That's a reasonable prediction... if the players returning from injury regain above-average production, and the rookies contribute at least a combined 3 wins through WAR.
But here's my problem: if they don't, Boston isn't improved, and could certainly regress, too.
Crochet and Buehler are here, and hopefully will be stars (again, the word hope). Statistically, they barely replace Pivetta, who started 12 games in the second half of last season and worked 64.1 IP. Crochet also started 12 and was limited to 38.2 IP. Buehler started 8 and went 38.1 IP.
The killer could be the bullpen. Gone are decent to good set-up man Martin and closer Jansen. Breslow did not replace them with equitable talent. Hendriks and Chapman might be good again -- but is anyone convinced they will be? By midseason, would it surprise if Whitlock and Slaten got the 8th and 9th?
All pitchers are susceptible to arm injuries at any time. But based on the history of virtually all Boston's current starters and relievers as question marks, how can prognosticators claim with confidence that the Red Sox are definitely improved?