harmony

From a Pinstripe Alley blogger minutes before Kenley Jansen reportedly reached a deal with the Red Sox: https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/12/7/23497672/kenley-jansen-yankees-free-agent-target-atlanta-braves-brian-cashman

With the reported signings of Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida, Sportrac estimates the 2023 Red Sox tax payroll at $192.459 million: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/ Will the Red Sox sign Xander Bogaerts and a starting pitcher such as Kodai Senga? Or will the Sox look elsewhere?

Chaim Bloom and staff had a busy day. The Red Sox roster looks better than it did at sunrise.

Any interest in nearly 30-year-old Minnesota right fielder Max Kepler, a plus defender who is owed $8.5 million in 2023 with a $10 million team option, or $1 million buyout, for 2024? The Twins reportedly are shopping Kepler (whose warts differ from Joey Gallo's in that Kepler's strikeout rate is lower than the league average). https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/stats?position=OF Baseball Trade Values assigns Kepler a modest surplus value of $5.8 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/8620/

The June 2023 draft order is taking shape subject to compensation for free agents who were given qualifying offers: 2023 MLB Draft Order | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Complete order for the 2022 MLB Draft

Jose Quintana may have preferred a likelier contender.

MLB Trade Rumors had projected Kenley Jansen with a two-year, $26 million contract so the reported deal is in line with this offseason's inflated figures. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html

Chalk it up as an upgrade to the Red Sox bullpen.

A Seattle blogger mentions Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec as potential Mariner trade targets: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2022/12/6/23493044/mariners-trade-targets-2023-offseason-the-crows-nest-patching-the-hull No thanks.

Criticisms will fill Seattle forums if the Mariners' rumored signing of free agent Wil Myers becomes official. Is it better for front office executives to just sit on their hands during the winter meetings?

Some projections on Chris Flexen are bearish apparently because of weak peripherals this year: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-flexen/13896/stats?position=P ... but another is not: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flexech01.shtml

Compare the stats over the past two seasons for righthanders Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Chris Flexen: JT 321.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 100 ERA+, 4.2 fWAR, 3.5 bWAR TW 316.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 99 ERA+, 3.9 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR CF 317.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 108 ERA+, 3.7 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR The Seattle Mariners reportedly are shopping Flexen, who is two years younger than Walker and two-and-a-half years younger than Taillon. Flexen lost some luster in August when Luis Castillo bumped Flexen from the Seattle rotation. Despite the demotion Flexen matched Taillon’s 2022 bWAR of 1.3. Many will point to Flexen’s drop in fWAR from 3.0 in 2021 to 0.7 in 2022. However, Walker has never posted an fWAR above 2.5 and Taillon has not exceeded 2.3 fWAR since 2018. MLB Trade Rumors projected Taillon and Walker with four-year contracts in free agency, Taillon at $56 million and Walker at $52 million. Flexen is guaranteed a 2023 salary of $8 million in what MLB Trade Rumors reports is his final year of team control (despite Flexen currently sitting on two years and 107 days of MLB service).

MLB Trade Rumors projected Taijuan Walker with a four-year, $52 million contract and Jameson Taillon with a four-year, $56 million contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html One year of Seattle righthander Chris Flexen, who is at least two years younger than Walker and Taillon, at $8 million become a more attractive trade target. Or not.

Will Aaron Judge join Mitch Haniger and Joc Pederson for a San Francisco Giant outfield of Northern California products? ... although none of those three should be an everyday center fielder.

In today's lottery the Red Sox landed the 14th pick in the June 2023 draft: MLB Draft lottery results 2023 WWW.MLB.COM SAN DIEGO -- Major League Baseball conducted its first Draft Lottery on Tuesday at the Winter Meetings, and the Pirates walked away with the biggest prize: the No. 1 pick in the 2023 Draft. The Nationals secured the second pick, the Tigers will select third and the Rangers fourth. The

The Red Sox reportedly talked with the Brewers about second baseman Kolten Wong, whom Milwaukee instead traded to Seattle (which had a more obvious need at second base): https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/12/06/sports/red-sox-kicked-tires-kolten-wong-trade-not-necessarily-xander-bogaerts-succession-plan/ https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/red-sox-notes-bogaerts-wong-vazquez-contreras-heaney.html

Maybe leftfield and lefthanded reliever. Or not. Some point to the scarcity of lefthanded specialists among Seattle relievers (Gabe Speier and Brennan Bernardino notwithstanding). Others note that many righthanders in the M's bullpen are effective against lefthanded hitters. The Mariners currently have Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe as leftfield options while lacking a dedicated designated hitter. A judgment on the weakest players on Seattle's 40-man roster is beyond this poster's expertise: 40-Man Roster | Seattle Mariners WWW.MLB.COM The Official Site of Major League Baseball

The Mariners replaced free agent Matthew Boyd by signing free agent reliever Trevor Gott on November 30 (and replaced free agent catcher Curt Casali by trading for catcher Cooper Hummel on November 17). Gott, a righthander, probably replaced Erik Swanson, who was dealt in the Teoscar Hernandez trade, not Boyd, a lefthander who preferred a shot at a starting rotation when he signed with Detroit on December 1.

The Mariners have replaced free agents Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier with Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong (and replaced deadline acquisitions Curt Casali and Matthew Boyd with Cooper Hummel and Trevor Gott). Seattle has been active in the offseason but, indeed, the Mariners probably are not done.

Duly noted.

Prospect rankings typically rank a player higher as the developing player nears the MLB level. The Seattle front office reportedly likes its current farm system where three of the top four prospects (and 6 of top 11) have not reached their 20th birthdays. Their national rankings will be updated as these young prospects develop ... or not.

Perhaps Baseball America honors a franchise that does not needlessly hoard prospects but instead prudently spends prospect capital to improve the team.

Apparently because the Mariners have traded for Teoscar Hernandez and Kolten Wong, who each come with only one year of team control. If the Mariners stay with the trade route, one year of Gold Glove winner Ian Happ, who posted 3.5 fWAR this year, would cost less than three years of Bryan Reynolds, who posted 2.9 fWAR this year. Seattle executive Jerry Dipoto has probably made calls on the switch-hitting NL Central outfielders born five months apart.

History has its place. So do current affairs.

The American League West is poised to become an even tougher division. Just a wild guess but the Mariners are likely to call Scott Boras about a short-term contract for one of his lefthand-hitting outfielders in Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger or Joey Gallo. Seattle is unlikely to pursue the top free agents who will command long-term contracts because the Mariners currently have MLB's third-highest payroll commitment from 2024 on. Long-term contracts on top of those already given Julio Rodriguez, Robbie Ray, Luis Castillo and J.P. Crawford would limit the M's ability to extend the young core of George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Cal Raleigh when that trio reaches arbitration. The Mariners have already executed three trades in what should be an interesting offseason.