I agree that it's always good to temper expectations with young players, but based on what I've seen & read about him, it wouldn't surprise me if he put up big numbers this year.
Supposedly nothing rattles this kid. He was having lunch with Brian Johnson the other day and he knew he'd be facing him the next day. He told Johnson that he was taking him deep, which he did on the first pitch Johnson threw.
Everyone talks about the "swing," but his plate discipline is advanced as well. There will be some adjustments, but I would be disappointed if he only hits 10 to 12 bombs as those projections above indicate. He has a ton of power for a kid his size. We'll see I guess.