Nick
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ESPN's Top 20 Prospects (Keith Law)....Sox come in at #1, #11 and #20, traded away #7 and #17 1.Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox 2.Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves 3.Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets 4.Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees 5.J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies 6.Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers 7.Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox 8.Victor Robles, CF, Washington Nationals 9.Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates 10.Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals 11.Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox 12.Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs 13.Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox 14.Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates 15.Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds 16.Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates 17.Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox 18.Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Guardians 19.Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies 20.Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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there you have it....Porcello, Sale in top 10. Price at #13, locked up for 6 more yrs (I'd say 90% chance he stays). 4 position players in top 30. I don't know how we'll do it, but keep them all. Excited to see what we got in Thornburg.
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I think what all this says is WE ARE STACKED RIGHT NOW. Better take advantage of it.
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Oh, I get it. But we'll have to make choices as to who stays and who goes. I consider SS to be a defensive position first. But thats' just me. Maybe we can find a way to sign all five, Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts. That would make me do back flips. I would venture to guess majority of people here would take Xander over signing Bradley Jr if it comes to that. But I like having an elite outfield. I think Porcello/Sale is a must. I like having strong starting rotation.
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Now if he goes out and smacks 30 home runs.....but he'll never be more than a serviceable shortstop defensively. JBJ is an elite center fielder who has shown power stroke....and I don't think he'll cost us $30M.....
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This is why I place Xander my #5 pick among Porcello, Sale, Betts and Bradley Jr......Boras will be looking for $30M for Xander. He's not worth that much.
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Cot's has us under the limit by $16.5M now. It's very possible any pick up at trade deadline will only cost us for 2017. Thus we'll have close to $30M to pay for arbitration raises. We can have the team come back in tact, except for the 3 free agents. The limit will increase by $9M in 2019. I would hope an internal candidate can fill the closer role by then and save the $12M paid to Kimbrel the previous year. First critical decision maybe what to do with Pom? I wouldn't be quick to dismiss him, Porcello/Sale FA looms in a year along with Xander.
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If we can win it all in 2017, then that's a game changer. We may then sit back and look long term.....or not.
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Exactly....and let's not forget, DD could NOT afford to PUSSYFOOT around at the time. Coming off 2 last place finishes, he was not going to let the details derail him. It was his MUST GET.
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I'm not sure in 2 years, there will be very many $30M contracts being handed out.....I just don't.
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Exactly.....sometimes we'll have to take a risk. Obviously we all want to make decision based on 'no brainer' scenario. But that may not be available. For example, it's obvious that Sox want to fill 1B with Travis. That's why they picked up Moreland on 1 year deal. There's only so much money to go around. But there's no guaranty Travis will be up to task. We hope, but it's not a sure thing. I would bet that Sale, Porcello, Xander, Bradley Jr and Betts will not be teammates in 2021. We'll have to pick and choose.
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I'd say Kelly, Thornburg and C Smith can become a formidable bullpen arms, or not. I'm anxious to see if Kelly can continue his late season success. Apparently he 'developed' a slider to go with his fastball and curve in September. Control/location is his achilles heel. Never seen C Smith and Thornburg. I'm looking foward to it.
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Apparently Hector Mendoza from Cuba becomes available as soon as he turns 23, thus avoiding the international amateur draft. Plus the money won't count towards hard cap. We have the money...$370M in revenue. It's only money.
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Maybe they changed it....it shows him at $13.75M. $110M/8 yrs.
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I agree......I'd almost hand him a blank check. He's our franchise player. I'd want him and Sale. It really wouldn't be a bad thing for Price to opt out but I doubt that's happening unless he's miserable playing for the Sox. I only say that because Porcello and Sale are much younger. I could live with Sale, Porcello, Pomeranz, E Rod and Wright with Groome waiting in the wings in four years.
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I hope you are right....I've ignored Young, Moreland and Kimbrel thinking their salaries will get eaten up by arbitration raises, etc. Reality is that some of our younger kids will have to come through and/or we will just have to live with unproductive spot or two. Can't have it all. But keeping Price, Porcello and Sale to anchor our starting rotation will go long ways from us finishing dead last.
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Not entirey true....Chris Sale is calculated at $6.5M even though his actual salary is $12M for 2016......but let's not argue over couple of millions...I've always trusted your numbers...better than anyone else here.
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I'm happy with the so called 3 year window to chase the championship or two. Year 4 and beyond...still doable... my premise is that $30M is the payroll ceiling due to luxury tax restrictions. If you add Porcello, Sale, Pablo (gone), Hanley (gone) and Xander's estimated arb 3 salary, you get to approximately $90M. That should be enough to sign Pocello, Sale and Xander. (Or we can forgo one of them and save it for Betts a year later). This assumes Devers and Shaw are full time at corner infield positions. Maybe Dalbec is in the mix. Maybe Chatam takes great strides at SS. (part with Xander). Or maybe Groome/E Rod is ready to become part of the Big 3 and we part with either Sale or Porcello. I think we can keep this train going. I bet next CBA won't be owner friendly as this one. Luxury tax threadhhold GOT to be higher.
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cot's have it at $179M but close enough. I agree with you that DD wants the flexibility to add based on injury/upgrade at mid year. Perhaps if something is available on the cheap, he'll jump at it before the trade deadline. Meanwhile we reset the penalty % back to 0.
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Done, thanks
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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlbs-evolving-luxury-tax/ This article is from 2015 but an interesting read. 1. Sox revenue is estimated at around $370M. Revenue has risen 40% vs 10% increase in payroll since 2004. Not feeling sorry for John. 2. I have no idea why the players agreed to the new CBA. Hell, none of us could have done a worse job negotiating. 3. If the Yankees are unwilling to splurge, what will be the driver to higher salaries?
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Need a definitive answer on luxury tax computation... I'm struggling with wording 'based on 40 man roster at year end". I realize that we are accountable for pro rated portion of players traded FOR. To me, if a player is traded 'out' of Sox, his salary should not count. Otherwise your year end computation is NOT based on your 40 man roster, but rather 41. Cut to the chase. Was any part of Lester's salary counted towards Sox's competitive balance calculation when he was traded to the A's? No guesses please.
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I'm a firm believer in paying top money for top players. I had issues with Sox for signing players on the cheap. Justification was that well it was only a one year deal. The $9.5M throw way on Masterson was perfect example. Why not spend $10M more and get something closer to a sure thing. It's been rehashed here several times. We used to always go for the fence, or buying a lottery ticket is more like it. An expensive ticket.
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Beginning with 1991 season, Athlanta Braves won the division 14 out of 15 seasons, clearly a remarkable feat. But they only won 1 world series. Many think the cost of Sale'a trade was excessive. Essentially we completed the gutting of our farm system. My personal preference is to go for it. In the end, only the championships matter. My guess is DD will add another piece after the 2017 season when the tax penalty is reset for the Sox. He will do everything in his power to win the big one.
