harmony

The Red Sox could have competition for Starlin Castro: Seattle's newly acquired Dee Gordon might be nominally available. How about Rick Porcello and Jackie Bradley Jr. for Dee Gordon and lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski? Masslive columnist Christopher Smith today suggested the Red Sox trade Porcello to clear payroll space: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/12/how_boston_red_sox_should_resp.html#incart_river_index A Gold Glove winner at second base, Gordon could fill in for Dustin Pedroia before testing his defensive skills as Bradley's replacement in center field. Gordon is owed $38 million over the next three years with a team option for a fourth year. Bradley, who is only one year younger than Gordon, remains under team control for three years at at a total cost of, say, at least $24 million (including a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million). Gordon has posted 9.1 fWAR over the past three seasons (with a suspension-shortened 2016), including 3.3 fWAR this year. Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR over the past three seasons, including 2.3 fWAR this year. Porcello has two years and $42 million remaining on his contract while Rzepczynski has one year and $5.5 million left on his pact. After signing a five-year, $50 million extension, Gordon would count only $10 million for luxury tax purposes, meaning the Red Sox could assume $15.5 million, while shedding about $26.3 million, for the 2018 calculation. That frees up money to pursue free agents. OK, the proposal is not realistic ... but I was bored.

I hope neither David Price nor Masahiro Tanaka requires Tommy John surgery, but who is more likely? The Red Sox and Yankees should have formidable starting rotations if everyone is healthy. That's the big "if." This year Red Sox pitchers posted 23.9 fWAR, including 17.0 fWAR from their starters. Yankee pitchers posted 24.4 fWAR, including 15.2 fWAR from their starters. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Much can happen in the balance of the offseason but at this point the starting rotations appear evenly matched.

Where is Jacoby Ellsbury?

The current projected Miami lineup is not all that bad (even without Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon): https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-miami-marlins/ The young Marlin lineup has only two hitters older than 27 years old (and only one over 30). Ordering a Surf and Turf, the Fish will need to beef up the pitching to improve on a 78-86 club that went 11-22 in the final weeks after being three games above .500 on August 27: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2017-schedule-scores.shtml

It's nearly 22-year-old right-hander Jorge Guzman and and barely 18-year-old shortstop Jose Devers (cousin of Rafael Devers): https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=guzman003jor https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=devers000jos&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker- MLB Prospect Watch ranked Guzman ninth in a loaded Yankee farm system while Devers was not ranked: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=nyy

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494/

Seattle traded its No. 2 and No. 7 prospects (and a lower-level prospect) from their weak farm system, according to MLB Prospect Watch. Nick Neidert, a 21-year-old right-hander, was ranked 84th on Baseball America's midseason prospect list but does not currently appear on MLB Prospect Watch's Top 100. I like Dee Gordon but I thought the Mariners overpaid a tad despite picking up $1 million in international slot money. It's sad when Mariner fans find the offseason more entertaining than the regular season.

The Red Sox have placed left-hander Henry Owens on outright waivers, fueling speculation of a pending acquisition: http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-take-henry-owens-40-man-roster-setting-potential-acquisition

Here is a positive piece: http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/05/roster-recap-craig-kimbrel-strikes-back/ Enjoy.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/columnists/steve_buckley/2017/12/buckley_red_sox_should_have_known_about_alex_cora_incident Or not.

The Red Sox apparently will have a more emotional manager this year: http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/new-boston-red-sox-manager-alex-cora-engaged-public-disputes-houston-astros-broadcaster-geoff-blum-manager-aj-hinch

I remember debating the issue on the old Boston.com forum where some posters thought MLB should withhold the the revenue sharing money if the Astros were not spending the money on payroll. I drew the comparative analogy to the person who lives paycheck-to-paycheck and the person who saves money with plans to spend that money at a later date. The Astros have done the latter by appropriately spending the money on Josh Reddick, James McCann, Carlos Beltran, Charlie Morton and Justin Verlander when their young core matured.

I suspect MLB front offices have assigned a decreasing value to saves over the past decade or two. Since joining the Red Sox, Craig Kimbrel trails Kenley Jansen, Alex Colome, Roberto Osuna and A.J. Ramos in the raw number of saves (and just two saves ahead of Fernando Rodney). http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=5,d Kimbrel finished seventh in saves this year and 14th in 2016 despite playing on a team that won a well-above-average 93 games each year. An agent will use any number -- including a somewhat outdated statistic -- to enhance his client's position.

Seattle Mariner fans are freaking out. Except me ... I remain hopeful.

I'll go with the second C). If "the word 'cliff means' 2-3 consecutive years of missing the playoffs," the Red Sox have accomplished that twice in the last eight seasons. Of course, my favorite team has missed the postseason for 16 straight seasons.

The widely cited projections are graded each year: http://mrcheatsheet.com/2017/03/29/best-baseball-projections/ https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/25/14366728/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projecting-pitchers-graded

From Friday's FanGraphs chat with columnist Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-12117/

Baseball Reference projects Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.72 in only 29 innings: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca02.shtml

Opinion 1: Carson Smith had an impressive 2015 season Opinion 2: Carson Smith is not an experienced closer Fact 1: Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.81 in 65 innings: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P The fact is that Steamer and FanGraphs make that projection, not that the projections will ultimately be proven to be accurate.

Carson Smith converted only 13 of 18 save opportunities before losing his short-lived closer's role on a Seattle team that lost 86 games. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=smithca02&t=p&year=2015

When I was a journalism professor I was disappointed that some incoming students struggled to distinguish an opinion from a verifiable fact. I was impressed when my daughters, who are now in college, were taught the difference in a third-grade lesson.

I suspect the Braves had a boatload of offers for their international bonus money.

I generally share that opinion ... but it's an opinion, not a fact.

MLB.com columnist Mark Feinsand lists Brock Holt among the Top 10 non-tender candidates: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262520296/10-potential-non-tender-candidates-in-mlb/

WEEI columnist Rob Bradford examines the Red Sox trade bait: http://www.weei.com/articles/bradford-big-trades-wont-be-easy-these-red-sox