Nick
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Everything posted by Nick
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I'm not sure in 2 years, there will be very many $30M contracts being handed out.....I just don't.
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Exactly.....sometimes we'll have to take a risk. Obviously we all want to make decision based on 'no brainer' scenario. But that may not be available. For example, it's obvious that Sox want to fill 1B with Travis. That's why they picked up Moreland on 1 year deal. There's only so much money to go around. But there's no guaranty Travis will be up to task. We hope, but it's not a sure thing. I would bet that Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts will not be teammates in 2021. We'll have to pick and choose.
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I'd say Kelly, Thornburg and C Smith can become a formidable bullpen arms, or not. I'm anxious to see if Kelly can continue his late season success. Apparently he 'developed' a slider to go with his fastball and curve in September. Control/location is his achilles heel. Never seen C Smith and Thornburg. I'm looking foward to it.
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Apparently Hector Mendoza from Cuba becomes available as soon as he turns 23, thus avoiding the international amateur draft. Plus the money won't count towards hard cap. We have the money...$370M in revenue. It's only money.
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Maybe they changed it....it shows him at $13.75M. $110M/8 yrs.
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I agree......I'd almost hand him a blank check. He's our franchise player. I'd want him and Sale. It really wouldn't be a bad thing for Price to opt out but I doubt that's happening unless he's miserable playing for the Sox. I only say that because Porcello and Sale are much younger. I could live with Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright with Groome waiting in the wings in four years.
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I hope you are right....I've ignored Young, Moreland and Kimbrel thinking their salaries will get eaten up by arbitration raises, etc. Reality is that some of our younger kids will have to come through and/or we will just have to live with unproductive spot or two. Can't have it all. But keeping Price, Porcello and Sale to anchor our starting rotation will go long ways from us finishing dead last.
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Not entirey true....Chris Sale is calculated at $6.5M even though his actual salary is $12M for 2016......but let's not argue over couple of millions...I've always trusted your numbers...better than anyone else here.
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I'm happy with the so called 3 year window to chase the championship or two. Year 4 and beyond...still doable... my premise is that $30M is the payroll ceiling due to luxury tax restrictions. If you add Porcello, Sale, Pablo (gone), Hanley (gone) and Xander's estimated arb 3 salary, you get to approximately $90M. That should be enough to sign Pocello, Sale and Xander. (Or we can forgo one of them and save it for Betts a year later). This assumes Devers and Shaw are full time at corner infield positions. Maybe Dalbec is in the mix. Maybe Chatam takes great strides at SS. (part with Xander). Or maybe Groome/E Rod is ready to become part of the Big 3 and we part with either Sale or Porcello. I think we can keep this train going. I bet next CBA won't be owner friendly as this one. Luxury tax threadhhold GOT to be higher.
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cot's have it at $179M but close enough. I agree with you that DD wants the flexibility to add based on injury/upgrade at mid year. Perhaps if something is available on the cheap, he'll jump at it before the trade deadline. Meanwhile we reset the penalty % back to 0.
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Done, thanks
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-evolving-luxury-tax/ This article is from 2015 but an interesting read. 1. Sox revenue is estimated at around $370M. Revenue has risen 40% vs 10% increase in payroll since 2004. Not feeling sorry for John. 2. I have no idea why the players agreed to the new CBA. Hell, none of us could have done a worse job negotiating. 3. If the Yankees are unwilling to splurge, what will be the driver to higher salaries?
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Need a definitive answer on luxury tax computation... I'm struggling with wording 'based on 40 man roster at year end". I realize that we are accountable for pro rated portion of players traded FOR. To me, if a player is traded 'out' of Sox, his salary should not count. Otherwise your year end computation is NOT based on your 40 man roster, but rather 41. Cut to the chase. Was any part of Lester's salary counted towards Sox's competitive balance calculation when he was traded to the A's? No guesses please.
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I'm a firm believer in paying top money for top players. I had issues with Sox for signing players on the cheap. Justification was that well it was only a one year deal. The $9.5M throw way on Masterson was perfect example. Why not spend $10M more and get something closer to a sure thing. It's been rehashed here several times. We used to always go for the fence, or buying a lottery ticket is more like it. An expensive ticket.
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Beginning with 1991 season, Athlanta Braves won the division 14 out of 15 seasons, clearly a remarkable feat. But they only won 1 world series. Many think the cost of Sale'a trade was excessive. Essentially we completed the gutting of our farm system. My personal preference is to go for it. In the end, only the championships matter. My guess is DD will add another piece after the 2017 season when the tax penalty is reset for the Sox. He will do everything in his power to win the big one.
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My head is spinning from BC/DD debate. Why don't we just give all the credit to Theo and be done with it? It's because of Pablo signing and lack of developing starting pitching (and had to spend $31M on Price) that prevented Sox from signing Encarnacion. For those complaining about trading away Lackey, he was not going to play for Boston at league minimum. Not sure why we keep rehashing that history. Sure we could've played chicken and forced him to retire but not sure what that would have accomplished. (OK we wouldn't be paying Craig, you got me). With $200M at our disposal, there's no reason why we shouldn't be competing for playoffs every year.
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Moon, new CBA runs through 2021, meaning Xander, Betts and Bradley will turn FA before current CBA expires. Looking at what happened to some of big name FA this year, I'm wondering if the players are misguided thinking there's a huge pay day for them. I just can't see very many $30M contracts waiting for them. It maybe that if we win it all in 2017, 'selection/eilimination process may start'. I'm hoping for Pablo resurgence and then executing a trade for him. We need Devers/Shaws and their mlb minimum wage to help with our finances. Again, it's not so much the money, it's the non monetary penalties in the new CBA that will bind the Sox adhering to competitive balance limits.
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$9.5M plus incentives was just too much.......
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I'm a Swihart fan....but Why in the hell would he be in contention to catch if he was unsuitable last year? He comes back to play left field. What the f***? Love the Sox but sometime we look like f***ing clowns. What, his defense got better through osmosis while recovering from his injury? IF DD wants Swhihart to be a catcher, then he belongs in the minors to horn his craft. WTF john.?
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But you also have a shot at having him play 15 years for Sox
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Bottom line is if our bullpen is up to the task, we will be very good. Our starting pitching will be good, providing a top 5 quality starts. Our defense will be improved and further limit runs given up. Offense will score enough runs despite losing Ortiz.
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Posters keep complaining about our OF depth.....question what major league team has better 4 outfielders? for negative nannies, do you go to 6 deep, in an emergency don't you think we'll either acquire an OF or move Swihart there? If you are talking about the farm system then I agree......also there are many here that thought Holt could start in LF.
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His favorite park is in Baltimore.
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NO funcking way.....move on. He was non factor for Sox.
