good summary on Matt Barnes, 2021 version....I posted this on another thread but everyone seems to be here.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/matt-bar...-simple-trick/
Quick Discussion on throwing 1st pitch strike and swinging at 1st pitch strike.
"When batters connect, they do more damage, as evidenced by the wOBAcon column (league average hovers around .370 in most years). That offsets the whiffs and fouls, such that the overall run value is slightly in the hitter’s favor. In other words, if you throw a pitch in the strike zone and the batter swings, you’re losing out on the deal.
That’s only half the equation, though. When batters don’t swing, well, it’s a celebration. The loss in expected production after a first-pitch strike is massive. It works out to roughly four runs per 100 plate appearances, 10 times better for the pitcher than a first pitch swing is bad. Unless batters are swinging over 90% of the time at strikes, the zone is the place to live on first pitches.
Unsurprisingly, batters aren’t swinging over 90% of the time. They’re swinging at 0-0 pitches in the zone 44% of the time so far this year, the highest mark since pitch tracking started in 2008. That development is a step in the right direction on the offensive side, because letting a first pitch strike fly by is disastrous, but hitters would need to swing a lot more before flooding the zone stopped making sense."
In essence the article is saying that unless hitters swing at almost every first pitch strike, advantage goes to pitcher throwing the first pitch strike. Good read.
Any thoughts from posters with pitching knowledge? How far do you go from offensive perspective? Do you chance a pitcher getting through 3 innings on 9 pitches by swinging at every first pitch strike?