harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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If Nathan Eovaldi was worth four years and $68 million then fellow 6-foot-2 righthander Kevin Gausman makes sense at $18.9 million for one year. Eovaldi was one year younger than Gausman's current age when Eovaldi signed the $68 million deal. At the time Eovaldi had posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $94.1 million, in 850 innings. Gausman has posted 15.0 fWAR, valued at $119.2 million in 985 career innings. Eovaldi was coming off a season with an ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111 in 112 innings, including an ERA of 3.33 and ERA+ of 133 in 54 innings with the Red Sox. In the 2018 postseason Eovaldi also posted an ERA of 1.61 in 22 innings. This year Gausman posted an ERA of 3.62 and an ERA+ of 118 in 59.2 innings.
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Perhaps within my lifetime ... or not. In 2021 the Mariners threaten to finish with a better record than the Red Sox for the first time since ... well, since this year.
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Steamer projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.33 in 18 starts covering 103 innings. ZiPS projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.26 in 24 starts covering 152 innings. Marcel projects Chris Sale with a 2021 ERA of 3.96 in an unspecified number of starts covering 75 innings.
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In the past century psychology has evolved from a largely qualitative field to a predominantly quantitative hard science ... perhaps overly so. We need to distinguish seeking quantitative answers from not seeking answers at all.
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With the non-tender of Adam Duvall, Ender Inciarte might be a starting outfielder for Atlanta: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/braves Could the non-tendered Delino DeShields provide similar defense-first production as Inciarte in center field? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/delino-deshields/11379/stats?position=OF
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The Red Sox have kept relievers Matt Barnes ($4.4MM) and Ryan Brasier ($1.25MM) and catcher Kevin Plawecki ($1.6MM), per tweets from Nightengale, Robert Murray of FanSided and Heyman. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/12/players-avoiding-arbitration-12220.html
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On a tangent, recommended is the 2020 book War Fever: Boston, Baseball, and America in the Shadow of the Great War, which follows three German-Americans -- Babe Ruth, the conductor of the Boston Symphony Orchestra and a Harvard-educated lawyer -- through World War I and the Spanish flu epidemic: https://www.publishersweekly.com/978-1-5416-7266-6
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What aboout coupling the one year and $15 million remaining on Oriole righthander Alex Cobb's contract with two years of Trey Mancini, who is projected to earn $4.8 million in 2021 as the leftfielder returns from cancer treatment? Neither Cobb nor Mancini is likely to fall within Baltimore's competitive window. In 2019 Mancini posted a .291/.364/.535/.899 line with 106 runs, 35 home runs and 97 RBI. The cost in trade might not be high as Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus trade values of a negative $11.6 million for Cobb and a positive $14.4 million for Mancini.
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The point is that fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes for Rafael Devers.
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My wife went to high school with that guy, Kevin Mitchell. Not a sports fan, she has no memory of Mitchell but remembers the classmate upon whom the Jeff Spicoli character was based in the film Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Cameron Crowe wrote the book and screenplay after going undercover at the high school. Trivia: Through their age 23 seasons, Rafael Devers has posted a negative 35 Defensive Runs Saved in 3,352.1 innings at third base while Pablo Sandoval had posted a negative 9 DRS in 2,337.2 innings at third base.
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The Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are likely suitors for Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon.
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The Red Sox make a waiver claim and outright Ryan Weber and Matt Hall to Triple A:
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https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-minor-leaguers/
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Red Sox fans might prefer this comp of the debut seasons of Bobby Dalbec and Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis, who the following year was named AL Rookie of the Year: 2019 Lewis 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.888, OPS+ 131, 4.0 BB%, 38.7 K%, 0.5 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR 2020 Dalbec 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152, 10.9 BB%, 42.4 K%, 0.6 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR Lewis and Dalbec are 6-foot-4, righthanded power hitters taken out of college in the 2016 draft. Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $31.3 million to five years of Lewis and $18.2 million to six years of Dalbec, a Seattle native who was born two weeks before Lewis. This poster's reserved 2021 projection for Dalbec mirrors his reserved projection for Lewis going into the 2020 season. The Lewis projection proved wrong and it's hard not to pull for Lewis after watching this 32-minute video about his comeback from injuries:
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FWIW Baseball Trade Values gives Michael Chavis a generous median surplus value of $7.5million (perhaps incorrectly listing Chavis with four years of team control when Chavis has just one year and 164 days of MLB service, making him a likely Super Two next offseason if he plays the entire 2021 season at the MLB level). https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/7875/ As a point of reference, Baseball Trade Values assigns a median surplus value of $4.0 million to Seattle infielder Shed Long, who was born the same month as Chavis and who has five years of team control. Both players bombed this year after each posted 0.7 fWAR in impressive 2019 debuts, Chavis in 95 games and Long in 42 games. This year Chavis posted a negative 0.7 fWAR in 42 games and Long 0.0 fWAR in 34 games. Steamer and ZiPS project Chavis with 2021 WAR of 0.3 in 120 games and 0.9 in 112 games while projecting Long with 0.5 in 57 games and 0.3 in 107 games. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/the-player-plan-which-shed-long-jr-will-the-mariners-see-in-2021/#comments
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/11/19/21574970/boston-red-sox-offseason-news-michael-gettys-contract-enmanuel-de-jesus FanGraphs wrote in April: "Gettys’ tools are such that he might be Drew Stubbs, with plus power, a 70 arm and speed, but a hit tool that might not be playable in any capacity." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-53-prospects-san-diego-padres/
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In his roundup of non-tender candidates, FanGraphs columnist Eric Longenhagen predicts that the Red Sox will cut loose Matt Barnes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/presenting-a-mock-non-tenderizing/ The column, posted Friday, listed Baltimore first baseman Renato Nunez as an unlikely non-tender. Later Friday the Orioles designated Nunez for assignment.
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According to MLB Trade Rumors, no team in the AL East has an open slot on a 40-man roster: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/40-man-roster-roundup.html NL East teams combine for 15 open roster slots and the AL West 11 open roster slots.
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Red Sox make decisions: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/red-sox-dfa-ryan-weber-matt-hall-kyle-hart.html
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The Red Sox have more than six unprotected names but only six players are ranked among the club's Top 30 prospects at MLB Pipeline.
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MLB.com lists the Rule 5 eligible players from each club's Top 30 prospect list (as determined by MLB.com): Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects 2020 WWW.MLB.COM All 30 Major League organizations had some serious decisions to make by Friday. They had until 6 p.m. ET to decide what they would do with their 40-man rosters. Some prospects have earned a coveted spot, some have not and will thus be eligible to be taken by the other Some teams' non-Top 30 prospects have already been protected.
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That was truer two decades ago than it is in today's analytical front offices.
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Baseball Trade Values identifies the proper variables: years of team control, salary, age, well-established production projections. By doing so the website draws us closer to the elusive truth. Or not. One could dispute the value BTV assigns to a particular variable. Too often a fan will consider only one or two of those variables (or none, relying soley on name recognition). The result can be unrealistic trade proposals.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html As we know, not all candidates prevail.
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MLB.com and Roster Resource list Matt Barnes as the Red Sox closer: Depth Chart | Boston Red Sox WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox Matt Barnes and his projected $4.1 million salary is not worth Braden Bishop or any other minimal asset. There is a reason Barnes is a non-tender candidate. Barnes at $2 million might be a different story.