problems are pitching exclusively and we have all these wonderful position players. I think we could use a lot of free agents on the position side, a righty outfielder, potentially a middle infielder, a catcher. And I dont think our projected batting order for next year is great and its far too left handed and our D stinks.

Yeah but refusing to make longer term non-discounted commitments has been part of the problem. With story they were in on despite a longer term contract because they believed he was undervalued and they smelled discount. Then you have these 1-2 year contracts for pitchers, and they are ignoring the top of the market because those guys generally (last year was weird) wont accept 1-2 years. So when you offer short term contracts you get guys who will accept them. And when you go for these 1-2 year contracts , back to back , you dont save much because the AAVs are not that far off from than the top tier guys (who just get more years). Dont bet against inflation. Need I remind you all that we laughed at Adrian Beltres Rangers contract as an overpay , then 1.5 years later everyone is trying to trade for it. Longer term contracts come with inflation protection. Look how Pivetta just turned down 21M. If you offered a 6 year deal to a #3 starter at 17M 4 years ago, everyone would have laughed at you. But if that guy is still a #3 starter today, that deal has trade value. I understand not wanting to be stuck with an underwater commitment, but scared money dont make money. Gotta trust the scouts, GMs and pull the trigger even if theres risk.

After the meeting, I got caught up in the hype. Started feeling like we were a threat to land him, but after a few days (and a few meetings with rivals), Im less confident.

Dont think we'd have to part w Anthony, willing to part with Mayer. TY for engagement

Some combo of Abreu, DHam, minor leaguers traded for Crochet (not extended immediately) and Devin Williams. Along with Williams, Martin resigned to shore up pen (also added Wilson). Surprise signing of Bregman (lefty/righty balance), and Soto (too good to pass). Estimated minor leagues and player benefits = 20M, so I think this is right at (but just below) lux tax), but I think they are willing to go over it this year. Feels different. Durran Soto Bregman Devers Story Casas Campbell Yoshi/Ref (DH) Catcher C: Kyle Teel ($0.80M) 1B: Tristan Casas ($0.80M) 2B: Alex Bregman ($26M) 3B: Rafael Devers ($27.07M) SS: Trevor Story ($22.50M) LF: Juan Soto ($48M) CF: Jarren Duran ($4.9M) RF: Kristian Campbell ($0.8M) DH: Masataka Yoshida ($18.60M) 4th OF: Rob Refsnyder ($2.25M) Utility: Vaughn Grissom ($0.80M) Utility: Ceddanne Rafaela ($1.25M) Backup C: Connor Wong ($0.80M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Garrett Crochet ($3M) SP2: Tanner Houck ($4.5M) SP3: Brayan Bello ($2.66M) SP4: Kutter Crawford ($3.5M) SP5: Lucas Giolito ($19.00M) RP: Liam Hendricks ($6.00M) RP: Zack Kelly ($0.80M) RP: Josh Winckowski ($0.80M) RP: Chris Martin ($2M) RP: Justin Wilson ($2.25M) RP: Devin Williams ($10.5M) RP: Justin Slaten ($0.80M) RP: Brennan Bernardino ($0.80M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 5.29% over budget

Good addition because I was thinking the only argument that could give me pause is he bats lefty

Last year Soto's OPS+ was 178. Highest on the team was Devers in the 130's, meaning Soto was as much of a better hitter than our best hitter as our best hitter was to a league average hitter. Ortiz never had an OPS+ of 178. And last year wasnt even Soto's best year at the plate, as he has a year where his ops+ was 217. Only player to ever have a higher single season OPS was Ted Williams. Soto is entering his prime at 26. Would you not sign Ortiz or Williams because you have "depth" at their position. Sox had plenty of depth at 1B/DH when they signed Ortiz (Giambi, Millar). Would you roll back the Ortiz signing? No offense intended but not going after truly elite hitters because you have solid players is how you stay "mid"