harmony

Thank you for the kind thoughts.

How about a comp with Seattle righthander Mike Leake, who is one year older (and seven inches shorter) than Rick Porcello? This year's bWAR and fWAR are contrasting: RP 0.3 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR ML 1.8 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR* Apparently value is in the eye of the beholder. For their careers: RP 325 G, 321 GS, 1943.2 IP, 101 ERA+, 18.9 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR ML 283 G, 278 GS, 1720.2 IP, 99 ERA+, 14.4 bWAR, 17.3 fWAR* Following the 2015 season the St. Louis Cardinals signed Leake to a five-year, $80 million contract. In 106 starts since (not counting Sunday), Leake had posted 7.9 fWAR, valued at $63 million, over nearly three and a half seasons. Four months later the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5 million extension that covered his first four free agent seasons. In 113 starts since, Porcello has posted 10.5 fWAR, valued at $84.5 million, including his Cy Young 2016 season. Since the start of the 2017 season, Porcello and Leake (and David Price) have each posted 5.4 fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=&page=2_30 Some have suggested that Leake's contract is under water with roughly a net $27 million owed through the 2020 season. Feedback is welcome. * the numbers do not include Leake's 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 7 K, 0 BB performance on Sunday

Seattle fans nearly universally celebrate the Robinson Cano trade. Cano and Diaz have combined for 0.2 fWAR for the Mets while the Mariners have enjoyed signficant salary relief. The prize, however, was 19-year-old outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=keleni000jar The Mariners flipped reliever Anthony Swarzak for a lottery ticket in four and a half years of lefthander Jesse Biddle, who has struggled this season after posting a 3.11 ERA in 60 appearances with Atlanta last year.

You might be right that the next Mariner traded could be Mike Leake, who as I write on Sunday has surrendered two earned runs over seven innings to lower his season ERA to 4.14. Leake, who this year has gone at least six innings in 12* of his 15 starts, is a less expensive (and much shorter) version of Rick Porcello. Leake and Porcello entered today's games with season ERA+ of 101 and 100, respectively. A durable if unspectacular innings-eater takes pressure off a team's bullpen. * Leake went five innings in each of his three other starts

I suspect Seattle is trying to clear its roster of players who don't remain under contract beyond this "stepped-back" season. The residual heart of the team remains under control through these seasons: C Navarez 2022, Murphy 2023 1B Healy 2022 2B Gordon 2020 (2021 team option), Long 2025 SS Crawford 2023 3B Seager 2021 (2022 option) OF Haniger 2022 OF Smith 2022 OF Santana 2021 DH Vogelbach 2024 SP Gonzales 2023 SP Kikuchi 2022+ SP Leake 2020 (2021 option) SP LeBlanc 2019/2020/2021/2022 RP Strickland 2021 RP Elias 2021 RP Biddle 2022 RP Brennan 2025 RP Festa 2025 RP Tuivailala 2022 The Mariners have six prospects ranked among the current Top 100 at MLB Prospect Watch: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects The M's can watch those players develop -- or not -- and add complementary pieces after the clearing of payroll space since the 2018 season. Without a World Series appearance in its 43-season history, the Seattle franchise will continue to endure the ridicule of many fans. However, the cerebral fan might find the current strategy interesting.

How is tanking defined? The NBA and NFL have suspected tanking in that the resulting high draft picks often can improve a team almost immediately. The NBA addressed the issue with the lottery system. But in baseball the top draft picks don't come with the high success rate of their NBA and NFL counterparts. Success is tied to player development after the draft. What does an MLB team gain by "tanking," whatever that is?

Nearly every franchise has its embarrassments.

With three winning seasons in the last five, Seattle abstained from a full-fledged sell-off of assets until last offseason. This year the Mariners appear intent on breaking their tie with the Red Sox for the most last-place finishes this decade.

The Seattle Mariners probably still have the fifth-best cumulative record in the American League since late September 2016 when general manager Jerry Dipoto took over the troubled franchise with the worst farm system. Coming off an 89-win season last year, the Mariners took the radical move of "re-imaging" the club with the understanding that the 2019 season would be a "step back." The anticipated reality has set in after the surprising 13-2 start. The strategy is more interesting than engineering another close-but-no-postseason finish. The plan may well fail but I'll withhold judgment until after the 2021 season.

In the broader picture ... Some people cheer for the rich to maintain their wealth. Others cheer for the poor to improve their station in life. Guess who falls into the latter camp?

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19331-When-does-DD-push-the-panic-button/page17

Perhaps Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto preferred 19-year-old righthander Juan Then to 20-year-old righthanded Red Sox prospect Brayan Bello: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bello-001bra https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=then--000jua http://soxprospects.com/players/bello-brayan.htm Or not. That's the closest comp I could find.

Calm down. One some level the trade signals the Yankees' respect for the Red Sox threat this year.

From USA Today baseball writer Bob Nightengale: For what it's worth, this Seattle fan is OK with the return although I had hoped the Mariners would pay down the contract more to get a better prospect. Welcome back to the Seattle organization, Juan Then.

Over the Monster wrote about the updated Baseball America prospect rankings, which have Triston Casas and Jarren Duran at No. 98 and No. 99, respectively: https://www.overthemonster.com/2019/6/13/18677315/two-red-sox-prospects-land-on-baseball-americas-updated-top-100

That would push Bobby Dalbec's MLB debut past his 25th birthday. Dalbec is striking out in about 26 percent of his plate appearances in Double A this year as the Seattle native approaches his 24th birthday this month. On a positive note, the strikeout rate is down from the 30+ percent rate of previous seasons. Steamer projects that Dalbec would strike out in 33 percent of his plate appearances at the MLB level: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa857701&position=3B

We're in agreement on that point.

How highly and where? As of June 4 Triston Casas was only "on the cusp of the Top 100" at Baseball America despite being the top-ranked prospect at SoxProspects: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/two-top-100-prospects-highlight-2019-south-atlantic-league-all-star-rosters/ http://soxprospects.com/ It's a minor factor, but first baseman Triston Casas and outfielder Jarren Duran play positions where Seattle has organizational depth.

No and no. Seattle would lose a year of team control in the swap of Domingo Santana and Jackie Bradley Jr. (who is not under team control through the target 2021 season). The Mariners would have little interest in the spare parts of a lowly ranked farm system: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-26-prospects-boston-red-sox/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pre-draft-farm-system-rankings/

Seattle has Edwin Encarnacion under contract. How to the Red Sox pry Encarnacion away from the Mariners? A package headed by Boston prospect Bobby Dalbec would be unlikely to land Seattle infielder Tim Beckham.

Perhaps Seattle could pay full freight in sending Edwin Encarnacion to the Astros for a good prospect package. Houston was a rumored eventual destination when the Mariners acquired Encarnacion last December. The Astros have the prospects whom the Red Sox lack. Encarnacion is most valuable to a club looking for that last piece to push the team over the top. That club might be the Astros. Or not. The Astros have a robust team OPS+ of 119* despite an OPS+ of 85 from first baseman Yuli Gurriel and an OPS+ of 74 from designated hitter Tyler White. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2019.shtml There might be a fit for Encarnacion. * Houston has a team ERA+ of 124

MLB Trade Rumors asks: Is there a trade market for Edwin Encarnacion? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/is-there-a-trade-market-for-edwin-encarnacion.html

After posting a 103-58 regular-season record and winning the 2016 World Series, the highly regarded 2017 Chicago Cubs were 34-34 after 68 games en route to a 92-70 record and an eventual berth in the National League Championship Series. Perhaps it's too early to push the panic button. Or not.

Thank you for the update. The current rankings apparently are not available without a Baseball America subscription. Who are the two ranked Red Sox prospects?