Hugh2

ding ding ding ding ding. So you assume Story moves over to SS and they sign a 2nd baseman? WHy? the FA class for short stops is 10000X better than second baseman PLUS it's been said over and over again Story's arm is best suited for 2nd now. I don't think it's out of question Story plays SS in 2023, but it's so unlikely, its not really worth the discussion. IDK, If i had to guess, I'd say it's maybe a 2% chance. How likely do you think its? And if he does move to SS, who plays second?

Ironically with many of the same guys who got us to the ALCS on the DL. We need a GM who can predict future DL stints!!!!!!! Who is he????? Where is he?????

lol, so the Sox resigning Bogey has nothing to do with Story playing SS. Then why didn't Story play SS in 2022? riddle me that.

That would be a steal for Lopez even if Garcia rode the DL all year. If Garcia bounces back it's a heist. BTV is great, but very imperfect.

Who says the Sox HAVE to sign a SS? They don't have to do anything. It's a highly intelligent and logical argument that they will. Storys decline in arm strength (perhaps overblown), and the Sox repetitive talk of him staying at 2nd, and their talk of prioritizing Bogaerts makes it abundantly clear they're targeting a SS. Every GM realizes there are 29 other teams doing the same thing. If you have a plan A and no other plan you're not doing your job. I'm sure there's a scenario where they sign Jurickson Profar to play 2nd and move Story over to SS. But that's probably Plan E or F at this point. Plan A,B,C,D is likely Bogaerts, Correa, Turner, Swanson. Story could very well end up playing SS in 2023. But does anyone actually think this is likely?????

Just for the record. I don't think this makes others wrong and me right. You won't hear me say this very often many other times but I have a lot of stupid ideals.

After 3 years the loss of revenue-sharing rebates equates to over a hundred million dollars a year. I think that's by far and wide the largest deterrent for staying over the line long term.

I get the "it ain't my money" argument. It just perplexes me that people think it's a rational argument. It's freaking stupid for two reasons. 1. It might not be "our" money, but it is someone else's money. Imagine you worked for a company, and you were upset with them for not spending so much money on amenities, to the point they would be in the red. Everyone would hate you and be like "dude, just effing quit and go somewhere else". It's juvenile, It's like a kid teenager being upset that mommy and daddy can't buy him all the toys in the world because he has no concept of budgeting money. 2. Whether or not we like it, it's reality. People budget. Poor people, rich people, and all good businessmen alike. Do people think that Rich men who own businesses just have all their money in some pile like Uncle Scrooge and go swimming in it? and have no concept of balancing a budget? no that's moronic. The Sox have a budget, and every move you make affects the rest of the roster. In regards to the latter, I would understand the strife amongst fans if the Sox were frugal with their money like the Oakland A's. But that's not a reality, they're top 5 in spending every year for the past 2 1/2 decades. They've had last-place finishes and turned it around before and they will never stink long term at the rate they spend. There's nothing more in this world than I would like for the Sox to have a bottomless wallet. Lets go out and sign Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign Degrome, and sign a bunch of other guys. But that's not realistic, this is a REALISTIC view of 2023. Do we realize what REALISTIC means? Imagine I was a 280 lb obese man (and I used to be before I lost 100 lbs). Imagine hiring a personal trainer. Is that guy going to sell me pie in the sky and tell me I'm going to be a buff man in a year? no, he'd be lying to me. Realistically, I had to work hard at it every day in the gym and with my diet for over 3 years to reach my goal. That was reality, we live in a country were obesity runs rampant and fake diet pills is a billion-dollar industry because people don't live in reality. I like the concept of realistically talking about what the Sox can or can not do, or likely will do. Anything more than that is like talking about what I would do if I won the lottery, yeah it's fun to dream but serves no purpose in reality when planning to take care of my family. I like to stay true to the meaning of this thread and have it based on reality. And look, to each their own, even in "reality" opinions can vary widely. But every time I hear the "well it ain't my money" argument I'm going to chuckle and not take someone seriously, because you're not being serious. Ya'll can do you.

Even if they didn’t reset this year, it would be 99.99% likely they’d reset next. Which means this years budget pours over into next. It matters, and it’s 100% relevant to the conversation making it important if we want to talk about what this off-season should look like.

Who? Years of precedent between this team and every other team avoiding the penalties, countless interviews from front office personal over the years. And expert analysis and expert analysis. Maybe you don’t care, it ain’t your problem, Bloom “has guys” to look over that for him. But this is a realistic discussion, and realistically they are probably resetting this year.

Yes, everyone has a right to an opinion, all opinions matter. I think the only issue with this team is we need a better base running coach. That's it, and no one here can tell me otherwise.

I would not be surprised if Swanson is the best value going forward. He could be coming into his prime right now. He might be a 5 WAR player thats going to be paid like a 3 WAR guy. Here's a crazy thought, sign both Bogaerts, and Nimmo. Play Nimmo in CF, play Bogaerts in LF, have Verdugo get back into (not bulking) shape and play him in RF, move Story to SS and play Kike at 2B. Kike's is a plus defender there and maybe this is just a coincidence buy his offense is much much better when he's playing the infield.

also, they will probably spend around another 4-5 million on rookies. So isn't the true budget somewhere around 85 million? I don't know TBH, the true numbers always seem to elude us.

Does JBJ's 8 million still count against the cap in 2023?

I just don't understand why we don't go after all these No risk High reward deals.

Just go Bogaerts/DeGrome/Nimmo and call it a day. If the Sox are content going over the cap then I'd offer a QO to one of Wacha/Eovaldi as well. DeGrome Sale Wacha/Eovaldi Bello Pivetta Whitlock/Crawford/Winc Hill/Paxton? CF - Nimmo SS - Bogaerts 3B - Devers 1B - Casas 2B - Story CF - Kike LF - Verdugo DH - Hosmer/Dalbec C - McGuire/Wong

The Paxton deal I think was always about 2023, with the hope that maybe he could be a late season pick-up for 2022 which didn't materialize and wouldn't have mattered anyways. His setback seems to have been minor. I think it's fair and wise to move on and cut the losses BUT I'd be happy to have him at 4 million. I don't think it's out of the question he exercises it.

That same group also says JD might get 3/54... ughh no. That's probably within the ballpark of what Bogaerts gets though. FWIW Clemens prediction of 7/217 was my exact prediction here and in other places. But I'm starting to think his real market value will fall somewhere between. Maybe 6/180 7/200 If those crowdsource numbers were 100% accurate predictors of the future, I'd just spend the 10 million more on Turner.

Regardless, Sox are probably going to have to spend 25-30 million up the middle on someone this offseason.

Devers gets 300/10 in the open market. Bogaerts probably gets somewhere around 200/7. Sox got to meet at least one of those asking prices. I think there's more wiggle room to move down with Bogaerts number than Devers. He's a few years older and there are other options out there.

I can't find the source anymore so I don't remember how reliable it is. But I was hearing rumors there is a lot of interest in Paxtons camp to exercise his 4 million option.

Actually, scratch that, it's whatever their revenue share refund would have been. If they stay over for 3 years they become a disqualified market and 1/2 the money goes back into the pool and 1/2 goes to a players benefits fund. I think the big take away is there are very harsh penalties for staying over the line for a prolonged period of time. It's very narrow-sighted and naive to just sit around and say "well it ain't my money". If we are going to have intellectual, realistic, and rational baseball conversations moving forward then it should be under the assumption that the Boston Red Sox are going to go under the luxury tax line either this off-season or the next.

I think it might be substantially more than 100 million. It's going to be about 48% of their revenue. Probably a little less than 48% because I'm guessing the Sox make more money than the average MLB team.

If we stay over next year it will be the third year over the tax line, which means they're going to get under. Wait....do they lose revenue sharing AFTER 3 years? like....they can spend over for 3 but get under for the 4th? or do they need to reset on the 3rd year. I'm not sure. Maybe you're right on this.

You do know if they don't reset they end up losing up to hundreds of millions a year? A billionaire isn't coming along to make no money every year just for our excitement.