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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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I agree he needs one position, but I'd argue that athleticism may be all he has right now. Remember how he wowed the coaching staff with a running, diving catch in LF that popped out of his glove when he hit the ground? Management has moved him all over the diamond, trying to contrive versatility -- maybe make him another Marwin Gonzalez -- but KC's just not smooth enough anywhere. I saw him in CF in Worcester fall down trying to catch a pop-up. Kristian Campbell is a professional athlete. Nick Sogard is a pro ballplayer.
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And it looks like that may be anywhere in the infield. What position will Campbell play in the majors at a major league level? Seriously, I'm not worried about KC becoming a good MLB hitter, as much as I just can't see anywhere on the field where he'll fit in as a core member of sustained contenders in Boston. Right now, it may be more likely he'll be traded and wind up as the steady leftfielder for some mid-market city. Does anyone think the Sox are going to instead trade Duran and Abreu and Garcia to open up a starting spot for Kristian Campbell?
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Hitting a baseball in the majors is harder than ever. Batters in the first half of last century didn't have to face integrated pitching staffs or fresh arms throwing in the 90s coming out of the bullpen at night half the time. There were no such things as analytics departments breaking down video or check-the-check. Anthony looks great, a guy who can work a pitcher and slug a pitcher. He also struck out about 6 times every 20 at bats. As for another tall lefty swinger, the MLB's all-time On Base leader -- Ted Williams (career .482) -- in 19 years, for every 20 ABs, he struck out... once. For a more recent comparison, here are the Red Sox' two best homegrown players this century, who both debuted at age 21: Mookie Betts...........291 BA in 52 G, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .368/.444/.812, 14.6 K-rate, 2.3 WAR Roman Anthony: .292 BA in 71 G, 8 HR, 32 RBI, .396/.463/.859, 27.7 K-rate, 3.1 WAR That's encouraging... and he's extended. -
Good times never felt...
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Four weeks from last night is Sept 30 -- when the wild card playoffs begin. Just so this is not all doom and gloom, Shea Langeliers went on the IL with an oblique strain on June 5 and was reinstated on June 30. He played in three rehab games before that. In August, Langeliers just led the American League in slugging and total bases, was second in OPS, hit 11 home runs and had 22 RBIs. If it takes the same amount of recovery time for Roman Anthony, he should be rocking by Game Seven of the World Series. Let'sgo!
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Don't worry about a power shortage with Abreu and Anthony on the shelf. They brought up Sogard. The only plus there is that means Rafaela will now be firmly planted in centerfield for the rest of the year. Right? Right??!?? The existing outfield for the contenders is now Duran, Ceddanne, and that one-hit wonder from the Sixties band: Eaton, Ref and Yoshi!
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Nothing yet, but tv blabbers speculating -- after researching the World Wide Web -- that the typical timeline for a batter's oblique injury might have him ready again by the postseason... unless the brass shuts him down for the year. All we can do is shift speculation: Password, right? Hint: Campbell is slated to play 2B in Woo tonight.
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The left side D of Bregman and Story now looks as good as any in the league, but it sure helps the confidence of the entire infield to finally have a legitimate MLB first baseman like Nate Lowe stretching and scooping to finish the plays. With Anthony out for a spell, the question today is who should bat leadoff? Assuming we don't want to mess with the successful #2-3-4 of Bregman-Duran-Story, or RBI guys like Lowe, Romy and Ref, the candidates are narrowed down to Say Gone Rafaela or Mass Attacka Yoshida. Some fans can't stand watching Ceddanne hack at every pitch, but it's an approach we have to accept -- or where would we be without his timely home runs? Masa is a better contact man, and may be heating up, but right now both have season On Base percentages below .300... Nate Eaton, Roman's replacement last night, will probably bat first when he plays. Prediction: Cora will try about 10 other leadoffs down the stretch, based entirely upon nightly match-ups -- including who he has planned to pinch-hit later in the games. It's what we do...
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Breslow may always be defined by his prediction of improvement after trading Devers (unless the starting rotation all wear Tommy John underwear and the Sox fold)... And it's fair to believe this salary dump was part of the plan for signing Bregman. The front office had a young core they knew needed to be locked up if they wanted to sustain contention and avoid kajillions in taxes. How would all those extensions fit into the budget? Hmmm... who makes the most AAV, taking up funds we'd love to spread around the roster? It just defies logic that all those execs with advanced degrees never thought for one second to give their sensitive man-child superstar the respect of discussing their offseason plans for him before they acquired his replacement! All those meetings, all those Assistant VPs, considering all the angles -- the idea must have occurred to someone: "Hey, maybe we should contact his agent... or at least have Cora talk to Raffy... if not, he may throw a fit!" Reply: "Ya, if we don't, he may speak out to the media, sour on the org, maybe even force us to trade him..." Superior: "Exactly- everyone at this meeting is now forever forbidden to repeat this with anyone."
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Who was so fast they used to say, "He runs like a human!" -
I intentionally ignored Devers' post-trade stats because I think his pre-trade impact -- in the dugout, in the clubhouse, on the road trips -- had a much bigger effect on his teammates, coaches and front office. I have no qualitative data to cite, but zero quotes says a lot. Not one Red Sox employee mourned his absence once he was gone.
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Barring injury, the rotation has solid citizens who are reliable. We should be alright. There were no wild cards in 1978, when a Red Sox club with 99 wins is remembered as the best Boston team that never won the pennant -- and for losing a big division lead over the world champs from the Bronx. The Sox didn't have a great September, going 14-15, but they didn't technically choke because they recovered from 3 1/2 games back to win their final eight and force a playoff for the playoffs. Hall of Fame caliber starters Luis Tiant and Dennis Eckersly stepped up to lead the way. The true all-time gaggers were the 2011 Red Sox, who entered September 31 games over 500. Then the pitching staff allowed over 6 runs per game in their last 27, when they went 7-20. That rotation included familiar names: Lester, Lackey, Beckett and Wakefield... (reportedly, some of them may have been distracted that month). Others who started and failed were Eric Bedard and Kyle Weiland. It got so bad that if the Sox had to play a one-game playoff, they were planning on signing journeyman Bruce Chen for the start. A key to this month may be if Cora and Co. can find someone from the bullpen to provide some decent multiple middle innings. The brass is going to want to limit the workload for the starters to save their arms for the intensity of the postseason. For that to work, a few relievers may need to be stretched out...
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Breslow signed or traded for many players who helped this season, and drafted others who might someday. That's a CBO's duty, and I can't ask him to take a bow for doing his job. But 2025 will always be judged by June 15, when Breslow the surgeon removed a big lump that was impeding the full range of motion for all uniformed personnel. Call it a salary dump if you want, because unless Kyle Harrison steps up, the Raffy return wasn't just bad, it was basically Jordan Hicks and Dustin May. But the bottom line is that Brez had the balls to get rid of a massive problem for the organization. Boston was 37-36 when Devers was exiled 3,094 miles away to San Francisco. At the time he led the Sox in home runs, RBIs and OPS. Since then, the Red Sox have gone 40-26.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Not even with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs? While I can't say for sure, I'd bet that bothers a lot of fans watching from home or in the cramped seats of Fenway. LOBsters striking out is a job requirement for Red Sox batters in the 2020s. Modern pitching may be harder to hit than ever -- (unless you ask every single Hall of Famer still alive) -- but batters with a two-strike mindset of making contact is a choice of practice. Lynn, a lefty swinger, intentionally feasted on the Green Monster. We all know Duran is better when his focus is on going oppo. Anthony has shown he can do it, too -- but he's yet to make a consistent adjustment to look away down in the count, and it has led to a ton of Ks lately. Lynn really only had two great seasons where he was the best hitter in the league. But he made the All-Star team nine straight years. If Anthony can replicate that, we'd all take it. Ted Williams was also tall and a left-handed hitter. But he averaged 8.6 WAR for 19 years, and missed 5 primetime seasons serving in the military. BB-Reference considers 8+ WAR as "MVP Quality"... but Ted: every season for 19 years?!?!? -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
In his rookie year, Lynn led the league in runs scored, doubles and slugging, with a 14.9 K-rate. It was a different era: the only Red Sox batter with a worse K-rate in 1975 was Jim Rice, at 19.9... Denny Doyle's for Boston was 3.3. Overall, in his 17-year career, Lynn averaged 25 HRs a year with a 14.1 K-rate. A lot of fans may not want to hear this or read it, but Roman Anthony just tied Trevor Story for the worst K-rate on the club among all regulars: 27.8. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Red Sox just went 17-11 in August. First winning record in August since 2019. Most August wins since 2018, when the eventual curse-breakers went 18-9. 76 wins with 24 games left. Playoffs are likely with a 12-12 split, but nobody wants to play an entire three-game wild card series in the Bronx. The next dozen games could be key for Boston to get ahead of New York. The Sox host Cleveland, then travel to Arizona and Sacramento, before returning to Fenway with a showdown vs. the Yanks. None will be easy -- at least any we think will be -- but it's vital to win now because the Yankees finally have to play contenders with legitimate pitching staffs: Houston, Toronto, Detroit and then Boston... The last dozen lines up patsies for NY, while the Sox finish with stronger opponents and spoilers... -
Don't forget Payton -- who Brez drafted and then promoted a year later... in a wild card race! The #50 pick is only the sixth player from the '24 draft pitcher to make the majors, and second pitcher after #2 overall Chase Burns. Holy Tolle.
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The 12 made by the '04 Sox. The following sacrificed themselves to the baseball gods so that Boston could end a century-old curse and have the greatest comeback in history vs. the New York Chokees along the way: Pokey Reese -- 6 times -- which gave him the mojo to make the final play that won the pennant in the Bronx, and also allow him to be on the field for the final out of the World Series in St. Louis. Others who also sacrificed themselves once each for an opportunity to play in that historic title game: Derek Lowe, Bronson Arroyo, Orlando Cabrera, Gabe Kapler and Mark Bellhorn. One other sacrificed himself once during the season, so he could have the most memorable non-hitting moment of any position player in Red Sox history -- Dave Roberts.

