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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    They also weren't top ten college catchers, the track record there is good. Joe Mauer and Buster Posey were top ten picks (although Joe was a HS guy). Over the last ten years the worse college catcher taken in the first round has been Zack Collins who was taken #10 overall and he's still in the big leagues, most draft picks don't even make the majors. But even he still has a chance to make it, as he's relatively young and hit well in the minors. Me personally, I'd rather have a defensive stud with average offense, maybe even below average if the rest of the lineup is good. And you can easily sign or trade for one of those guys if you don't have one in your system. It would be like putting a poor defender out in CF just because he can hit, why not just move him to LF? I'm not saying Davis isn't going to be a good catcher, but it's his arm that is what has scouts raving about him behind the plate. Honestly, I'd value blocking and framing much more than controlling the run game. I have come around on Davis though. I'm not attached to him at #4 but I'd be excited to have him in the system.
  2. Hugh2
    yeah, that's what I thought too but someone on another forum pointed out the track record of catchers drafted in the top ten and it's really really really good. Catchers take more time to develop, but with Davis the bat is elite, that a team might consider him a top ten talent with his bat alone. He's got plenty of arm for 3rd.
  3. Hugh2
    I was really down on Davis for a long time, for no real good reason other than I don't like Catching prospects, and I have no real good reason for that either. I'm starting to come around on Davis, if the defense improves behind the plate then he's a potential franchise player. If he moves to third, he still has 1st division starter upside with his bat. But I'd take Leiter over Davis at this point, even if college bats are a safer bet I like the risk/reward shot at a MLB starting pitcher. Really like the highschool short stops, both Mayer/Lawlar are 5 tool talents.
  4. Hugh2
    Kiley McDaniel on the top of the draft: The Pirates (No. 1 pick) are believed to be down to Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, with price playing a big part in their decision -- with Jack Leiter and/or Henry Davis as long-shot options. The Rangers (No. 2) are generally seen to prefer Leiter and Davis, but it appears they haven't made any firm decisions yet, so it's early. The Tigers (No. 3) are known to love Mayer and they've always loved SEC power pitchers, so Leiter is likely second on their board, but there's a split in the industry on who'd they take if those players go 1-2. Sources have suggested Lawlar, Kumar Rocker, Brady House, and, with some late momentum, Jobe. Boston (No. 4) has long been tied to Rocker, but I don't know if that is to be believed; I'm buying into Davis links much more.
  5. Hugh2
    Teams don't draft for need, they often draft BPA. Huff could be close to FA, or have fallen off a cliff by the time Davis is MLB ready, also Davis is considered an all star caliber bat with the athleticism and arm to play 3B. If you keep him at catcher, and he becomes one of the best prospects in the game and you like Huff, you can always trade a guy like Davis to fill in a hole elsewhere. The Tigers love taking college bats too so I think there's a good chance Davis is gone before we pick, but a lot can happen. Good chance Leiter goes, and if two of the HS short stops from this class go early then it's probable that Davis slips to us.
  6. Hugh2
    I think they totally lost faith in Benintendi. Not sure how they felt about him long term too, as undersized players often do not age well. I think some are underestimating the return Bloom got for him, not sure what these people expected. Bloom has a pretty darn good track record over making moves like this.
  7. Hugh2
    If the Sox thought Duran was ready they would not have let him go to the Olympic trial games. Santana is the guy, and you hope he can at least somewhat replicate his 2019. They didn't sign Santana to sit in Worcester all year, he was always first guy up. I think after Santana Duran starts to get a look, maybe in August. If Santana is performing, or even if the offense picks up in other areas and it's not as much a concern I don't think we see Duran this year. But if Santana starts laying eggs all year then I could see them bring him up even if hes not ready but close to ready. I think the Sox plan on him being close to ready to ready by the end of this year. If they're in a situation where they don't need him he gets his cup of coffee in September.
  8. Hugh2
    A lot of revenue comes from the branding, marketing, and tv deals. Many of these teams, especially the big market teams are flush with cash, and those are the teams you're competing with for a guy like Xander. Maybe a year after Covid you don't have teams like the Seattle Mariners making that once a decade big splash competing for Bogaerts, but you still have everyone else.
  9. Hugh2
    I think there's a fair argument that Xander give the Red Sox another below-market deal, but he's still going to opt out for a better deal.
  10. Hugh2
    If anything, Franchys success at the AAA level is proof (not that anyone should have needed it) that you don't just scout a Milb stat line and declare a guy ready. There can be many holes in a players game that an organization sees that we do not looking at a box score. But at the same time, sometimes a guy has nothing else to learn except how to adjust to MLB pitching.
  11. Hugh2
    .780 to .750? I think you mean .785 to .721. That's not a massive difference, but significant enough to call one player better than the other offensively.
  12. Hugh2
    Beni's offense is much better than JBJ's. I'd be more concerned with Benintendi's size, guys with his physicality do not age well. He's not the guy you want to sign to a long term deal. It's easy to fall in love with all every MLB player that comes up through the system but the reality is you have to man a 25 man roster. Hard decisions are made, I would have been ok with the Sox keeping AB and seeing if he could regain his level of play and go for a run this year but I understand why they made the trade too.
  13. Hugh2
    Among all MLB shortstops RBIs 4th AVG 1st OBP 1st SLG 1st HR 5th 2B 1st Defensive metrics put him middle of the pack for MLB ss. Xander is the best player at arguably the most premium offensive position. If Bogaerts doesn't opt out, it will be because he gets injured and starts sucking.
  14. Hugh2
    This is what Bloom does, this is what he did in Tampa bay. He loads a system up with talent knowing most of them are going to bust. You don't need all of these guys to be good, sure that would be amazing and anything is possible, but he's putting his eggs into multiple baskets.
  15. Hugh2
    Xander Bogaerts is in the conversation for the best player in the game. He's still in his 20's where's other guys with his level of talent are inking deals north of 300 million. He might still be willing to give us a discount, but he's opting out.
  16. Hugh2
    Why do we always assume that these players are huge fans of the Red Sox just like us? yet history and precedent tells us Xander will opt out. Yeah, he might not, but odds are he's opting out.
  17. Hugh2
    3/60 is much closer than 3/30. Hendricks is making 18 million a year. He signed that deal in his 30's, Barnes is in his prime. We also see the trajectory of salaries goes up every single year. We have every reason to believe Barnes would continue that trend. 3/60 is not too high of a projection. It might be too high for the Sox, and some fans, but I'd be willing to bet someone out there would give Barnes that money.
  18. Hugh2
    Unless something changed, he has opt outs. Opt-out available after 2019, $2.5M buyout Additional opt-out available after 2020, no buyout Additional opt-out available after 2021 https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/j.d.-martinez-8690/
  19. Hugh2
    Why would Barnes take close to 1/2 of what other closers are starting to get?
  20. Hugh2
    I'm not even sure Stanek was pitching the 8th for the rays towards the middle of 2019. I don't think that's a fair comp to trading who might be the best closer in the game right now. https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2019/7/31/20749198/marlins-rays-ryne-stanek-jesus-sanchez-trevor-richards-nick-anderson-trade
  21. Hugh2
    Franchy might not ever be "mlb ready". some guys, sometimes just need time at the MLB level to sink or swim. Hard to live with a black hole in your lineup. I don't think it's a bad thing that Cordero is getting every day at bats, swinging well with confidence at AAA. I suspect he will get another shot at some point this year. It would be awesome to see this kid put it all together.
  22. Hugh2
    yeah 5-95 was generous, sucking could change things though.
  23. Hugh2
    Agents absolutely put out their clients bonus demands. Teams know what it will take to sign these guys.
  24. Hugh2
    If you're in playoff contention you don't trade your closer. Right now I'd say it's more like 5-95. Let the Sox be 10 games under .500 in two months then maybe it's greater than 50%
  25. Hugh2
    Look at the stat line, he's obviously mlb ready
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