harmony

I suspect every offer -- whether from the team or from the player -- has an expiration date: ie, this offer will remain open until X date. That leaves open the possibility that parties will resume negotiations down the road if the market changes. I don't doubt Scott Boras and the Red Sox have exchanged offers on J.D. Martinez. If Martinez signs with the Red Sox -- still a distinct possibility -- Boras will likely lower his current demands while the Red Sox enhance their best-to-date offer. Reviewing projected team payrolls, I wonder whether Martinez will sign with a team that has money to spend, a club such as the Phillies, White Sox or Brewers.

A Yankee blogger offers an odd pairing in this lengthy critique of the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox: https://yanksgoyard.com/2017/12/30/yankees-avoid-missteps-redsox-mariners/

Off topic, but the Red Sox and my Seattle Mariners are well-represented on this Baseball Prospectus list of Top 50 "busted" prospects: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/36851/best-bp-2017-top-50-busted-prospects/

For all we know the Red Sox opening offer to J.D. Martinez could have been considered "an absolute joke." Remember the reported offer to Jon Lester. It's the nature of negotiations for one side to start high and the other side low.

If that is true teams that previously thought they could not afford J.D. Martinez might enter the bidding. A competent agent might cold-call teams to say the top offer is five years and $125 million. If another club or clubs decide to top that offer, the team with the original top offer may up its bid ... or not. The negotiations almost certainly will resolve before players are due to report to Spring Training.

Would the deal make sense with the addition of two 29-year-old former Red Sox draftees: San Francisco reliever Hunter Strickland and Boston outfielder Bryce Brentz? Strickland comes with four years of team control and Brentz with six years. The thin Giant bullpen probably can’t afford to lose Strickland. Four years of lefty reliever Josh Osich might be a likelier target. Or two years of southpaw Will Smith, who is projected with a 2018 salary of $2.5 million in his return after missing the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery.

The vesting option remains intact in a trade; Hanley Ramirez cannot be stripped of contract rights. My understanding is that if the Red Sox designate Ramirez for assignment, the 2019 vesting option is the responsibility of the team that signs Ramirez at the league minimum with the Red Sox picking up only the balance of his 2018 salary. I doubt the surplus value of Jackie Bradley Jr. over the surplus value of Jeff Samardzija is enough to persuade the Giants to take on Ramirez.

Think of it as three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. with a projected 2018 salary of $5.9 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.0 for three years of Jeff Samardzija at $57.5 million and a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.5. Then think of one year of Hanley Ramirez at $22 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 1.0 (and the 2019 option vesting) for four years of Brandon Belt at $64 million with a Steamer projected 2018 WAR of 3.1. I can't see the Giants making that deal.

As I wrote last night on a Yankee forum: http://www.nyyfansforum.com/showthread.php/137667-The-197M-thread./page6 I doubt the San Francisco Giants will trade their core players, especially in a deal involving Hanley Ramirez. On the Yankee forum I've proposed a trade of Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Warren and either Billy McKinney or Jake Cave for Mark Melancon and ... Pablo Sandoval! The Giants should insist on two years of Aaron Hicks instead of six years of either McKinney or Cave.

That's why I cited the Fielding Bible where 10 different individuals who follow baseball subjectively submit their votes, sometimes based on observation, sometimes on metrics and I suspect often on a combination of both.

Xander Bogaerts was not among the 21 shortstops who received votes in this year's Fielding Bible awards: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp Bogaerts finished 11th among shortstops in 2015 but has been shut out in all other years: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2015.asp The Fielding Bible uses a panel of 10 baseball "experts" to rank defenders at each position: http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-panel.asp Each expert lists the his/its top 10 defenders at each position, with a player getting 10 points for being ranked No. 1 by an expert and 1 point for being ranked No. 10: http://www.fieldingbible.com/about-the-fielding-bible.asp

Baseball Reference provides these eerily similar 2018 projections for Xander Bogaerts and Seattle shortstop Jean Segura: XB 589 PA, 13 HR, .292/.354/.433/.786 JS 552 PA, 13 HR, .292/.340/.437/.777 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml Over the past two seasons Bogaerts has posted 8.1 fWAR. valued at $54.3 million, in 305 games while Segura has posted 7.9 fWAR, valued at $53 million, in 278 games. Segura, who is two-and-half years older than Bogaerts, remains under team control for five seasons at $70 million, with a team option for a sixth year, while Bogaerts is under team control for two seasons with a projected 2018 salary of $7.6 million. Each faded in the second half of 2017: 1st Half XB 82 G, 351 PA, .303/.359/.447/.806 JS 60 G, 273 PA, .349/.390/.482/.872 2nd Half XB 66 G, 284 PA, .235/.324/.347/.671 JS 65 G, 293 PA, .253/.311/.375/.686 Nevertheless, Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 3.5 for Bogaerts and 2.1 for Segura: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

I suspect neither Jackie Bradley Jr. nor Andrew Benintendi would be enough to land Chris Archer.

The Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine-year, $214 million contract on January 26, 2012. Dave Dombrowski was the general manager of the Tigers and Scott Boras was the agent for Fielder. Some say Boras went above Dombrowski's head to Detroit owner Mike Illitch: https://www.sbnation.com/2012/1/25/2732532/prince-fielder-scott-boras-detroit-tigers Here is an Over the Monster piece that appeared a month before the David Price signing: https://www.overthemonster.com/2015/11/9/9676776/dave-dombrowski-john-henry-red-sox-free-agency-trades

The Red Sox sign former top prospect Mike Olt to a minor league contract: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oltmi01.shtml

A blogger discusses potential trade destinations for Jackie Bradley Jr.: http://thesportsdaily.com/chin-music-baseball/jackie-bradley-jr-mlb-trade-rumors-giants-white-sox-royals/

Steamer projects Jackie Bradley Jr. with a 2018 WAR of 3.0 in 571 plate appearances while FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Bradley at 3.2 WAR in 631 plate appearances: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12984&position=OF Baseball Reference projects Bradley with a 2018 slash line of .255/.336/.450/.786 in 534 plate appearance but apparently makes no projection that includes defense: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlja02.shtml

We can hope for the best but what are the chances that all five make it through the season without a stint on the disabled list? Especially with the 10-day disabled list, I'd put the over/under at 3 on the number of combined DL stints for those five players.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Jaime Garcia with a two-year, $16 million contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron projected Garcia with a two-year, $20 million contract while the FanGraphs median crowdsource same in at three years and $36 million: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-top-50-free-agents/ Neither MLB Trade Rumors nor FanGraphs projected Anibal Sanchez.

Based largely on minor league numbers, Steamer projects slash lines for prospects even with a projection of only one plate appearance. Here are the 2018 for Clint Frazier and Michael Chavis (who is less than one year younger than Frazier): CF .247/.312/.434/.746, wRC+ 96 MC .247/.295/.439/.734, wRC+ 88 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15983&position=OF http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

For what it's worth, with the Red Sox, Hanley Ramirez has posted 1.2 bWAR in 387 games, Pablo Sandoval a negative 2.1 bWAR in 161 games, Adrian Gonzalez 9.9 bWAR in 282 games and Carl Crawford with 0.6 bWAR in 161 games.

J.D. Martinez and Hanley Ramirez provide interesting comps. Ramirez, who was seven months older than Martinez's current age when he signed with the Red Sox, had posted 11.2 fWAR in 371 games over the three previous seasons. J.D. Martinez has posted 10.6 fWAR in 397 games over the past three seasons.

Boston remains the most likely landing spot for J.D. Martinez. The issues are the price and duration of his contract. A short-term gain could come with a long-term detriment. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval as the top two hitters in the 2014-15 free agent class: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html ... while ranking J.D. Martinez as the top hitter in this year's lackluster free agent class: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

According to the Boston Herald article, Steven Wright's case was "retired" but not dismissed in the Tennessee court. I don't know how Tennessee handles domestic violence cases but my jurisdiction offers a deferred sentencing program for select first-time offenders. Under the program the accused pleads guilty but sentencing is postponed to give the individual to opportunity to complete domestic violence treatment. The case is dismissed upon successful completion of treatment. An accused may choose the deferred sentencing program for several reasons. He (or she) may think he or she is innocent of all charges but worries that a judge or jury might decide otherwise. He or she may welcome the treatment for his or her inappropriate behavior even if he or she thinks the prosecutor cannot prove each element of each crime. Or he or she might agree that he or she is guilty of all charges but views deferred sentencing as a means of avoiding a conviction and its collateral consequences (including loss of the right to carry a gun). I have no idea where Steven Wright falls on that continuum (if he does at all). But the MLB investigators may look favorably upon Wright if he promptly and voluntarily entered such a program. Or not.

Yonder Alonso, who is 30 years old, has posted 5.7 fWAR in 806 career games, including 2.4 fWAR in 142 games this year. Mitch Moreland, who is 32 years old, has posted 5.1 fWAR in 922 career games, including 0.9 fWAR in 149 games this year. Steamer projects 2018 WAR of 1.0 in 122 games for Alonso and 1.2 in 138 games for Moreland: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2530&position=1B