harmony

Opinion 1: Carson Smith had an impressive 2015 season Opinion 2: Carson Smith is not an experienced closer Fact 1: Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.81 in 65 innings: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P The fact is that Steamer and FanGraphs make that projection, not that the projections will ultimately be proven to be accurate.

Carson Smith converted only 13 of 18 save opportunities before losing his short-lived closer's role on a Seattle team that lost 86 games. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=smithca02&t=p&year=2015

When I was a journalism professor I was disappointed that some incoming students struggled to distinguish an opinion from a verifiable fact. I was impressed when my daughters, who are now in college, were taught the difference in a third-grade lesson.

I suspect the Braves had a boatload of offers for their international bonus money.

I generally share that opinion ... but it's an opinion, not a fact.

MLB.com columnist Mark Feinsand lists Brock Holt among the Top 10 non-tender candidates: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262520296/10-potential-non-tender-candidates-in-mlb/

WEEI columnist Rob Bradford examines the Red Sox trade bait: http://www.weei.com/articles/bradford-big-trades-wont-be-easy-these-red-sox

notin offered a great trade idea that happened. It just didn't happen with the Red Sox.

Chicago-based columnist Phil Rogers explores a potential Jose Abreu trade with the Red Sox: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/262619622/will-white-sox-trade-jose-abreu-to-red-sox/

The Braves traded away all of their international bonus money:

The San Francisco Giants reportedly are in the market for an outfielder. If the Red Sox signed J.D. Martinez or traded for Giancarlo Stanton, would anyone trade three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. for the four years and $64 million remaining on the contract of first baseman Brandon Belt? Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 3.0 for Bradley and 2.8 for Belt. Bradley has posted 9.8 fWAR over the last three seasons, including 2.3 fWAR this year, while Belt has posted 10.7 fWAR over the last three years, including 2.3 fWAR this year. Bradley, who is two years younger than Belt, has a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million. The contract for Belt, who has a limited no-trade clause, has an AAV of about $14.5 million for luxury tax purposes. Would the Giants do the trade in light of Belt's additional year of team control? Is Buster Posey positioned to transition more to first base?

The MLB Prospect Watch scouting grades and the FanGraphs future value scores: 45/40 Bobby Dalbec 50/45 Sam Travis 45/40 Luis Alexander Basabe 50/45 Mauricio Dubon http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=bos http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16263&position=1B

Two years of Jose Abreu, who has posted 14.5 fWAR valued at $113.5 million over four seasons, should command a far greater return than Michael Chavis and Roneil Raudes. Chavis, the 92nd-ranked prospect at MLB.com, has a profile similar to that of 86th-ranked prospect Tyler O'Neill, whose trade in July netted only left-hander Marco Gonzales, a former first-round draft pick returning from Tommy John surgery. https://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/ms-get-controllable-starter-marco-gonzales-tyler-oneill/#EufTzAqFkQETTItM.97 http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects FanGraphs gives a future value of 40 to Chavis, a 22-year-old, 5-foot-10, 210-pound right-handed power hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B FanGraphs gives a future value of 50 to O'Neill, a 22-year-old, 5-foot-11, 210-pound right-handed power hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa737633&position=OF FanGraphs gives a future value of 40 to the nearly 26-year-old Gonzales, who was the 19th pick in the 2013 draft: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15467&position=P The inclusion of Raudes in a Chavis trade does little to move the needle.

From this evening's MLB Trade Rumors chat with Jason Martinez: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-with-jason-martinez-november-29-2017-2793.html

Jose Abreu would have no guaranteed salary, only what amounts to a projected $17.9 million team option for 2018 and a team option for a likely higher salary for the final year of team control in 2019. Abreu does not have a no-trade protection. A team that acquires Abreu in a trade assumes little risk. Giancarlo Stanton is guaranteed $77 million over the next three years but could opt for a guaranteed additional $218 million over the next seven seasons. All risks fall on the team's side of the ledger.

The 2018 luxury tax figure for Jose Abreu, who is not under contract, would be his 2018 salary, which is projected at $17.9 million. The AAV calculation applies only to multiyear contracts.

Jose Abreu, under team control for two years with a projected 2018 salary of $17.9 million, may well have more surplus value than Giancarlo Stanton, who has 10 years and $295 million remaining on his contract with a no-trade clause and a potential opt-out after the 2020 season. In a trade Abreu could cost more in terms of talent.

The Red Sox reportedly are in trade talks regarding White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu:

The 2018 Red Sox calendar has an interesting month: https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2017/11/28/why-is-pablo-sandoval-on-a-2018-red-sox-calendar

In a confusing sixth paragraph, a Seattle blogger seems to propose a trade of left-hander Brian Johnson for lefty reliever Marc Rzepczynski and six years of first baseman Dan Vogelbach: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/11/25/16698428/incredible-sulks-offseason-plan The 32-year-old Rzepczynski is owned $5.5 million next season in the final year of his contract. I dislike the proposal for both teams. The Red Sox probably don't want a 1-for-2 trade to add to their 40-man roster. The Mariners probably don't want to give up much of value for Johnson, who is out of options.

Shohei Ohtani, who turned 23 in July, has pitched 543 career innings for the Nippon Ham Fighter of Japan's Pacific League: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=otani-000sho Daisuke Matsuzaka had pitched 1,493.2 innings for the Seibu Lions of the same league before joining the Red Sox at age 26: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matsuda01.shtml

To be precise, Seattle traded Carson Smith and Roenis Elias for Wade Miley and Jonathan Aro. Miley posted 0.6 fWAR and 0.5 bWAR in 19 starts for the Mariners before being traded for left-hander Ariel Miranda, who has posted 0.1 fWAR and 1.9 bWAR in 43 appearances, including 39 starts, for Seattle. Miranda remains under team control for five more seasons. The Boston/Seattle trade may ultimately work out for both clubs but I suspect the Mariners are happy so far.

Good point. I was under the mistaken impression that this forum started up only after the Boston.com forum closed down.

This might be the most unpleasant evening in the history of this forum. It takes only two to ruin a party.

Unless you’re the Red Sox in the 2012-13 offseason.