harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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I'm not a betting person but in the J.D. Martinez sweepstakes I might bet on the field over the Red Sox signing the reputed top free agent hitter. Thoughts?
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Even if the Red Sox don't have the current best offer? I don't know the current offers, but that could be a reasonable strategy for the Red Sox. As an unrelated side note, a blogger disputes the "cliff": https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/1/10/16871560/red-sox-two-year-window-myth-betts-sale-benintendi-devers-bogaerts
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Perhaps the Red Sox have walked away after J.D. Martinez rejected their best offer. The bidding may be down to two or more clubs that don't include the Red Sox. Or not.
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I'm not convinced that anyone said J.D. Martinez wants to play outfield and not designated hitter. The MLB Trade Rumors aggregate story on December 15 provided mixed signals: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/j-d-martinez-rumors-wednesday.html ... and I can no longer access the archived Boston Herald column that suggested Martinez "is informing potential suitors that he would prefer to sign as an outfielder." I suspect the bidding did not stop after that report three weeks ago. Just last Friday Jon Heyman reported (without attribution) that Martinez has other five-year offers: https://www.fanragsports.com/inside-baseball-where-top-10-mlb-free-agents-stand-in-slow-market/ Bids are secret in that a vast majority are withheld from the media and public. The Hot Stove may be slow but it will interesting to see how the offseason plays out.
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Do the Red Sox even have the current best offer for J.D. Martinez? What if another team has the current best offer and Martinez is waiting for the Red Sox (or another club) to top it?
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What if Scott Boras is waiting for Red Sox to top another team's current top bid for J.D. Martinez?
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In 2015 Carson Smith's average fastball of 92.9 mph ranked 12th on the Seattle pitching staff: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d In 2017 Smith's average fastball of 92.0 mph ranked 15th on the Red Sox: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d
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Most teams hype their acquisitions. The Mariners tried to hype Wade Miley but many critical M's fans weren't buying it.
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Carson Smith never threw smoke as his average fastball of 92.9 mph was just that ... average. Smith relied heavily on his slider, perhaps to his physical detriment.
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A wide range of outcomes are possible for Carson Smith, a 28-year-old righthander with a single, but impressive, full MLB season three years ago. At the time the trade was celebrated as a coup for the Red Sox but the deal has yet to pay noteworthy dividends. I hope Carson Smith has a great career after injuries limited the reliever to 9.1 MLB innings (18 innings overall) the past two seasons.
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Feel free to remove from the comparison Ariel Miranda's 0.1 fWAR and 1.9 bWAR.
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I suspect the Mariners would prefer five years of Ariel Miranda to three years of Carson Smith and four years of Roenis Elias (even after Seattle's early lead in WAR production). Seattle waived Jonathan Aro in November. Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project Carson Smith with a 2018 ERA of 3.81 in 65 innings for 0.8 and 0.5 WAR, respectively: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P Just as the Red Sox traded high on Wade Miley, the Mariners probably traded high on Carson Smith. A good trade should benefit each team.
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Removing Ariel Miranda from the equation, the trade has generated 0.6 bWAR for the Mariners and a negative 0.1 bWAR for the Red Sox. Since the trade Carson Smith has posted 0.2 fWAR, Roenis Elias a negative 0.2 fWAR, Wade Miley 0.6 fWAR for the Mariners, Jonathan Aro 0.0 fWAR and Ariel Miranda 0.1 fWAR for the Mariners.
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The Red Sox get three more years of Carson Smith, who has posted 0.3 bWAR in 11 appearances with the Red Sox since the trade. The Sox also have four years of Roenis Elias, who has posted a negative 0.4 bWAR in four appearances, including one start. Wade Miley posted 0.5 bWAR in 19 starts for the Mariners before being traded for Ariel Miranda, who remains under team control for five seasons after posting 1.9 bWAR in 42 appearances, including 39 starts, since his trade. Seattle also has six years of Jonathan Aro, who posted 0.1 bWAR in a single appearance with the Mariners. Carson Smith may help the Red Sox play catch-up in that trade of Miley and Aro for Smith and Elias.
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Or at the league minimum Blake Swihart could be a backup catcher with upside.
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That assumes that the Red Sox are the only (or preferred) suitor for J.D. Martinez.
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The technology has evolved: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/sports/baseball/general-managers-texting.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
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The current MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement no longer permits a team to exclude for luxury tax calculations the AAV salary of a player who has been outrighted off the 40-man roster: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2018/01/boston_red_soxs_rusney_castill_13.html#incart_river_index ... although Rusney Castillo's status is not affected because he was outrighted before ratification of the new CBA. However, if Castillo is called up and then outrighted, his salary counts through 2020.
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When Toronto plays in Seattle the Blue Jay fans are louder than the Mariner fans (and may come close to outnumbering the local fans).
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I learned of the prank from a post on a Yankee forum (the post identified it as a prank).
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PRANK ALERT ... from Dave Dombrowski's Wikipedia page: "In the offseason before the 2018 season, Dombrowski sent star outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr, pitching prospect Brian Johnson and a prospect TBA for Christian Yelich of the Miami Marlins, passing on possible free agent target JD Martinez in order to keep the team younger and save money for the 2018/2019 offseason." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Dombrowski It makes no sense and deserves no weight.
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https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/01/05/dodgers-floated-idea-jackie-bradley-yasel-puig-trade/mS2zrExiNvaDP4Ke2zIPII/story.html?p1=Team_LeadArticle
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Dave Dombrowski and Scott Boras are competent professionals who I suspect will retain mutual respect even if they fail to close a deal this offseason.
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I'm nearly eight years older than Bean: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=string001tho
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Scott Boras turned 65 years old in November: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=boras-001sco He's less than three years older than I am ... and a lot richer.