Nick

2019 soft cap after taking out player benefit is $193M. Let's make the numbers easier by saying each team can spend $200M on 25 players or $4M per man. The goal is to win. That's what makes fans happy. I'm sorry but I don't care how good Trout is. I'm not going to watch him play if he's on a losing team year after year. I will always watch winning Red Sox team. I will not watch losing Sox team with Betts on it. If Betts eats up too much of that $200M payroll, Sox will not win. Baseball is still a team sports.

I guess the thinking is 50% penalty of $20M based on our mythical budget of $40M plus the limit is just is too rich for Henry as opposed to 20% penalty of $8M. The delta is only $12M which may mean nothing to Henry.

Closer signing in terms of amount and years will say awful lot about Sox plans for reset.

5 more years at $31M AAV.....it could get ugly.

Few Random Thoughts This was one of most enjoyable Red Sox team. Power does matter, you can't convince me otherwise. DD will do his best to put together best team on paper. He will not trade any significant pieces this year. It's just silly. It's more likely that we'll extend some of our players. I know what a 'cliff' looks like. That was E Rod's rookie year. Call me a homer but I only watched games when he started. A 'cliff' is when majority of fans decide they have better things to do in life than to spend 3 1/2 hours watching the Sox get pummeled. Happy New Year everyone.

Yep, if true, all we have to do to afford Betts is get rid of Vaz' $4M. Hello? Is anyone home?

I get that Moon. But how do we reset while keeping Sale, JD along with Betts, JBJ, Beni, Devers, as outlined above. I need to see the numbers from you. Show me how you would get to $208M less $15M in benefits. Are you willing to let Sale and JD go?

The topic was resetting. Unless you're willing to tell me how to get to $208M less $15M for benefits, or $193M, then there's nothing to talk about. Now it's my hope that we simply keep the payroll at $248M. Then many things are possible.

Who the f*** wrote THAT? (nice find, Moon) I guess it just goes to show you, if we go way south this year, this team will be taken apart.

I liked your analysis of prioritizing current Sox players as they become FA. I have as much fascination with Sale as I do with Betts. Here we have a player that clearly wants to be with Red Sox. I think he'll take an extension of say 6 year, $180M. I simply love his competitiveness on the mound. We gave up a lot for his three years of service, albeit team friendly contract. I would love to keep Sale and JD Martinez and reset, if that's possible. In reality, we have only 4 contracts for 2020. Price ($31M), Eovaldi ($17M), Pedroia ($13.75M) and Vaz ($4.52M) for total of $66.27M. 3 major arbitration players are Betts (say $22M), JBJ (say $11M) and E Rod ($8.50M). That brings total to 7 players at $108M. Add Sale at $30M and JD at $25M (front loaded) and now we have $163M committed to 9 players. Throw in $15M for benefits, with a luxury tax line of $208M, we have $30M to cover the cost of 31 roster players. Gone are Xander, Pearce, Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg, Holt. You'll have 15 players making league minimum of $550K. Say that's $8M. You now have $22M for Beni, Devers, Barnes, Brasier,.....basically 16 players for $22M, which is doable. The team would still be competitive 2020. SP Price, Sale, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector BP Brasier, Barnes, etc C Vaz 1B Chavis 2B Pedroia SS Lin 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH Martinez You can trade Vaz for cheaper option. Delta for Betts is $13M more to get to magic $35M, going from arbitration #3 to FA. We can blow through the budget for 2021 at 20% penalty and 2022 at 30% penalty. At the conclusion of 2022, Price's $31M will come off the books along with Pedey's $13.75M, which will have come off year earlier. Again, goal is to win the world series. Build a team around Beni, Betts, Devers, JBJ and Martinez. Throw in Price, Eovaldi, Sale and E Rod. Other teams have much less.

Only way to beat luxury tax issue is to have more, talented team controlled players. With Sale and Porcello in their last year and Cora's desire to rest our starters through the year, will someone from the farm emerge as a possible 2020 starter? Will Chavis or someone else emerge to take over the 1B position? I could see a scenario if JD leaves, Pearce becomes a DH candidate and fill in for other positions as well. (assuming he has a stellar year) Can Lin fill in for Xander or Pedey if one does not return in 2020? To me we have plethora of young arms that can fill in in the pen. Try them all. Again, what are we afraid of? One candidate may emerge.

Re-setting will require intensive planning. It will involve not only pending free agents but also players currently under team control. How expensive will Beni be as he gets into arbitration years? What about Devers? Do we trade good young players for good younger players in order to extend the team control years? Is there a player out there that will be Beni in two years? Can we acquire two of those for real Beni? If we are going to reset after 2019, we should trade Betts for couple of quality team controlled talent. You can always offer Betts 10 year, $350M contract. He'll be back if tha's the best deal. If that's not the best deal, then we won't sign him anyway. Maybe we should hire someone from Tampa Bay Rays that knows something about 'churning' players.

Big part of appeal about Betts is his athleticism to go along with his baseball skills. I seriously doubt in 7 years, he'll be making the same type of running catches nor running the bases with abandonment as he's doing now. His power will certainly decline. He is NOT going to repeat last year's performance year after year. I would agree Betts is worth $35M per year if he repeats last year's numbers for next ten years. I just don't think he can do it.

Well, I'm big enough to admit I was one of those. I thought he'd hit 60 home runs in Fenway!. We got JD Martinez instead and I couldn't be any happier. Good or bad, JD's contract is reasonable in money and length. DD deserves an A for that signing.

Strictly speaking from business standpoint, any doubt we did the right thing with Hanley? His $22M would have been painful in 2019. His salary takes care of Pearce, Moreland and Nunez with some money leftover.

Only 5 teams have players with AAV of $20M plus. Angels Trout, Pujols, Upton $70M Cubs Lester, Heyward, Darvish $70M Nationals Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin $78M Red Sox Price, JD, Porcello $73.6M Yankees Stanton, Tanaka, Jacoby $69M Stanton's contract runs for another 9 years! It's just hard for me to think they would give out a 10 year deal to Machado. That just seems insane. Only 5 players have AAV over $30M. Will it be 7 after Harper/Machado signings? Red Sox may lose 2 to FA next winter. Anything can happen with injuries and such, but we're down to 4 years left with Price.

Price had one opt out and he declined. He's a Sox for next 4 years. His 4 years will run concurrently with Eovaldi's. E Rod has 3 years of arbitration remaining so he's under team control for next 3 years.

DD is that trophy wife. She'll spend money sure but what ever she buys will be 'chic'.

I can just hear the Yankee brain trust telling each other "had it not for that 4 game sweep", we'd won the division and probably the world series.". Now that would be sweet. We won despite wobbly performance from Kimbrel and less than average output from Betts and JD Martinez. Now think about THAT.

I completely understand where you are coming from. It's risky to give out 6 year contract to a closer. Period.

I suggested the home team discount. Perhaps what needs to happen is to implement penalties for teams not spending minimum CB payroll. Make the 'floor' relative to the 'ceiling' as it exists. Say the gap should be $100M. So for 2019, each team must spend at least $108M. For 2018, 5 teams had payroll of less than $100M.

Bigger question is is it better for baseball not to give Boston opportunity to sign say Kimbrel without heavily penalizing the team? What about from players' perspective? I have a pretty good idea where Borass thinks. What the owners have done is to artificially create a barrier to impede payroll implosion. No doubt that the players union will take a hard stance against some of these penalties in next CBA. THIS IS WHERE I SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE A DISCOUNT FOR HOMEGROWN TALENT. Allow a home team to give whatever contract they want to a home grown talent without facing extreme penalty. Idea is to come up with a maxium amount charged against CB Payroll for player such as Betts. $25M seems to be the right amount for now. Thus, each player will have a desinated 'home' team. This is one time designation and can not be changed. Whatever team the player is playing for under which he becomes eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration will be his HOME team. Betts, Beni, Devers all would have Boston Red Sox as the home team. Under this scenario, Sox can sign Betts to $35M AAV with $25M artifical payroll when computing the luxury tax penalty. It's a win win for all. I think it's a brilliant idea. (lol)

The answer is no. Kimbrel will want 4 years at minimum and we can't tie up $15M+ for a closer who appears to be on decline.

Very good point, Moon. Eovaldi is signed for 4 years with NO OPT out. I have not read his contract and therefore I am not aware of performance bonuses. And also keep in mind that his AAV and cash outlay is the same. What I'm getting at is this. I get it that he wants to start. However, I feel comfortable in saying that he will close if he's asked. What the hell does it matter financially either way, start or close?. He's paid the same amount. He's at least three years away from free agency at the close of 2019 season. He has plenty of time to build up "starter money"over the remaining three years of his contract. I doubt it will come to this. I think DD will sign a closer. But Eovaldi will be asked to close if everything falls apart in first half of 2019. And if he does close, it will only be until summer trade deadline when DD will trade for a closer. Who knows, hell it may be Price who will be asked to close in an emergency. For some guys on this team, (I'm thinking someone like Pedroia), winning is all that matters. I put Eovaldi and Price in that same category. They all have long term contracts. They're playing to win. Not that Porcello and Sale won't give 100%, they are pitching for next contract. This is their last year.

Let's see what we have in Barnes and Brasier. 'Save' stat is overrated. There are too many gratuitous saves given out.