5GoldGlovesOF,75

These are my top four right now: Rocker is everybody's #1, so there's no way three other clubs pass on him. Leiter has the pedigree, and he just may be available. But I really think this year's college season, if completed, will play a big part in reshuffling the rankings, depending on player performance. Who knows, maybe even a summer league will raise a guy's stock, since the draft isn't until July again. From what I read, the two best position players -- in regards to hit tools and future stardom -- look like Fabian and Del Castillo. I'm leaning towards either one over Leiter, but only after what the imprecise science of drafts reveals in my recent study of Top 10s.

Here are the "aces" drafted and where they were picked in the Top 10 the 16 years from 2000 to 2016: #1s -- Price, Strasburg, Cole; 2 -- Prior, Verlander; 3 -- Bauer; 6 -- Grienke, Andrew Miller (became an ace reliever for a few years); 7 -- Kershaw, Harvey, Fried, Nola; 10 -- Lincecum, Bumgarner. A lot of other pitchers who flopped were drafted ahead of those guys. Best class had to be 2006, when Miller, Kershaw and Lincecum went 6, 7 and 10... and Scherzer was 11. Just to show how unpredictable this all is, these four pitchers were chosen 1, 2, 4 and 5: Luke Hochevar KC, Greg Reynolds Col, Brad Lincoln Pitt, and Brandon Morrow Seattle (Tampa took Longoria at 3).

I want a guarantee that Devers gets up in the first inning. Of anyone in the lineup, Rafie has the potential to crush one at any time, and grabbing a quick-strike lead just seems to matter more in the modern age of bullpen game plans. I especially want him batting in the first in double-headers (seven inning games)!

I'm not disagreeing, but just assuming GMs and front offices have groups of players targeted beyond the now, with plan As, plan Bs, plan Cs, etc. I can't imagine an organization saying, "We can't afford to spend this winter, but next year we can buy what we need", without eyeing specific possibilities and especially, player availability. This is not the same as like shopping, say, for clothes. For example, fans can always buy pants... maybe we'll get one more year out of those worn jeans, and upgrade next year. But if GMs wait too long, there may only be shorts left for sale. They have to look ahead (which is why we're getting suspicious something is wrong with the unsigned Odorizzi).

I was just using Soto as an example. But we all saw the big whiteboards with players names ranked in columns on Moneyball. You just know these clever analytics departments have boards all over the conference room, arranged chronologically, adjacent to each other, with year-by-year projected lineups and rotations, based on player contract years, ETAs of prospects, and potential free agent signings and/or trade targets. If they didn't, they'd be less prepared than those that do... I bet some intern's job is to periodically update the boards, rearranging names according to the latest transactions data (or like when the police update their crime family charts after a boss gets locked up or whacked).

For all we know, the longterm plan may include making a run at Juan Soto in five years. In the meantime, the Sox could have Big Papi building a rapport with the budding billionaire, extolling the virtues of a passionate New England fanbase (they're both from Santo Domingo). And then Boston can pay him more money than Mookie, who may have earned a few more rings and awards -- even though Soto will never be the runner or defender that Betts is.

With the moves they kept making, the Red Sox were definitely going for it heading into -- and throughout -- 2018. But based on the contract extensions heading into 2019, I do think they were planning on sustainability. We can argue in hindsight of the wisdom of those contracts, but the front office, the team, and the fans certainly thought the Sox would continue to contend for another ring, at least in '19.

In an attempt to get an idea of the chances of choosing an actual future star in the draft, I looked up the history of MLB drafts from 2000 to 2015 (I stopped there because players in '16 and beyond are just beginning to make an impact). I counted all pitchers and position players chosen, and noted whether they became at least good starting regulars in the bigs. Pitchers were drafted most often in the Top 10: out of 160 picks, 87 were pitchers... and so far, 14 can arguably be considered aces. Of those 14, only 4 were the first pitchers picked in their year, including Price, Strasburg and Cole at Number 1 overall (Mark Prior, who had one great year before getting hurt, was a Number 2). In comparison, 21 of the 73 position players picked in the Top 10 are considered studs in the majors. My ratings are conservative; for example, in '15 I counted Bregman the lone star over other regulars like Swanson, Benintendi, Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ, Brendan Rogers. The math (if done correctly) reveals these odds: for teams picking a pitcher in the Top 10 -- finding an ace is at 16%. For those clubs picking a position player, the odds of choosing a great regular is 29%... Overall, the odds of drafting a future ace pitcher in 16 years of Top 10 picks is 8%, while the odds of drafting a great regular is 18%.

No, I think the translation for Villar is like village or hamlet. Some may view Villar as a veritable fortress around the bag...

But we signed a guy named Hiro for the pen. At least Bloom didn't sign a Villain.

Wonder why Odorizzi, the consensus second-best free agent starter, hasn't signed yet...

JBJ was the consensus second-best centerfielder in this winter's free agency... but that was only from talking heads and typing fingers in the industry (not fan forums).

Boras must be negotiating an acceptable offer for JBJ somewhere. I don't think Bradley misread the market, although maybe Boras did. Springer signed for $150 million, so does everyone really think he's worth three times more than Jackie? WAR 2016-2020: Springer 21.3, Bradley 15.4. Both were also postseason MVPs. If, indeed, JBJ is only worth 33% of George's value for the next half decade... is it really that unreasonable that Boras is asking for $50 Mil?

I did say the Sox have made encouraging improvements, and I do think they'll finish ahead of the O's and maybe a few others. I also think every team -- when it feels it is time -- shouldn't be afraid to "win now", because if they do win it all, the potential fan interest that generates can carry over for years (while they suffer the consequences). That is, except for spoiled fandoms in places that always demand contenders -- cough, cough, the Bronx, and ahem, Red Sox Nation. If there's any team that might pull away from the pack this year, I'm taking the Blue Jays. And not just because of offseason acquisitions, but because those additions can supplement and take the pressure off Toronto's wealth of young talent, which is due to dominate the East at any minute. I'd take the Sox over the Rays, too, except Tampa has too many Top 100 prospects threatening to break out, as well.

There were games that year when even the Sox two best defenders looked less hungry than they did their previous three years together, not always calling for catchable flies or backing each other up. They all looked like they had the hangover effect at times. There is hope on D -- and this may be why Cora said yesterday that Kike will probably play second base some innings every game this season: 2020 MLB Range Factor/9 Inn as 2B (put-outs + assists / innings played): 1. EHernandez.

Betts' range and Fenway's relatively small centerfield territory have both been mentioned in the industry for reasons why JBJ's metrics don't rate him higher among peers. Also, since this is the realistic thread: if EHern was as good as Jackie in center, he would've been a regular centerfielder in the majors somewhere -- if not LA, then for another club willing to trade value for him. Kike has been in the bigs since age 22, and to say he's developed into a better centerfielder now at age 28 contradicts (to me) that a Gold Glover like JBJ has developed into a worse centerfielder at 30... worse, that is, than a guy who's never played there fulltime.

I felt fat-i-goo from sitting around for a year avoiding Covid.

Right, but it just feels like this may be a point in this ownership/Chief Officer's history that they can't afford to miss with such a high pick. That is, until they show that they can afford to pay for transcendent talent again.

And you're right, it was the perfect time to tank. The only problem is not being able to watch and evaluate potential draft picks the past year. Because of that, some gems may just elude the first few rounds.

What new revelations am I missing here? The only new thing we learned this winter is that even Cora said he stopped watching, too, last summer.

And if it was a 162-game season, the '20 Red Sox may have lost 100 games. Or Houck and Pivetta may have led them to the playoffs. But they didn't, and they didn't. All we know for sure is that Boston was the worst team in the division. I'm not down on any of the offseason acquisitions. There are many players that went to other teams that I would have preferred, but by now we all understand why the Sox didn't sign them. That feeling among us may change if Cora has them close to contending and Bloom doesn't add reinforcements, or if they have another losing year and don't open the wallets next winter.

While people who post about baseball all year long may not be average fans, we may represent overall reactions. We are a spoiled lot, used to contending and winning titles this century, and often fortifying our chances with high-profile talent. The acquisitions this offseason have ranged from part-time yet versatile depth and stockpiled prospects to never-has-beens. Some of them will help and some will be beyond help. Remember, this is a last place team until they're not anymore. When this administration starts adding established bonafides or even legitimates on the way up (instead of on the way back), the reactions will be more commensurate with the encouraging improvements.

First we should sign Jake "Blues" Odorizzi (brother of Elwood) -- he's not ancient, but his namesake once had a bit part as John "Bluto" Blutarsky in an entire movie about Ancient Greeks...

While I'm not advocating a multi-year for JBJ -- and would be beyond shocked (more irked, since Bloom avoided multi-years for a lot of "better" all-arounders at many positions this winter) -- he remains an elite defender. I'm sure there are stats that show Bradley isn't as good as many other centerfielders -- he also had a 1.000 fielding % and finished in the 99th percentile in outs above average in '20 -- but none of those matter much to me. When a longball off the bat is launched and Jackie starts jogging, you know he's got it. JBJ is the best the Sox have had out there in half a century -- according to Fred Lynn -- and whether he's lost a step or a few mph off his cannon, he's still only 30. An artisan doesn't forget how to do his forte in his prime. His skills can still help a good team become a great team, and just like with Mookie, we will be watching replays (at least) of future highlights for years to come... because defense wins championships.

We already have a cancelled player and ST's just begun... Teams aren't going to risk pushing full returns on guys like ERod in the beginning, or probably throughout the entire first half. Pitching depth will be more of a factor than ever, most likely with younger arms bouncing back faster than older vets who opted out in '20; for example, Kopech should be better than Price or King Felix. As always, the best teams may just be those lucky or crafty enough to receive break-out seasons by pleasant surprises on the mound -- like a Sixto Sanchez starting or a Devin Williams relieving. Do the Sox have any of those candidates this year?