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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Thanks, notin -- I certainly agree with "short-sighted" to describe my post, because that was basically my point about what I should've said was the average fan. Again, that's not us, or very many who post on forums or even reactions to online articles. I mean, where else do we hear fans wishing Pedroia would retire, just so his AAV won't count towards the lux tax? Sox fans I talk to, including youngsters, don't rue Pedey's contract -- they feel sorry his knee is shot and hate Machado, and like all of us still respect the Dirtdog for always playing hard and looking like he cared almost as much as we do. One young guy even told me he thinks the MLB made a secret Pedroia-rule with the players, telling them all to yell, "Let's Go!" whenever they get excited now, instead of "f*** ya!" -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Good stats. I've thought about the doubles. It didn't seem like Mookie hit many Fenway Wall-scraper pop-ups that he legged out for two-baggers compared to rising liners. His xbh totals may be ok if he finds more gaps in the more spacious NL West parks. -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Is it stupid to call someone's opinion stupid, especially if you're one of the fans who's already admitted he prefers to watch contenders every year... or to look beyond the fanatics who post here every day and just consider the average baseball fan who is not worried about 2027 or even 2021? Teams that want to win need and want great players, and fans naturally want to watch both, because they are connected. It's not hoop, where it's easier for one superstar to dominate the court, but World Series winners are usually led to the postseason by great performers, MVP and Cy Young types. I'm sure you can find examples of groups of pretty good guys who won, like the '15 Royals, but it doesn't take much research or even memory banks to list more playoff winners who were led by stars. -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
My argument since I've joined this forum is that there is absolutely no reason to think Mookie Betts won't continue to star and repeat past performances through his prime. Whichever team gets Betts for ages 27-32 should have a bargain at $35 to $40 mil per year. People can worry all they want about the second-half of the contract, but do any fans really think or care about seven years from now while their team is better and a contender with a Hall of Famer for the next half dozen seasons? I saw some Aaron wrists in Betts' swing from his rookie year, and I do think comparisons are fair thus far in their careers, as the bb-ref all-time rankings show: Greatest Career WAR Ages 21-26 RF (min. 500 games): 1. Mookie Betts 42.0 2. Hank Aaron 37.4 One factor that will determine Betts' power numbers obviously is his new home ballpark. Aaron became more of a pull hitter to take advantage of the Braves moving to "the Launching Pad" in Atlanta, while Mays had no choice but to adjust to an opposite-field swing because winds blowing off the bay at crappy Candlestick Park robbed his longballing. Detractors can predict that Mookie won't hit as many homers without Fenway and Camden Yards to aim at, but balls carry farther in places like Colorado and Arizona. We shall see; the youngest batter to have five 3-HR games in MLB history isn't done yet. -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Thanks for pointing this out; I think I've seen a projected '20 Betts' extension quoted as high as $79 mil with the lux. tax. So if Mookie actually said what Rice said he said, then that may be the first public Dirty Water quote in this whole drama... and open one ray of light through the blinds. I will say this, if Mookie's words were part of a Boston set-up -- a secret pact to transfer him out West for a year, in exchange for prospects and spending room, only to bring him back for eternity -- then I will be even more shocked than if Manfred investigates the Yankees for sign swiping. -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
On guys like Soto and Acuna? Half a decade from now? Maybe you're right, because first they'd have to produce six seasons of 42 WAR like Mookie just did... which may be difficult, according to this list: Greatest Career WAR Ages 21-26 RF (min. 500 games): 1. Mookie Betts 42.0 2. Hank Aaron 37.4 3. Reggie Jackson 28.2 4. Bobby Bonds 26.0 Edit: that's Greatest ever -- so, describing Betts as a "generational talent" may be limited, since the baseball-ref range is 1871 to 2019 -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Moon, all your number breakdowns in values per age look reasonable today, but what some dissenters also need to realize is that four or five years from now, guys like Soto and Acuna may be signing their own longterm contracts for $40 or $50 mil per year. With market adjustments, Mookie's salary at say -- $35 mil at age 35 -- may only be the going rate for average 3.5 to 4 WAR position players. -
I think Downs will be in Boston by mid-summer. They just gave him a locker between Moreland and JD in Fort Myers. Descriptions in scouting reports and his projections offensively and defensively remind me a little of Starlin Castro. Not Robbie Alomar, but a four-time All-Star and .280 bat wouldn't be so bad for one year of Mookie.
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Unless the MLB commits Harry Caray and has another strike work stoppage, I would bet in the next decade the Red Sox will pay $35 million a year to some other player who's not as good as Mookie. I also guarantee that in another decade someone on some forum will post that "Nobody is worth half a billion dollars to play baseball" and then "Nobody is worth $600 million" then "$800 million" then "A billion!!!!" And that's because the market rates will keep rising. But I can't bet you $35 million, because I'm only a hundredaire, not a billionaire, like all the owners of all the MLB franchises who all could pay players like Betts... if they really wanted to... -
2018 Red Sox cheating scandal
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I keep telling you guys: the Yankees are safe. Manfred and the MLB have worked hard emasculating Houston and Boston, clearing the path to a pinstriped postseason. Who's going to challenge New York? Minnesota? The Yankees look at the Twins like Jack Nicholson looked at the lawyers in A Few Good Men: "Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg?" Maybe Manfred's prolonging the Red Sox report so he can interrogate the latest ex-Sox players (though standup guys like Betts and Price are probably persona non ratta). Imagine the mess if the Yankees got investigated? Not only would Cashman and Boone be suspects, but they'd also have to look at Girardi -- it was on his watch that Beltran, McCann, Chris Young and others that Logan Morrison knows about were involved. If Girardi is implicated, that also affects the Phillies' season... Nope, Manfred wants this to go away, especially before it burns down the Bronx. I'd even say most owners would agree, and maybe some would secretly admit that it's too important for the Yankees to win this year -- to help baseball "heal" and ultimately put more money in their own pockets. -
Opening Day lineup.... and roster spots
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to Noles_1335's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don't have stats in front of me, but I never saw a lefty pop one off the wall like Boggs with two strikes. I always thought it intentional and he looked like he could do it whenever he wanted to. Boggs wasn't a punch hitter, but a precision line-drive hitter by design who could've hit with more loft (like they said he did in BP), but chose 50 more hits per year than 20 more HRs. I'll bet he had more doubles per year than Vaughn, though. -
Verdugo was the best possible acquisition that Bloom could've gotten for one year of Betts: a promising player whose best-case may even out-double Betts once he learns how to hit the Monster (when Mookie no longer has the wall as a target)... I just hope the media gives him a fair shot at thriving here, because no one can truly replace Betts. Verdugo's best approach should just be to hustle -- after every fly ball, gapper or base-hit, and especially to first on every grounder, pop-up or longball...
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I have no proof of this, but I'm of the opinion that moving Price was a mandate, and not just because he had the worst contract on the club. The Red Sox are an image-conscious franchise in an entertainment business, and Price's personality was bad for business. If I'm running a company that was ready to make changes, he'd be the first one to go... especially since his athletic contributions were so tenuous going forward. Remember, Boston even tolerated Bill Lee as long as he was still good (in their eyes).
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It wasn't the only reason they traded Mookie, but it was the only way they could get rid of Price. Otherwise, they would've packaged anyone else with Price -- JD, JBJ, Chavis/Dalbec, etc. -- and kept their best player. Instead, the had to give up their best player so someone would take Price off our hands. Sure, Bloom did the best he could getting prospects (instead of a draft pick next winter), but by all accounts the return was worse because Price was included. The better question is, does anyone really believe our new Chief Baseball Officer when he just said the luxury tax wasn't much of a factor in making this trade?
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Price will always be linked with Betts in Red Sox lore as the bad contract that caused them to lose a Hall of Famer. In 20 years or so, when Mookie gets inducted into Cooperstown wearing an LA or Atlanta cap on his plaque, Boston fans will rue this trade even more. By then, most won't even care any more about Price's one great week in October 2018 -- not after all the hardware and rings that Mookie will have accumulated... for somebody else.
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I know a lot of people think Mookie is a mercenary and his only signing factor will be whoever offers the most money... but I have to think if the Red Sox have any chance to get him back (if they so desire), it'd be better if they stay competitive. In other words, if the Sox suck and clean house this summer -- and trade Betts' compatriots JD and JBJ, among others, like many expect -- it makes a Mookie return less likely. He's a competitive athlete who wants to win, and just may prefer a comparative offer from a guaranteed contender like the Braves -- with their star core intact and young solid pitching, not to mention warmer weather closer to Betts' home. Remember, Atlanta only signed Ozuna for one year... perhaps anticipating a run at Betts in '21.
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It's a blessing Price is gone, but just remember not to complain if he thrives in LA, because we all know he wouldn't be as good in the AL East compared to pitching to pitchers, or in most NL West parks. And then he'll just fizzle out like Beckett, Crawford, Manny, AGon, Nomar and Punto. But not Betts...
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Totally agree. And what I've been wondering all winter -- now that Mookie is gone, who exactly are the Sox going to spend all that savings on in a year to boost this club back into contention? Are Henry and Co. all of sudden really going to be satisfied with Bloom stockpiling middling interchangeable prospects that may only ensure Boston will just be ok? Or in two years, will ownership pull another Sybil, snap out of their stupor, and go all in on Lindor -- who just might be the perfect replacement for Betts: a five-tool, always smiling superstar, who may be even more valuable as a switch-hitting shortstop?
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I just read this and have to reply: I personally never wanted Price, even before he was signed by DD. His history as a failed starter in the postseason, plus his whining about Papi watching how far playoff pitches went over the fence were immediate red flags to me. And then Boston went and made him the highest paid pitcher ever. And it enrages me to think that the Red Sox just traded one of their best players in history to get rid of one of their worst contracts in history. People can complain all they want about the Sale and Eovaldi deals. The one that will now and forever live in infamy is the one that forced Mookie Betts out the door.
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I made fun of it, but only because a lot of guys made fun of me all winter when I insisted Bloom would hold out for a haul of prospects and/or MLB-ready players. But I was convinced he had to win this trade, at least in getting Verdugo on the dollar, and not Pederson, Pollock, Myers or Nimmo. I was also convinced -- like a lot of people -- that an "overpay" would only come from a club going for it now (with a deep farm), like LA or Atlanta. I realized the latter was a longshot and hoped I was wrong... still wish...
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I just wish he would give one straight answer to a straight question. It's hard to trust politicians, which is what they all sound like now... except maybe BOH -- he actually looked pissed or troubled sitting up there tonight. Maybe it's because he's been with Betts from the beginning; Bloom the outsider has no emotional connection or past (maybe that's why he hired, as the perfect executioner).
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Opening Day lineup.... and roster spots
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to Noles_1335's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I just hope the Red Sox trade all their best players for minor leaguers to make it easier for the Yankees. And bat Devers, their best hitter, fifth and not #2 or #3 so he won't get up in the first inning. -
... Ninja, roid-raging, bat-barrel Piazza-throwing, Dave Stewart-playoff-losing, IN-THE-SHOWAH..........RAAAAAAAAAAAH-----JERRRRRRKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!

