Hugh2

All those contracts are 1 way players, Ohtani is special. He can literally add the value of two guys, so he's going to get paid close to that.

.....no. But I will anyways. I'm going to say 10/$600. And I think he can be worth it if he stays healthy, I do think at the back end of wherever he signs he will just be playing on one side of the ball. So you might signing Ohtani to pitch for 5-6 years but to hit for 10.

Fair...

Everyone will want to reset under the new CBA.....except maybe the Mets. Even they be reconsidering after this season, which if they are...they're screwed.

People keep on talking about these returns in the context of "well you'd have to work out an extension" A. that extension is real money, which Ohtani may be worth, But you may also be spending money to replace the likes of Bello/Mayer+++ B. I don't think he's going to sign an extension, and I think teams now this, which greatly reduces the value of Ohtani. No matter how good he is, and I realize you can argue that right now he's the greatest player ever but that makes him worth a lot not worth unlimited resources. There's a dollar value on what a rental is worth and he's still just a rental. I listened to WEEI over a week ago and the literally were advocating trading Mayer/Bello/Casas for him. That's just beyond dumb. If teams know this, the price for Ohtani is going to be a lot less than we think. It's still going to be high because it's FREAKING OHTANI, but it's not going to be an arm and a leg....just an arm.

This is why I love my idea of going out and buying an ACE in 2024 to lead this young team and hope that Mayer/Antony/Bello/Casas and others stabilize a young core and you still have a decent farm in tact. Very LAD like.

anything is controversial. I suppose the end all be all of evaluating pitching development is when they make it to the bigs, I won't disagree with that but I don't fully endorse that either. Let me provide an analogy, lets say you weigh 280 lbs, and you want to get down to your highschool wrestling weigh of 160. Lets say after 2 years you're down to 195, about 15% body fat, very close to you goal but not there yet. You didn't hit your goal, but you're well on your way, so it's fair to say that you made some real changes in your life with positive outcomes. As Moon pointed out, Drohans last few starts have been much better. We've all seen how a few bad performances can skew numbers in a SSS, also, we never know what a guy is working on. A team can be telling him to throw a certain pitch more even in counts he wouldn't normally use it in. There's a lot more to look at than just results. Personally, I'm not terribly high on Droha, I'm more high on Perales because I have an aversion to risk when it comes to prospects. I'll bet on upside anyday of the week, and he just might have the best upside of anyone in our system. The nature of those guys is their value is always going to be very low until the reach the upper minors, as a matter of fact if you look at all the trades in baseball the last few years you've seen this seismic shift to such players. Team, more and more, want talent that is close to MLB ready, devaluing guys like Perales. I'm not opposed to trading him in the right deal, but to me, you trade to add to a good team to build sustainability, not to shoot for the moon one or two seasons. Because if you do the later, and you don't win a world series, then we are right back to 2020 again. I don't want to be there. I'd be more open to trading position player prospects, because we have more depth there. Also, I try to weigh every way to build an MLB roster. TRADES/DEVELOP YOUR OWN GUYS/FREE AGENT SIGNINGS. I believe there is a time and place for all three of those. It makes sense to throw out the $300 million dollar contract some years while other years it does not. Same thing with trades. So when you've built the farm system back up to good (but not great) and the team has a nice core coming up but isn't quite that good yet (we have a winning record) selling off your chips seems like blowing your load to soon. But that's not my main motivator for these feelings. It's the fact that next years free agent class strength is what our weakness is. So this goes back to the timing of everything. That timing also coincides with a year in which the Sox just reset the luxury tax. It makes all the sense in the world (to me), to sign one or two of Ohtani/Yama/Urias/Gioloto/Nola. Those guys only cost you money, similar to money you'd have to give to any guy taking an extension and costs you zero prospects. I don't disagree with your logic overall, it's just a strategy I would personally not employ over here on my armchair.

If we trade Devers/Mayer/Casas/Bello/Anthony/Verdugo/Wong/Houck/Whitlock/Duran/Whitlock that should be enough to outbid everyone else.

Prospectus may be slipping, I'm not sure they have the same cred they once had. They talk about Mayer possibly having to move off of shorts stop and Yorke being a plus defender at 2nd. It's literally the opposite with both those guys. Anthony has all the tools and the results of a guy who could be a top 10 prospect when he's in AA still doing all this next year, it feels premature. Perhaps they will be proven right but there are dozenz of guys out there that fit the bill as Roman too. Still, it's nice to see 2 prospects in the top 10. haha

Insert many times over clapping emoji

Future rosters assume guys under control. It can’t factor in future trades, free agent signings, or future draft picks.

We should just trade him then, and Perales. Let’s just trade all our pitchers, because we’re not going to draft them so f*** it. Let the short stops pitch. In all seriousness, I didn’t realize he had that many starts, I always thought they moved him up a little too quickly. Still, I don’t think you can count him out just yet. I don’t think he’s more than a Chris Murphy toe anyways. We shall see

I don’t think it’s fair to judge a guy who just got promoted and doesn’t immediately light the world on fire. If he’s still struggling after 5-6 starts I’d be worried

They’ve saved 449,100 so far

Sox have signed their 6th 7th and 9th round picks

But, did they have a top farm system? Or did they trade all their young guys away?

It certainly does create a perplexing situation. No one likes a quitter and fans always want a winner, I could get on board with the ideal of ownership actually followed through on going big next year and added viable pieces. It’s also the classic instant gratification vs. long term reward dilemma. Which is an argument I’d normally make, however it gets tougher to make that argument if you finish in last place 3 out of 4 years.

Why care about developing pitching when you can just trade your assets for pitching

It has been very good, which is why I’m more confident they won’t trade for an ACE this deadline.

I like the shorter window.

My draft report card Red Sox A+++++++++ Everyone else F-

Awesome lets trade him.

Ok fine BUT why spend all those assets just to pay the guy money, when you have a ton of top pitching talent on the free agent market you can just give the money too next year? I don't like it.

This is true, but they've also been operating under their plan of building sustainable success. Criticize the execution and the results but they've been trying to do just that. Build up the farm and add short-term pieces to control the finances. If they believe in this young core, and they believe their improved farm is ready to start helping in the coming years then it isn't outside that plan to switch gears and add that piece this offseason. The Sox are notorious for switching gears every several years. That directive comes from Henry, not Bloom, in the end he can tell Bloom what to do, maybe not specifically but he does. Maybe Bloom isn't that guy, then Henry fires him and brings someone in who will. But If I was a betting man, I'd be willing to wager the Sox go out and buy an ACE this offseason.

It’s like having the money to buy a brand new car but spending all of it decking out your 300k 1991 Honda accord