harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox a 5 percent chance of winning the World Series: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ ... while FanGraphs gives the Sox a 5.1 percent chance of winning the World Series: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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To be precise, the Red Sox save $360,000 if they replace Blake Swihart's 2019 salary of $910,000 with another player's league-minimum salary of $550,000.
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That is one of several reasonable interpretations. Last year at High A, Marcus Wilson struck out in 28.1 percent of his 502 plate appearances en route to a wRC+ of 84: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828703&position=OF
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The annual Jackie Bradley Jr thread (2019 Edition)
harmony replied to Station 13's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
For what it's worth, I am not a Red Sox fan. Since the start of the 2015 season, Jackie Bradley Jr. has ranked 20th among all outfielders in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Those are not the numbers of a fourth outfielder. -
The annual Jackie Bradley Jr thread (2019 Edition)
harmony replied to Station 13's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Keep. Jackie Bradley Jr. remains among the most valuable Red Sox players. -
Nathan Eovaldi after four starts this year and Drew Pomeranz after four starts last year: NE 21.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 16 K, 11 BB, .266 BAA DP 20.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, 20 K, 8 BB, .288 BAA Pomeranz made eight starts in 2018 before landing on the disabled list with a 6.81 ERA.
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FiveThirtyEight offered an analysis today: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/um-the-red-sox-may-actually-be-in-trouble/ And from today's column by Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/04/18/what-red-sox-don-turn-around/nuA94FwrdflazY2KJ6OvZL/story.html Sports Illustrated offers its take: https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/04/18/red-sox-yankees-al-east-standings
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The unexpected is what makes baseball seasons interesting.
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Despite Wednesday's disappointing loss, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight give the Red Sox 50.9 percent and 37 percent chances, respectively, of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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Blake Swihart, the No. 26 pick in the 2011 draft, has advanced further than most No. 26 picks over the past two decades: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=26&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_jc=0&from_type_hs=0&from_type_4y=0&from_type_unk=0 The fruitful years for No. 26 picks were 1976 and 1977.
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In the nearly eight years since he was drafted as a catcher, Blake Swihart has played 477 professional games, including 432 starts, at catcher. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=swihar000bla
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In June 2011 the Red Sox drafted Blake Swihart as a catcher: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2011/drafttracker.jsp ... after Swihart started catching during his junior year in high school: http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/34578/prospect-swihart-catching-on-quickly Don't blame Swihart for being overhyped.
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I wish Blake Swihart the best but I'm with moonslav59 on this assessment.
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I have it tickled on my calendar.
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As of the moment I write this, FanGraphs and FiveThirtyEight each give the Red Sox a 40 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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What are the odds that Blake Swihart will go unclaimed and then optioned to Pawtucket?
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It's all good.
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It's way too early to make any predictions. But my team currently has a 6.5-point lead in a 10-team, 10-category mixed roto league with a $305 budget and 27 roster slots (plus five injured slots). After deducting $40 in keeper salaries, I spent $260 of the $265 available at the auction. Of the $260 spent at the auction, $115 now resides on the injured list, including a combined $95 for Trea Turner, Gary Sanchez and Justin Upton. However, the ultimate winner in this league, in its 29th season, is rarely the first-place team on April 16. Today my team lost Blake Snell to the injured list.
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My post was evidence of how highly I and another fantasy owner value Chris Sale (and Rafael Devers). Is that trolling?
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Not as long as my team has a comfortable lead behind the (mostly) fast starts of Cody Bellinger, Pete Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion, Daniel Vogelbach and Joey Gallo, who are all eligible at first base.
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I have not given up on Chris Sale. Today in my fantasy league, I offered the retainable $4 contract of Pete Alonso and the retainable $1 contract of Brandon Woodruff for the expiring $47 contract of Chris Sale and the retainable $2 contract of Rafael Devers. My offer was promptly rejected.
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Of the 117 innings the Red Sox have played this year only 12 ended with the Sox in the lead. The Red Sox are fortunate that four of those inning-ending leads came in the ninth inning of games. In three of the four wins the Sox came back from deficits of five, three and five runs. The Red Sox are 3-0 in starts by righthander Nathan Eovaldi, who has an ERA of 8.40 in 15 innings. The Sox could gain ground this weekend against the one American League team with a worse run differential.
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With Thursday evening's win, the Red Sox playoff chances are back up to 50 percent at FiveThirtyEight: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ ... and 68.1 percent at FanGraphs Playoff Odds: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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As of late Thursday evening (early Friday morning EDT), 538 gave the Red Sox a 48 percent chance of advancing to the 2019 postseason: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
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Of the 108 innings the Red Sox have played this year, only 11 have ended with the Sox in the lead. Of course on the road the Red Sox had a few more leads mid-inning but were unable to protect the lead in the bottom of the inning.