harmony

At this time last year that Red Sox could return this lineup intact: C Christian Vazquez 1B Bobby Dalbec (coming off a .955 OPS second half) 2B Christian Arroyo 3B Rafael Devers SS Xander Bogaerts LF Alex Verdugo CF Kiki Hernandez RF Hunter Renfroe DH J.D. Martinez To date the Red Sox have added Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, Reese McGuire/Connor Wong and the prospect of Triston Casas to that lineup while subtracting Martinez, Vazquez, Renfroe and possibly Bogaerts (not to mention the remote possibility of a Devers trade). A year ago the Sox were counting on Chris Sale to rejoin Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta in a starting rotation that had gotten 13 solid starts from Tanner Houck. Now the Sox have Pivetta, the shells of Sale and James Paxton, and the promise of the unproven Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Houck. If that does not present more holes to fill, the consensus is that the Red Sox must give bullpen upgrades high priority. The Red Sox may face their most serious offseason challenges of the millennium while navigating the luxury tax threshold.

Michael Fulmer it is.

To be precise, if Xander Bogaerts signs elsewhere the Red Sox should received an added draft pick after the fourth round has been completed: Qualifying Offer | Glossary | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball If the Red Sox sign a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer, the Sox will lose their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft. A second QO signing would result in the forfeiture of the third- and sixth-highest picks as well. In short, the Bogaerts compensation would not cancel out the forfeitures.

Or about half a Rafael Montero with a three-year commitment.

notin target Rafael Montero re-signs with the Houston Astros: https://www.instagram.com/p/Ck3WNipO8hm/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y%3D Three years, $34.5 million. Whoa.

We find rare agreement on one issue. Unless Seattle reliever Paul Sewald successfully recruits his younger brother's friend, a fellow graduate of Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ron-kantowski/joey-gallo-tops-paul-sewald-in-a-duel-of-bishop-gorman-stars-2415465/

Perhaps James Paxton knows his health better than we do as the Scott Boras client settles for $4 million.

James Paxton reportedly exercised his $4 million player option for 2023: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/james-paxton-exercises-player-option.html The 34-year-old lefthander probably knows his health better than we do.

FanGraphs has ranked its Top 50 free agents with projected contracts: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-50-free-agents/

The Mariners are likely to keep Jarred Kelenic but trade Jesse Winker and at least one of Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe. Seattle has no need for Josh Donaldson or Isiah Kiner-Falefa but might be interested in two years of Gleyber Torres, who has only $3 million in surplus trade value at Baseball Trade Values: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9590/ The top Yankee prospects are middle infielders and the Yanks may pursue one of the top free agent shortstops if Aaron Judge signs elsewhere. If they lose Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Benintendi to free agency, would the Yankees be interested in the lefthanded bat of Jesse Winker? Whom would the Yankees want in return for Torres, who has posted 4.9 bWAR and a 104 OPS+ in 309 games over the past three seasons? https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/10/28/23427714/yankees-gleyber-torres-trade-future-solid-regular-limited-upside-above-average-offense-defense https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-yankees/yankees-could-end-up-trading-starting-infielder-this-off-season/ https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2022/10/31/yankees-roster-addressing-the-infield/ Perhaps these questions are not appropriate for a Red Sox forum.

Just a qualifying offer for an incumbent, two non-QO free agents outside the Top 20 and a trade for a second baseman to bat in the 9 hole.

As good as any November 6 projection ... not good at all. Or are you assuming the Mariners will sign Aaron Judge and Trea Turner?

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe expects the Mariners to extend a qualifying offer that Mitch Haniger will accept: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-11-4-22/ An astute Seattle fan projects this 2023 Mariner lineup (with 2023 age, career OBP, career OPS+ and single-season high in home runs): LF Michael Conforto L (30), .356 OBP, 124 OPS+, 33 HR 1B Ty France R (28), .348 OBP, 122 OPS+, 20 HR CF Julio Rodriguez R (22), .345 OBP, 147 OPS+, 28 HR RF Joey Gallo L (29), .325 OBP, 109 OPS+, 41 HR 3B Eugenio Suarez R (31), .334 OBP, 111 OPS+, 49 HR C Cal Raleigh S (26), .268 OBP, 101 OPS+, 27 HR DH Mitch Haniger R (32), .335 OBP, 123 OPS+, 39 HR SS J.P. Crawford L (28), .333 OBP, 95 OPS+, 9 HR 2B Gleyber Torres R (26), .331 OBP, 114 OPS+, 38 HR No new long-term contracts; no outside free agents with qualifying offers.

In interview with a Seattle radio station, ESPN columnist Jon Morosi mentioned Joey Gallo as a player who could potentially benefit from new restrictions on defensive shifts: https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1687763/morosi-mariners-free-agent-bats-targets-2022/ This Seattle fan has Joey Gallo batting cleanup for the 2023 Mariners.

Like the Seattle Mariners, who traded Pablo Lopez and three others to Miami for David Phelps, and Freddy Peralta and two others to Milwaukee for Adam Lind. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezpa01.shtml#all_transactions_other https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peralfr01.shtml#all_transactions_other

The Over the Monster analysis on German Marquez: https://www.overthemonster.com/2022/11/1/23433397/the-red-sox-should-target-rockies-pitcher-german-marquez-in-a-trade-this-offseason

That's why the quantity of quality prospects is important. The Seattle Mariners have graduated a slew of Top 100 prospects over the past few years with disappointing results from Jarred Kelenic, Evan White, Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, Taylor Trammell and in the last two years 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis. Yet the promising Mariner future is built around graduated prospects Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert and Matt Brash. Not all top prospects work out.

The Seattle Mariners were not on the list despite Aaron Judge's reported positive interaction this year with Julio Rodriguez and Ken Griffey Jr.: Aaron Judge, Julio Rodríguez exchange signed gear WWW.MLB.COM SEATTLE -- Julio Rodríguez was about to duck from the home dugout into the batting cage to take more swings as he works his way back from a right wrist contusion. But first, he said: “We’re about to make a trade.” Say what? The Trade Deadline has passed? No, it Seattle fans should be careful what they wish for in an expensive, long-term contract.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Phillips Valdez, who is a month older than Seattle righthander Luis Castillo, did not earn a mention today in The Athletic's analysis of Seattle's Rule 5 and 40-man roster decisions: https://theathletic.com/3740190/2022/10/31/seattle-mariners-40-man-roster-decisions/ Subscription required.

The staff at The Athletic lists the Red Sox among six potential landing spots for top free agent Aaron Judge: https://theathletic.com/3742516/2022/10/31/aaron-judge-free-agent-destinations/ Subscription required but here is an excerpt:

But, but, but ... Baseball Trade Values approved a trade of five years of 26-year-old Jarren Duran, who posted a negative 0.4 fWAR this year, and four years of 27-year-old Bobby Dalbec, who posted a negative 0.1 fWAR this season, to Seattle for six years of 23-year-old righthander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-105381/ Hancock dropped from Top 100 prospect lists this year despite striking out the side in his one-inning appearance at the Futures Game: MLB Gameday: AL Futures 6, NL Futures 4 Final Score (07/16/2022) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for AL Futures vs. NL Futures at Dodger Stadium This year Hancock posted an ERA of 3.75 in 21 starts at Double A Arkansas and is expected to make his MLB debut in 2023: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hancoc000eme Needless to say, Seattle isn't making that trade for disappointing post-prospects who play positions where the Mariners this year fielded All Stars who remain under team control for years.

If the choice is between Brandon Nimmo at five years, $100 million (qualifying offer) and Joey Gallo at two years, $25 million (no qualifying offer), the latter might be the better option. But the Mariners already have a center fielder. From a Seattle forum: https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7432&sid=f03862a4eefac7aad120e4554e0f8560&start=40#p214116

FWIW in 2021 Joey Gallo posted 4.2 fWAR in 153 games while Brandon Nimmo, who is eight months older than Gallo, posted 3.3 fWAR in 92 games. Nimmo will be rewarded for his fine 2022 season and Gallo punished for his disappointing 2022 season but the contract difference might not be proportionate to their respective values.

Not to answer for the beloved moonslav and notin, but the answer is: YES.

Here's a free agent comp: Jacoby Ellsbury and Brandon Nimmo, lefthand-hitting center fielders who entered free agency after their age 29 seasons. When the Yankees signed Ellsbury to a seven-year, $153 million contract in December 2013 Ellsbury had posted 22.2 fWAR/21.4 bWAR in 715 games, including 4.6 fWAR/5.8 bWAR in 134 games the previous season. Nimmo has posted 17.9 fWAR/17.6 bWAR in 608 games, including 5.4 fWAR/5.0 bWAR in 151 games this year. Products of the High Plains, Ellsbury was the 23rd pick of the 2005 draft out of college while Nimmo was the 13th pick of the 2011 draft out of high school. Will Nimmo approach the years and/or dollars of the Ellsbury contract?