Nick
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Everything posted by Nick
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If Beni leads off, do we move off JBJ from 9th?
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Yep, no brainer. Looks like we're have another year to stock up and improve our farm system. It would be nice to have Moncada back in light of uncertainty at 2B. But then, no Sale.
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Trading JBJ would be a big news to Cora. He thinks JBJ will have a break out year. (my interpretation of Cora's comments about JBJ)
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Apparently they will take the best deal if one is offered.
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I don't believe Sox are as fickle as everyone thinks. Year after signing Vaz to a long term extension, it is hard for me to believe they've already given up on him.
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Per DD (we should always pay attention to what he says) "That changes, because some of our conversations with our own internal players change, too. But we're cognizant of a couple of really important guys that we want to keep for the long-term that are going to be free agents within the next year or two. That is in the back of our mind." Betts is one. Who is the other guy? Is it Sale or is it JD Martinez?
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Marlins definitely had no intention of hanging on to Stanton. His contract was favorable to cash rich team such as the Yankees to acquire him.
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Well, you're not a typical Yankee fan. I think you are astute, level headed baseball fan. I think everyone here wished all Yankee fans had your disposition.
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There's a reason why it's called the Competitive Balance Tax. It's not good for any team to win say 5 straight world series. Major league baseball wants all 30 teams to have some success. It goes without saying that as teams succeed, their players will demand better contract, better pay. This is why almost every SUCCESSFUL team will ultimately face the 'cliff'. Yankee fans can be smug right now but their 'cliff' will come also. To think it won't happen to them because they are SO MUCH SMARTER than rest of the league is so typical of Yankee fans.
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Looking at our window. SP Price 2019-2020-2021-2022 SP Eovaldi 2019-2020-2021-2022 SP E Rod 2019-2020-2021 SP Sale 2019 SP Porcello 2019 SP Wright 2019-2020 SP Johnson 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 SP Hector 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 C Vazquez 2019-2020-2021 1B Platoon 2019 2B Pedroia 2019-2020-2021 3B Devers 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 SS Xander 2019 LF Beni 2019-2020-2021-2022 CF JBJ 2019-2020 RF Betts 2019-2020 DH Martinez 2019 Closer RP Brasier 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023 RP Barnes 2019-2020-2021 RP Workman 2019-2020 RP Poyner 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023-2024 RP Scott 2019-2020-2021-2022-2023
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It sucks to think one of us will be in a play-in game.
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https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/next-offseasons-uncomfortable-reality-red-sox Pretty good read from WEEI. Let's just enjoy 2019 season. I think Rob visits this site.
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No issues for 2019 but big problems on the horizon after 2019. Xander, Sale, Porcello and JD Martinez will require long term contracts. That will hinder 're-set' for 2020 and still maintain room for Betts and JBJ. It definitely will be the proverbial threading the needle to keep the band together.
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It's the same logic as when my wife says I saved YOU 50% on these sales items. I saved over $500. I should go spend more money so I can save you some more, HONEY. Sure.
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Sometimes you have to recognize a star in making at the beginning of his climb. There's a good chance that's where Eovaldi is in his ascension. We maybe getting his best 4 years out of this contract. Combine that with the fact that we may finally see a complete year out of E Rod and I'm excited about our prospects for 2019. If this was at a poker table, I'm playing with the 'house' money right now.
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Your math is wrong below $203.6 Sub total....203.6+18.5+4.4+14.5 = $241 not $251 it's ok to make a mistake or two from time to time, Moon. That's nothing compared to, say, SIGINING PABLO SANDOVAL for $95M. I saw the $18.5M and I couldn't help it. And we're worried about Price's contract?
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We were in NO POSITION to argue about the money or length at the time. You're the new GM on the heels of 2 dead last place finishes. I repeat, 2 freakin' last place finishes. Henry tells you to do something about it. And you're going to argue about the amount of money for best available pitcher? We're currently in the midst of 'happy times' for Sox Nation. 3 consecutive division titles and 1 World Series ring. It was all made possible by signing Price as DD put his signature on the team. It's silly to go back and re-write history. It was ABSOLUTELY the right thing to do AT THE TIME. I still don't see a viable starting pitcher from our farm on the horizon.
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Point 1. Good to have Eovaldi for 2019 as opposed to relying on Wright, Johnson and Hector. My guess is we will still need the latter three to fill in for injuries and heavy schedule. Also don't forget the fatigue factor early in the year. Point 2. There's a good possibility that Eovaldi's career in on the upswing. Don't you think it's possible that he can duplicate or exceed Porcello?I certainly believe that's what DD, Cora and others are thinking. From where I sit, we simply extended Porcello for three years, we are paying $5M less and for 2019 we signed his twin. I just don't see any downside.
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Going over $40M in 2019 won't be as bad as in 2020 because the penalty over the initial cutoff is 30% in 2019 versus 50% for 2020. Another way to look at is we save $8M in 2019 over 2020 because of second time offender status in 2019 versus third time offender status in 2020.
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Good points on Eovaldi. We play each other, what, 19 times? You do have to think about how to beat your nemesis.
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Winning the Division won't be easy but having Eovaldi certainly made our chances better. We don't have to take back seat to anyone. Not saying we'll win but we will be very formidable. Health is the key. Dustin back 100%. E Rod staying healthy all year. Sale returning to form all year. Eovaldi piching the way he did in October. Full year of Pearce. Steady improvement from Devers. Sox have the horses. It's now up to the players.
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Per WEEI Make no mistake out it, signing Eovaldi to this sort of deal is a risk. It always is. But considering what the Red Sox know about the 28-year-old, how Patrick Corbin's recent six-year contract reminded us all of the expense that comes with trying to garner premier starting pitching talent, and the uncertainty that will be two-thirds of the Sox' starting rotation after 2019 thanks to the contracts of Sale and Rick Porcello, this one makes sense. Agian, hedging against Sale/Porcello not returning for myriads of reasons.
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I'm going to repeat myself but what if we reset in 2020? We let both Sale and Porcello go along with Pearce, Moreland, Holt, Wright, and hope JD opts out. Stay with me here. We re-sign Xander to long term contract. We trade away Betts and his $20M anticipated salary for 2019 for younger pieces. Trade him to a team that's an outfielder away from winning it all. We do this with the thought of overpaying Betts for 2021. Hell give him $350M deal. I estimate our CB Payroll going into 2021 to be around $170 with just one signing, Xander. Our budget is $250M for 2021. We'll have approximately $80M to sign Betts, JBJ (incremental pay raise) and a top line starting pitcher. We start over and have a three year window. Rinse and wash. For 2021 SP Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, $25M Man, ????? LineUp Betts, Beni, Xander, Devers, Chavis, Pedroia (DH), Lin, Vaz, JBJ
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We're at $240M in CB Payroll. Second penalty phase ends at $246M. We'll have $81M coming off the books between Pablo, Xander, Sale, Porcello, Moreland, Pearce and Nunez. Say no one comes back. Our CB payroll is $165M with following line-up. Arbitration raises will be due to Betts, JBJ, E Rod and others. Say $20M. Our CB Payroll is now around $185M. SP Price, Eovaldi, E Rod, Wright, Johnson, Hector. Bullpen...pretty much same as it is today. C Vaz 1B Chavis 2B Dustin SS Lin 3B Devers LF Beni CF JBJ RF Betts DH JD Assuming reset, we'll have $23M between Sale, Porcello and Xander. I'd say we sign Xander and let everyone else go. If JD opts out, it's possible to re sign Porcello and stay under the cap. Here's a radical idea. Knowing essentially that 2020 is a 'rebuilding' year, would you consider trading Betts for young talent and then turn around and sign him? That would free up another $20M or so.
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Be Happy Moon. This has been a great off season. I want to feel this way next Christmas.
