Hugh2

Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them. 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA Interesting take by Law having Rocker above Leiter. It has felt like Leiter is above Rocker but people have also been saying that's not a 100% consenus. Callis at MLBPipline has us taking the college catcher, Davis at #4.

It all comes down to who the Sox like. I think there's a decent chance they get a Leiter/Rocker, but they could easily like a guy like House, or maybe even Davis if they really believe in the bat. If they think Davis would be a better MLB hitter one day than those guys would be a pitcher......then you'd draft the hitter.

I mean, if all else was equal maybe, but I'd suspect most of the time, particularly at the top of the draft you have player A ranked over player B. The draft is such a crapshoot, and unlike other sports, you're not getting everday value out of these guys for 4-6 years. The team doesn't draft on need, nor do most. I think when you get to the bottom of the draft, and with undrafted free agents you see teams filling in rosters for their affiliates, otherwise, you can always trade hitting for pitching.

But even in a normal year I think the MLb is a little tougher to project.

This year I think is harder to project than other years. There doesn't seem to be that one stand out guy at the top, there are 5-7 guys who conceivably could go #1, also Covid really screwed things up for players and scouting departments, but I think that may play out more in the back of the first round which may end up being ever harder to project.

I'm fairly certain MLB drafts are 100% BPA, with that said some teams might be more comfortable with College Bats over HS bats etc etc.

Maybe not, a lot of people have the Rangers and Pirates nabbing the top HS short stops at the top, if that happens one of Leiter and Rocker would fall to the Sox. We could see guys cut a deal at the top too, so someone like House could go off the board too. I think there's a very good chance at least one of them is still there.

That's a pretty good guess as they're two of the best prospects in this entire draft, it would be hard to pass on them there. But, I do think the Sox are going to take BPA, and that could easily be Lawler or Mayer if they fall there, and maybe even Brady and house too.

Oh I'm sorry, what I meant to say was you have to go back 5-10 years until you can even start looking. If I want to see how good the "top 5" picks are, I'll start in 2016 and start working my way backwards.

You mean that we can't start looking at the hit rate for young draftees unless we go back at least 5 years? I'd agree, I think that's what you kind of have to do because even top prospects who excel can easily spend 2-3 years in the minors, and sometimes even all-star caliber players need a year or two in the majors to adjust.

Remember the return for Mookie = Verdugo + Jeter Downs. You could add in how the spend the cash Mookie is getting now, but that will be almost impossible to quantify over the next several years.

Someone over on the Soxprospects forum went back and looked at top 5 picks for a couple of decades and found only two players who did reach the MLB level. This high in the draft, busts are unlikely (if you judge boom/bust by a player being a big leaguer). Personally, I'd prefer someone who is a little bit more than that picking so high.

It sounds more like guys are rising rather than other players are dropping. It makes sense, Covid changes a lot and scouting departments have been playing catch up all spring.

I never really bought into the ideal that we don't draft pitchers because they're risky and we had a bad track record. If you feel you're scouting, and developing pitchers poorly compared to other teams the solution isn't to draft hitters but rather make changes to your scouting and development department. While I've always thought a lot of the problem was just bad luck (developing pitchers is hard), I've always found it tough to assess. It could take you 4-6 years to develop a guy to a point to where he's an everyday contributor so any time you're looking at a lack of pitching depth it's really an indictment from the organization's past. I would honestly be ok with a hitter or a pitcher, I feel like one of the top college arms is going to fall to us, and I won't be upset if it was Kumar or Leiter. Interesting to see what Bloom does, not just with the 4th pick but with the depth in this draft.

I don't think the Sox are ready to move on yet, but if Santana hits at the MLB their hand might be forced. I don't think they're going to rush Duran, if they're getting absolutely nothing in LF and they're still competitive come August. Kind of like when Will Middlebrooks became a black hole in the Sox lineup and they rushed Bogaerts to the majors. It happens, but Santana could make everyone life easier if he can just repeat 2019 and then no one has to get rushed.

I think people don't see the potential he has which causes some of the upset. But, what's potential? Trey Ball had potential, Will Middlebrooks had potential, at a certain point you have to perform. I think the Sox line of thinking is Cordero has already spent enough time at the AAA level and hit it pretty well, if he's going to make the adjustments to tap into potential as a power hitter he's got to do it at the MLB level. I think there's a point where they give up on Cordero and he plays his way down, but I think they'd rather have someone else be the up/down guy until they're ready to give up on him. It would be a lot easier to give him some more rope if the Sox weren't so darn competitive this year!!!

Maybe, but maybe a terrible track record for developing pitchers is an argument for drafting a hitter and developing him. If your system is loaded with hitting prospects you can always trade for pitching. I mean, if you count Buccholz the Sox haven't drafted a viable starter since 2005. To at least some extent, one has to think that's luck, and I'm sure the personnel in the Sox system is different today than it was 10 years ago because when it comes down to it you should trust your scouting and development personnel. I think they go BPA, hard to pass up a high school shortstop if you think they will be the next Manny Machado. I think if one of Mayer, Lawler, or House makes it to Boston there is a decent chance they go for the upside there. Couldn't be too upset with one of the Vandy boys though, both could be middle of the rotation starters relatively soon in the majors with a chance to be slightly better.

I doubt we will ever see Workman again in Boston, I hope I'm wrong. I think you see Brennan this year, I don't expect much from him as I see him as an emergency up/down guy, but you're going to need that at least once this year. Wish Chavis had a position, I think he will hit eventually, but I'm not sure how much teams can hold on for ok offense when the defense is subpar everywhere.

That 474 foot Home Run was a nice reminder of why the Sox have Francy out there. The potential is huge, getting pretty tough to defend the guy with his performance at this point but it's there.

Just goes to show you how all over the place this can be. There are about 6 guys now who have projected as #1 over the past couple of months now. It will be interesting to see 3 straight high school short stops taken giving the Red Sox the first crack at the college arms. But you have to wonder if the Sox really like one of Mayer/Lawlar and would take them if they fall to them. If that was the case I guess you have to throw House in there too. Actually mlb.com has House mocked to Boston but we will see. Most mock drafts have those two guys going #1 and #2 but there's also a LOT of talk about no one separating themselves at the top this year. There is not a consensus #1 pick in this draft, but rather a tier of 5-6 guys, so things could get very interesting on draft day. Apparently, Henry Davis has established himself as the best college bat in the lineup, Catchers don't go in the top 10 often, they turn out pretty good when they do so I guess I should be more excited if the Sox take him but for some reason drafting a good catcher who's #1 tool is his arm strength just isn't that sexy to me at #4.

He's not getting called up because he might not be ready. He's played 18 games above AA ball where he put up .646 ops. I know he's made adjustments, but that doesn't mean he's ready to make the next jump. There's a very large list of players who get rushed and struggle at the MLB level, even studs like Xander Bogaerts came up and put up pedestrian numbers, and Duran is not Xander. Duran has also only faced 2 pitching staff in his 18 games above AA (Buffalo and Syracuse). I think we will see him up at some point this year, but I'm sure the Sox still has some things they want him to work on, and if Santana plays well it makes the decision to wait easier.

The whole Sale/Greenville switch is still messing with my head.

You would think a pitcher who fits that profile would maximize the value of good defense behind him.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/podcast-whos-no-1-breaking-down-the-most-uncertain-draft-in-years/

The only reason I like Rocker over Leiter is his size and workhorse frame. Lot of people ilke Leiter over Rocker for good reason. When he's been on he's the more dominant pitcher and his velocity I believe has started to tick back up. I just like to dream on the upside of him if his consistency take even a small tick up.