harmony

Through age 28 seasons, Xander Bogaerts had 1,114 games and 4,758 plate appearances, Nomar Garciaparra 772 games and 3,457 plate appearances, and Rico Petrocelli 977 games and 3,915 plate appearances. Bogaerts had made three All Star appearances, Garciaparra had made four All Star appearances, and Petrocelli had made two All Star appearances. FWIW

Brief descriptions of Steamer, ZiPS, Marcel and PECOTA: Steamer | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (Marcel) | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball Projections of forum posters often seem to be pulled out of thin air but Steamer, ZiPS, Marcel and PECOTA apparently are the products of methodology. Assign whatever weight is appropriate.

This poster generally refrains from making an evaluation. The statistics are offered to help others make evaluations if that's what the reader wants to do. The evaluator can choose to ignore the stats or to cite the stats for whatever purpose. No one should care about this poster's opinion ... if he even has one.

Fair enough. This poster regrets his role in injecting semantics into this baseball discussion. Back to baseball.

ZiPS, Steamer, Marcel and/or PECOTA projections -- often conflicting -- are offered, typically without a conclusion. The inconsistent projections are evidence that nothing is offered as gospel. The reader can draw a conclusion ... or no conclusion at all.

It imposes a belief without consent. ZiPS, Steamer, PECOTA and Marcel are offered for discussion, not as absolute truths.

The ZiPS projected standings were offered voluntarily for forum discussion. ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel projections are frequently offered for the same purpose. BTW the assignment of a "gospel" label is offensive on several levels.

It certainly does suggest the AL East as the dominant division ... it's the annual rite of February.

The Red Sox move up to No. 11 in Baseball America's rankings of farm systems: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/2/2/22914786/red-sox-top-prospects-organization-rankings-baseball-america-marcelo-mayer-triston-casas-nick-yorke

Future fandom is uncertain. I remained a Kansas City Royals fan for eight years after the Royals won the 1985 World Series (even though the Minnesota Twins, my childhood favorite team, won two World Series during that eight-year span).

FWIW the 2021 Seattle Mariners ranked in the middle of the pack of American League attendance (although Toronto's attendance was artificially low because of travel restrictions). Indeed Seattle has MLB's longest current postseason drought at 20 years despite a better cumulative regular-season record than nine franchises over that period. The postseason has eluded the Mariners despite seasons of 93, 93, 90, 89, 88, 87, 86 and 85 wins since 2001. This poster was a hardcore Denver Bronco fan for 20 years but lost interest in the NFL altogether after the Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in the late 1990s. The Mariners may or may not win a World Series in this poster's lifetime. I can live (and die) with that.

A badge of honor. Some folks cheer on the Elon Musks of the world while others cheer on the less privileged.

The Los Angeles Angels are looking to snap MLB's longest current streak of consecutive losing seasons. ZiPS projects only one AL West team with a winning record. In interleague play this year, the AL West is paired with the NL East, which is projected to finish a cumulative 20 games above .500 after finishing a cumulative 51 games below .500 last year when the division was paired against the AL East. This year the AL East is paired with the NL Central, which is projected to finish a cumulative eight games below .500. The AL East is projected to finish a cumulative 18 games above .500. In an annual rite of February, East Coast teams find themselves with favorable preseason projections.

ZiPS has released its early projected American League standings: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-lockout-projected-zips-standings-american-league-edition/

Daniel Nava? https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201006120.shtml First MLB pitch nonetheless.

The Cooler. Or not.

ESPN columnist Keith Law writes that Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran just missed his Top 100 prospect list: https://theathletic.com/3097146/2022/02/01/just-missed-list-the-baseball-prospects-right-behind-keith-laws-2022-top-100/ Subscription required. Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, Triston Casas and Brayan Bello made Law's earlier Top 100 list. https://theathletic.com/3074113/2022/01/31/top-100-mlb-prospects-2022-keith-laws-rankings-with-adley-rutschman-at-no-1/

FWIW Marcel projects Bobby Dalbec with a 2022 line of .244/.312/.477/.798 in 451 plate appearances to go with 23 home runs and 70 RBI. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dalbebo01.shtml Steamer projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .234/.306/.470/.776 in 545 plate appearances to go with 29 home runs and 70 RBI. ZiPS projects Dalbec with a 2022 line of .228/.303/.459/.762 in 489 plate appearances to go with 25 home runs and 71 RBI. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/bobby-dalbec/19966/stats?position=1B

MLB Trade Rumors asks: Who is blocking Triston Casas? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/whos-blocking-triston-casas.html#comments

Today this pencil neck geek will brave 40-degree temperatures under sunny skies to witness a college baseball scrimmage between a Division III school and a community college. Thoughts are with everyone dealing with the nor'easter.

The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham weighs in on the Seiya Suzuki market: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/seiya-suzuki-rumors-padres-cubs-giants-mariners-finalists.html https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/01/29/sports/data-rules-election-david-ortiz-hall-fame-is-victory-eye-test/

An opinion that a post is denigrating perhaps reflects the bias of the reader. Or not. Noted was Jarren Duran's BTV surplus trade value that was nearly four times that of Taylor Trammell: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18170-Should-Jackie-Bradley-Jr-be-traded?p=1446206&highlight=trammell#post1446206 Borrowing a previous poster's words regarding Duran, signing off with "Perhaps each is destined to be a 'classic 4A ballplayer, a Triple A star.' Or not." Duran's higher surplus trade value over Cal Raleigh was noted before a closing that "The development of Duran and Raleigh should be interesting to follow": https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20195-A-Realistic-View-at-2022-Part-I?p=1447538&highlight=trammell#post1447538 We all have the option to ignore posts that add nothing to the discussion. Feel free to exercise that right.

Guilty as charged. A rare opinion, but one that has held up well to date.

Upon demand only, the rare opinion was "The Red Sox paid full market price. Nothing wrong with that." https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20141-Barnes-extended?p=1401887&highlight=harmony#post1401887

Comparative stats are provided without offering a conclusion. The reader is free to reach a conclusion or no conclusion at all.