harmony

On comp for Triston Casas might be Seattle first baseman Evan White, who in November 2019 signed a six-year, $24 million extension having never played above Double A. White, who was 23 years old, was ranked in the 50-60 range on the following year's Top 100 prospect lists. Casas, who turns 23 in January, entered this season ranked No. 19, No. 16 and No. 44 at the major services. White was coming off a season with a 132 wRC+ at Double A Arkansas while Casas is coming off a season of a 127 wRC+ at Triple A Worcester before his respectable debut with the Red Sox. Their career minor league lines: EW 262 G, 1131 PA, .288/.356/.477/.833 TC 284 G, 1210 PA, .269/.374/.485/.858 White was the 17th pick of the 2017 draft out of college while Casas was the 26th pick of the 2018 draft out of high school. White, at 6-3, 219 pounds, bats right but throws left while Casas, at 6-4, 252 pounds, bats left and throws right. The White extension has not turned out well for the Mariners as the 2020 Gold Glove winner has posted a negative 0.6 fWAR/bWAR in 84 MLB games. Therein lies the risk in signing a young player to an extension. Casas may have All Star potential but fans should be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.

Debates over Tim Anderson's value can be exhausting: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7435&start=30#p213989

Last offseason Matthew Boyd, who is two years younger than James Paxton, signed a one-year, $5.2 million contract with the San Francisco Giants, taking a pay cut after the Detroit Tigers non-tendered the lefthander coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season of a 3.89 ERA in 15 starts. The Giants knew Boyd would not be available on Opening Day and at the trade deadline traded an unused Boyd to the Seattle Mariners, who deployed Boyd as a reliever. Boyd is now a free agent and might prefer a team with multiple openings in its starting rotation. Or not.

That's why Chris Archer provided the closest comp.

Idiom: Throw good money after bad. The Seattle Mariners in 2021 paid James Paxton $8.25 million to pitch 1.1 innings at a 6.75 ERA. The Boston Red Sox turned around and guaranteed Paxton $10 million in 2022 when the lefthander pitched no MLB innings. Paxton remains well-regarded in Seattle as a former MLB player but his active days may be over.

FWIW James Paxton has expressed his support for the MLBPA:

Last offseason righthander Chris Archer, who is the same age as James Paxton, landed a one-year, $3.5 million contract. Archer had pitched only 19.1 MLB innings over the two previous seasons. Archer had posted a career fWAR of 20.2 (bWAR 13.6) while Paxton has a career fWAR of 17.4 (bWAR 12.6). Other comparable one-year contracts for starting pitchers last offseason:* Drew Smyly $4.25 million Martin Perez $4 million Rich Hill $5 million Dylan Bundy $5 million * according to MLB Trade Rumors Transaction Tracker: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/transactiontracker

No argument with that point.

James Paxton, who turns 34 years old next weekend, has pitched 21.2 innings over the last three MLB seasons (20.1 in 2020, 1.1 in 2021 and 0 in 2022)* As a point of reference, the durable Rick Porcello, who is the same age as the fragile Paxton, has pitched 59 MLB innings over that period. From a strictly financial standpoint, Paxton should exercise a $4 million player option. However, Paxton may prefer to try out for a contender. * this year in the rookie-level Florida Complex League, Paxton recorded two outs before exiting with a lat injury

Brock Holt, the Red Sox representative at the 2015 All Star Game, has announced his retirement: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CkOWqTNLXbZ/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=de86e132-b265-49ab-b3b6-96f2a99ef1c9 The Red Sox released Holt six days after hiring Chaim Bloom to be chief baseball officer. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/holtbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=&utm_medium=referral#all_transactions_other

FWIW Xander Bogaerts is a year younger than Robinson Cano was in December 2013 when the Seattle Mariners signed Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract. At the time Cano had posted 35.8 fWAR in 1,374 games with the Yankees while Bogaerts has posted 34.2 fWAR in 1,264 games with the Red Sox. Interesting comp of middle infielders from the American League East.

In the same piece at The Athletic Bowden lists the Mariners as the best fit for shortstop Xander Bogaerts: An excerpt: Bowden projects Bogaerts with a seven-year, $196 million contract.

Columnist (and former MLB exec) Jim Bowden at The Athletic lists the Red Sox as the best fit for shortstop Dansby Swanson: https://theathletic.com/3713969/2022/10/27/mlb-free-agent-shortstops-new-teams/ Subscription required. An excerpt:

Is it tampering for a team to be "in on" Xander Bogaerts before he opts out and becomes a free agent?

Granted bias is at play but no sense can be made of this proposed trade of five years of 26-year-old Jarren Duran, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, and four years of 27-year-old Bobby Dalbec, who posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this season, to Seattle for six years of 23-year-old righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105381/

Would the Mets prefer the compensation that attaches to the qualifying offer if Chris Bassitt signs elsewhere? Would Bassitt gamble on the free agent market by declining a qualifying offer? If Bassitt declines a qualifying offer, would the resulting penalty to a signing club shrink Bassitt's free agent market to the point that Bassitt is compelled to re-sign with the Mets at less than $19 million? It's complicated.

From Metsmerized: https://metsmerizedonline.com/the-curious-case-of-chris-bassitt/

Is Chris Bassitt, despite his complicated contract, less likely to receive a qualifying offer than Michael Wacha? This year the 33-year-old Bassett posed 2.7 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR in 30 starts while the 31-year-old Wacha posted 1.5 fWAR and 3.3 bWAR in 23 starts. The Mets and Bassitt have a $19 million mutual option, or $150,000 buyout, for 2023. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york...bassitt-14068/

What if the choice for a high OBP outfielder was between 35-year-old Michael Brantley at a projected two-year, $16 million contract or 28-year-old Andrew Benintendi at a projected six-year, $104 million contract? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/ Would Brantley and Benintendi be better options than a trade for one year of 29-year-old lefthand-hitting outfielder Jesse Winker with a 2023 salary of $8.25 million?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

That the smaller the sample the more random the results?

To place matters into perspective: The Red Sox finished 21 games behind the Yankees this year after posting a 6-13 record against the Bronx Bombers.

After playing to a near draw over the previous eight years, this season AL East teams dominated AL West teams with an 89-66 record in the regular season. In the postseason the AL East went 0-6 against the the AL West. The postseason is a crap shoot, but the Houston Astros may well have the league's best team.

FWIW this year the Astros have won five straight postseason games by a margin of two or fewer runs. The Astros are up 5-0 today against the Yankees. The Seattle Mariners were only 26-31 after splitting their first 12 games against the Astros this year but were 1-5 against the 'Stros the remainder of the season despite going on a 64-41 run.

Sportrac assigns Daniel Vogelbach a current market value of $15 million total over three years: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/