harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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FanGraphs columnist Paul Swydan looks at Jackie Bradley Jr. and the 2017 dip in Red Sox hitting: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whos-the-real-jackie-bradley-jr/
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And the $5 million buyout of the 2020 team option: http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/san-francisco-giants/ Would the Giants need to pay the league minimum to offset the $5 million buyout?
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The San Francisco Giants have retained Pablo Sandoval at the league minimum with the Red Sox on the hook for the $17.4 million balance in 2018 (and beyond). http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/06/giants-pick-up-options-on-bumgarner-moore-and-sandoval-as-they-gear-up-for-critical-offseason/
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FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron sees the Red Sox as major players this offseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-teams-that-will-run-the-off-season/
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Teams will be reluctant to repeat that mistake.
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A Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter expects Carlos Santana to receive a qualifying offer: http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/10/cleveland_indians_free_agents.html#incart_river_index
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Which is why the Red Sox may not land J.D. Martinez or Eric Hosmer.
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The luxury tax implication will extend far past the reset in 2018 because by the heart of the Stanton contract the Red Sox will need funds to extend, or replace, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi, Dustin Pedroia, Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel. And then there's this Peter Gammons report: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-after-due-celebration-alex-cora-will-quickly-refocus-on-boston/
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Most teams can afford Giancarlo Stanton's annual salary over the duration of the contract (although interest may be limited for other reasons). The Red Sox are at a disadvantage because of the potential luxury tax implications of a $25 million AAV. Most clubs have fewer luxury tax concerns.
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From an MLB Trade Rumors summary of an apparent Peter Gammons report: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/latest-on-giancarlo-stanton.html
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What is frightening is that the Houston Astros flat-out released J.D. Martinez on March 22 of that year. The Tigers signed Martinez two days later and the rest is history. Imagine the 2017 Astros with J.D. Martinez.
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http://www.gamecocksonline.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/bradleyjr_jackie00.html http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/george_springer_391110.html
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Jackie Bradley Jr. has posted 9.9 fWAR in 527 MLB games while George Springer, who is seven months older, has posted 14.6 fWAR in 482 games. Each center fielder remains under team control for three more arbitration seasons, Bradley with a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million and Springer with a projected 2018 salary of $8.9 million. Bradley ranked 46th and Springer 18th on the FanGraphs midseason trade value list: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/ Bradley was the 40th pick and Springer the 11th pick in the June 2011 draft, Bradley out of the University of South Carolina and Springer out of the University of Connecticut.
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Yovani Gallardo posted 0.0 fWAR and 0.1 bWAR this year in 28 appearances, including 22 starts, with a projected 2018 WAR of 0.2 in 25 appearances, including five starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8173&position=P Gallardo had an ERA of 1.69 in six relief appearances covering 16 innings.
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Seattle needs pitching but was compelled to cut ties with Hisashi Iwakuma, who had a $10 million option or $1 million buyout for 2018, and Yovani Gallardo, who had a $13 million option or $2 million buyout for 2018. Iwakuma gave the Mariners a few great seasons but injuries have slowed the righthander as the veteran approaches his age 37 season. The nearly 32-year-old Gallardo did not produce in his only year in Seattle but the Mariners may try to bring him back at a lower salary as the M's blur the distinction between starting pitchers and relievers. The Mariners face serious challenges this offseason.
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I read that with some interest. Lorena Martin, Seattle's director of high performance, reportedly will employ advanced analytics in injury prevention and athletic performance: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260124068/seattle-hires-lorena-martin-to-direct-training/ Dr. Martin completed a three-year postdoctoral fellowship at the University of California, San Diego, where Jonah Dipoto, son of Seattle GM Dipoto, is a reliever on the Triton baseball team.
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When I noted the Dodger success since the trade you responded: "No thanks to CC, Beckett and even AGon." I noted their contributions to the string of five straight seasons of 90+ wins.. Dodger fans are probably too busy celebrating five consecutive NL West titles to dwell on an August 2012 trade. Red Sox fans, on the other hand, could comfort themselves in the last-place seasons of 2014 and 2015 by pointing to the 2013 World Series crown and the money saved in the 2012 trade with the Dodgers. I question whether there was a strong connection between the August 2012 trade and the 2013 World Series title. The Sox won the lottery of the mid-range free agent market in the 2012-13 offseason with the signings of Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes and Koji Uehara. Each far exceeded expectations which, coupled with Boston Strong, made 2013 a special season.
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All I wrote was that the Dodgers "survived" the trade by advancing to the postseason five straight years with contributions from Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez in some of those years. The trade was not the Dodger disaster some Red Sox fans make it out to be. Since the trade, the Dodgers have posted a 491-355 (.580) regular-season record while the Red Sox have posted a 441-405 (.521) record with two last-place finishes. Boston fans can continue their long-standing tradition of dissing departed Red Sox players but Carl Crawford earned his 2013 and 2014 salaries with the Dodgers, according to fWAR salary conversion: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1201&position=OF#value ... before resembling the Pablo Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez of recent years.
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Carl Crawford posted seasons of 2.8 and 2.6 fWAR for the Dodgers while Adrian Gonzalez posted seasons of 2.9, 3.6 and 3.9 fWAR for the Blue. The 2017 American League East champions had only two position players post at least 2.4 fWAR.
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The 2013 Red Sox season was an outlier.
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The Astros' story from back when: https://www.si.com/longform/astros/index.html
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The Dodgers survived with five straight postseason berths with at least 91 wins each season, including 104 wins this year.
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The MLBTR predictions would add $44 million AAV to the Ref Sox payroll.
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The MLB Trade Rumors predictions have the Red Sox signing free agents J.D. Martinez, Logan Morrison and Bryan Shaw: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html
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I thought the sarcasm emoji pointed to the tongue-in-cheek nature of my response.