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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Sort of the flip side of Monday's game.
  2. harmony
    The Red Sox still have an 80 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, according to Cool Standings: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx
  3. harmony
    After Wednesday's game, the Red Sox will have played 59 of 99 games at home, where the Sox so far have been winning at a .596 clip. The Red Sox play 41 of the remaining 63 games on the road, where the Sox have been winning at a .525 clip. Before the season I thought July would be critical for the Sox with 18 of their first 21 July games at Fenway Park. The Sox have responded well. The road ahead could be rough, especially in September, when the Sox play only eight of 27 games at Fenway Park.
  4. harmony
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2012-college-player-of-the-year-mike-zunino-13591/#sz7yC3eXvQPSQu49.97
  5. harmony
    Here are A.J. Pollock's 2015 counting stats and Xander Bogaerts' 2016 stats prorated for the entire season: AJP .315/367/.498/.865, 132 OPS+, 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB XB .329./.388/.475/.863, 126 OPS+, 121 R, 18 HR, 104 RBI, 20 SB I suspect the runs and RBI totals are impacted by a 2016 Red Sox lineup that is probably more productive than the 2015 Diamondback lineup. Learn more on the arbitration process: http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=643:arbitration&catid=44:business-of-baseball-glossary&Itemid=75 http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-salary-arbitration-process-breakdown-spring-training-2016/4jkawqkczi8i17cb4rhqjxseh
  6. harmony
    A.J. Pollock entered his first arbitration with 13.5 fWAR in 400 career games, including an fWAR of 6.6 the preceding year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9256&position=OF Xander Bogaerts has posted 8.2 fWAR in 403 career games, including an fWAR of 3.4 87 games into the 162-game 2016 season. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS The fWAR positional adjustment already gives Bogaerts more credit at shortstop than Pollock gets in the outfield: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/
  7. harmony
    Miami righthander Jose Fernandez earns $2.8 million this season in his first year of arbitration. Coming of a 7.4 bWAR season, Arizona outfielder A.J. Pollock was projected to earned $4.8 million in his first year of arbitration but instead signed for $10.25 million over two years.
  8. harmony
    And the Padres probably would have preferred Yoan Moncada to Anderson Espinoza. I suspect the Red Sox front office exercised due diligence and concluded that the club could not pass up an Espinoza-for-Pomeranz trade.
  9. harmony
    Aaron Hill and Brad Ziegler are solid acquisitions at reasonable costs but the starting rotation still needs attention.
  10. harmony
    Travis Shaw is a 26-year-old whose long history of struggles against lefthanders dates back to his minor league days. The Red Sox should be grateful for Shaw's contributions to date but we should all temper our expectations going forward.
  11. harmony
    Also missing are the innings totals for Josh Beckett and Julio Teheran. In the three seasons before his trade to Boston, Josh Beckett totaled 142, 156.2 and 178.2 innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckejo02.shtml In the last three seasons Julio Teheran has totaled 185.2, 221 and 200.2 innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml With 112.2 innings so far this year, Teheran is on pace for 211.1 innings. The ability to eat innings alone has value.
  12. harmony
    Is that proposal nuttier than the Red Sox trading the SoxProspects No. 4, 6, 13 and 25 prospects for two years of a 27-year-old reliever who was owed $25 million? The Red Sox package included prospects ranked No. 14 and No. 56 by Baseball Prospectus in February. Bear in mind that 25-year-old Julio Teheran remains under team control for four-and-a-half years for about $40 million total (not counting the $50,000 bonus for his All Star selection this year). Bear mind that Teheran has doubled Craig Kimbrel's fWAR so far this year. The Red Sox may not be willing to meet the demands for a starter of Teheran's caliber and team control but the Braves are justified is asking a high price.
  13. harmony
    We're also comparing trades a decade apart. The difference in years of team control -- two years for Josh Beckett vs. four-and-a-half years for Julio Teheran -- should offset any slight difference in prospect rankings. If I were the Atlanta GM I would make the trade if Nick Markakis were included. As the Boston GM I would make the trade because it could address immediate and long-term needs. I don't see an impact starter coming up through the Red Sox farm system in the near future. Teheran's modest contract would not raise luxury tax issues that a free agent starter could (if an impact free agent starter were available in the offseason).
  14. harmony
    So far Andrew Benintendi and Anderson Espinoza have topped out at No. 15 and No. 19 on Baseball America's preseason Top 100 prospect list (and at No. 9 and No. 15 on BA's midseason list released today), while Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez topped out at No. 10 and No. 40 on BA preseason lists. All four were highly regarded prospects.
  15. harmony
    A good trade should benefit both teams. Despite this year's disappointments, this trade could still produce the desired results in the end.
  16. harmony
    I like the symmetry of a trade of Anderson Espinoza, Andrew Benintendi and a lower-level prospect for Julio Teheran and Nick Markakis. Benintendi reminds me of a young Markakis, another lefthand-hitting, lefthand-throwing outfielder taken with the No. 7 pick of an MLB draft (with a Mediterranean-sounding surname to boot). The Braves get younger versions of their traded players while the Red Sox get an All Star starting pitcher and another option in the outfield.
  17. harmony
    At the time of the trade, nearly 32-year-old Mike Lowell was owed $18 million over two years coming off a 0.1 fWAR season. Today's equivalent might be 32-year-old Atlanta outfielder Nick Markakis with an annual salary of $10.5 million through 2018 and an fWAR of 0.3 so far this season.
  18. harmony
    Julio Teheran is one day older today than Josh Beckett was in November 2005 when the Red Sox traded top prospects Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez (and two others) to the Marlins for Beckett, Guillermo Mota and the then-underwater contract of Mike Lowell. Beckett came with two years of team control while Teheran remains under team control for three-and-a-half years at a bargain rate with a team option for an additional year. Here are the stat lines for Beckett at the time of the trade and for Teheran today (with all stats compiled while pitching for a National League East team): JB 106 G, 103 GS, 609.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 118 ERA+, 10.7 bWAR, 13.7 fWAR JT 120 G, 117 GS, 746.0 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 113 ERA+, 12.0 bWAR, 8.5 fWAR In 2006 Baseball America ranked Ramirez and Sanchez No. 30 and No. 40 on its Top 100 prospect list after ranking Ramirez No. 10 the previous year. Given the comps, especially the years of team control, the Braves would not be unreasonable in demanding a top Red Sox prospect or two in exchange for Teheran.
  19. harmony
    Moments ago from a Seattle Mariner beat reporter who is a former president of the Baseball Writers' Association of America: I've asked the Seattle front office to forward to general manager Jerry Dipoto my email inquiring whether the Red Sox gave the Mariners the choice between Wade Miley and Clay Buchholz. I don't expect an answer.:D
  20. harmony
    It probably does not matter ... I suspect Atlanta will get better offers for Julio Teheran and Arizona will get better offers for Brad Ziegler. The proposal's inclusion of shortstop Mauricio Dubon is puzzling because the Braves have Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies, shortstops ranked No. 10 and No. 21 in the Baseball Prospectus midseason ranking of prospects. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29756
  21. harmony
    Of course speculation provides a basis for discussion. I was speculating when I wrote "I suspect Seattle preferred Wade Miley over Clay Buchholz because the lefthander is younger, more durable, less expensive and under team control for more years. ... If the Mariners had a choice between Miley and Buchholz, the decision was a no-brainer." I simply take issue with the erroneous statement that "it was reported widely (we've had this discussion before) that the Mariners were offered one of Miley/Buchholz in the deal."
  22. harmony
    That's why an astute poster will frame the issue as "If the Red Sox offered a choice ..." rather than "The Red Sox offered a choice ..." A meaningful discussion can follow.
  23. harmony
    I suspect both teams would "still do the deal today."
  24. harmony
    I've read no report that the Red Sox offered Clay Buchholz to the Mariners. Buchholz suggested that his name came up in discussions but I don't know the source of his information. Did Dave Dombrowski tell Buchholz that he had offered the righthander to Seattle? Or did a friend call Buchholz leaving the wrong impression after reading the Ken Rosenthal tweet? Or something in between?
  25. harmony
    According to WEEI, Clay Buchholz reported that his name came up in the Red Sox negotiations with the Mariners. That may be true although I don't know the source of Buchholz's information. What has never been reported is that the Red Sox gave the Mariners the choice between Buchholz and Wade Miley. Again, I have been consistent in posting that, if given the choice, I suspect Seattle preferred Miley over Buchholz. I have never wavered on that opinion.
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