Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Let me reiterate a point from above. YOU CAN NOT just go by batting average. Especially in a small sample size. It’s a lesson some just never learn. There’s so much happening with a guy in the minors that you never see or know. But the team does. Here’s a perfect example. Jarren Duran. He was batting .195 in AAA before he got called up. If we went with Arm chair GMs take on stat hunting we’d have moved Kike to CF and brought Hamilton up to play SS, and that might have been a disaster. But aren’t you happy they saw what lies underneath and called up Duran? I certainly am. Because sometimes talk like it’s advance stats vs. “the eye test” ummmm, it’s both.
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3 weeks ago I was beating the Casas will be elite drum despite pushback from seemingly everyone. My reasoning was simple, and I said the same thing about Yoshida. His plate approach is elite, he was still walking and was top 10 in all of MLB in pitches seen per plate appearance. No one can have that elite knowledge of a strike zone and not eventually hit. Also, as a rabid follower of prospects I saw Casas briefly struggle after a few promotions only to quickly figure it out. You have to look at more than just a BA. The kid has the plate discipline we wish Devers had that would truly make him elite. Will Casas be that guy? I think if he can hit LHP better he could be. Now we just need a RHB for the next several years to split Devers and Casas. Even in the minors it’s absolutely INSANE how many LHB this teams has.
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May 12th Cardinals @ Red Sox
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Connor wong has surprising pop. Doesn’t look like a typical power hitter but he can hit ‘em far for a littler guy. -
May 12th Cardinals @ Red Sox
Hugh2 replied to moonslav59's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Told y’all not to freak out on those bad AAA starts. Never know what guys are working on. Paxton has only made one mistake tonight, which one can be forgiven for after not pitching in two years. -
That seems about right. I could see a Pivetta trade, but I think it's a little premature. It would be a bad look if he pitched well somewhere else, not that he's going to be an ace he's Nick Pivetta, and teams know what they're getting. He will have a nice consistent run of mediocracy at some point this season and probably end with a 4.75 ERA. A team with playoff aspirations who are comfortable with the top of their rotation but lacking depth would find value in him; but how is that going to look here if you lose a guy or two to injury? They've already shown they're willing to option Bello once and that surprised me then, it would surprise me even more now if they did it again but that is the life of someone life him at times. But it feels like we're just scratching the surface with him, and once he's more comfortable he will be more consistent. He could be our #2 behind Sale. Bleier is on my list too. I didn't realize Bernardino has options, the dude is 31 years old!!! and has options.
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So Piveta to the pen, who is out in the pen? When Whitlock comes back and Houck goes to the pen who is pushed out of the pen then? (I know some would start Houck and Move G.W. to the pen but I don't think the Sox are going to do that...yet). Could a Braiser DFA actually be in the cards over the next month?
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They were in on him, but a lot of teams were. I really wanted Senga, but I hope they folded to go harder after Yamamoto, who might be better and is 6 years younger.
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https://www.soxprospects.com/transactions.htm https://www.soxprospects.com/org.htm Not entirely sure, but these pages seem to be up to date. My guess is they were one spot short before the transactions of the day went down, so adding 3 subtracting 2 gave them 28.
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Doesn't Bloom get credit for "not trading" them away???
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I’m glad I stuck to my guns on Bello. You could see his potential last night, he’s still very young and learning to pitch but he has that competitive edge you love to see on the mound.
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I understand this point, but when you consider we have no ideal what his medicals look like or could also mean it’s not as serious as an injury that would require TJS. I don’t think you, or anyone else on this board, definitely including me, have the expertise to call it half measures. Most doctors wouldn’t recommend an agressive surgery that wasn’t required. It could be a good sign
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Also it's worth mentioning Story had a less drastic surgery than Tommy JOhn. He didn't have Tommy John.
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It's also worth stating that Tommy John itself does not ADD arm strength. And I've read other reports that the success rate to normal activities is as low as 75-80 percent and not 88-92. IDK maybe they've got better at it. But that's still a majority. The people who GAIN arm strength do so because the rehabilitation strengthens their arm up to it being stronger than before. I'd speculate that the younger and more healthy and fit you are the more likely it's for that to happen as well. Work ethic probably matters as well.
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I'm actually surprised by Bello seeing how some misplays really screwed up his last start.
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exactly.
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SO lets both go do some research and find. Using names one way or the other is 100% meaningless, there are thousands of people who get this surgery every single year. I don't give two hoots about names like Rivera or Story or whoever, I care about the results. Bad example, but I tell it anyways. If you're at the doctor and need surgery that could save you life but might also kill you, would you care more about some celebrity that had it? or what the success rate was from EVERYONE who had it? results matter....not examples.
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Runners are going to adjust how hard they throw depending on the situation. If a second baseman is on the bag trying to turn a double play he's likely throwing as hard as he can or close to it, if he's 1/2 the distance from their throwing to 1st on a routine grounder he's going to take a lot more of his throw than a SS would to 1B because.....physics.
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You're not going to throw as hard as you can at 2nd on a routine play.
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Did Story play 2nd or SS in 2021. WHY would we use the average velo from SS?? apples to apples people. That AND his arm may have been starting to bother him then.
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And what percentage are THOSE players of everyone who has ever had TJS? probably not even .01% that's not a relevant sample size. It also said the success rate goes DOWN after 35. How many guys on that list are over 35? Also some people are just built differently, the fact that you can list 5 guys from the thousands of people who have successful TJS probably does more to make my point than yours. Look, anything can happen, his arm can come back STRONGER, WEAKER, or the Same. Odds are he will be where he was before he got injured, which was about average. If you want to believe otherwise then I say you're just being a pessimist, which is well within your right and a common theme on this board. I expect and hope his arm strength is fine for SS, and I hope the team gets a stopgap in 2024 and puts him back to 2nd too. If he's healthy, I think he will be fine there. He lost arm strength BECAUSE he was injured, it's perfectly reasonable to assume he's fine if recovered. It's ok....it won't hurt to be a little optimistic and think he will be in the majority of people who recover.
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Another tidbit I found interesting is a large majority of those who DID regain their stuff and even lost velocity prior TJS are players older than 35. Trevor Story is 29. Now this is for pitchers, but they've found that TJS adds on average 4 years to their careers.
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Even if he has average arm strength over at SS he'd be fine. Personally, I like him at 2nd.
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The vast majority of pitchers regain their velo, some even get more. Some do get less. Maybe.....we should wait and see and not be so pessimistic. If after all 88-92% of all pitchers return to the same level as play as prior. Some lose velocity so it's entirely possible he does not have the arm strength. But there's little reason to assume that is likely.
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Warning sign? that was average arm strength. And if you're concerned about the drop TO average then the fact that he was injured should spell those fears. It shows us his drop in arm strength was injury related....an injury that surgery is HIGHLY successful for. I'm about 10000000X more concerned with his ability to hit and being rusty after not playing for so long than his arm strength.
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People used to be so frustrated with Erod when he was here, and he was GOOD when he was here, just not great and had a hard time going more than 6. Grass is always greener I suppose. He is off to a good start to be fair.