harmony

Anonymous posters to a baseball forum get confirmation from recognized quantitative sources.

Or the worst chances of repeating as divisional champs: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2018-standings.shtml

FiveThirtyEight gives the Red Sox an 11 percent chance of repeating as American League East champs: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ ... while FanGraphs lists the Red Sox chances at 8.2 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Entering this season with one year and 165 days of MLB service, Hunter Renfroe should be a Super Two after this season with four more years of team control. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/renfrhu01.shtml

Any interest in two-and-a-half years of former Red Sox farmhand Roenis Elias, a 30-year-old lefthander who this season is averaging 9.3 K/9 with nine saves in 31 appearances out of the Seattle bullpen? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eliasro01.shtml Elias, who has a 2019 salary of only $910,000, barely fits into the Mariners' targeted 2021 season.

What does it mean to go "on record"? https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2019-06-13/padres-hunter-renfroe-trade-deadline-franmil-reyes

If the Red Sox are no longer in the race, their strategy changes as well. The Red Sox have the advantage of playing in the same division as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays while the Texas Rangers play in the more balanced AL West. FiveThirtyEight projects the AL East to finished a cumulative 16 games below .500 (despite the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox) while projecting the AL West to finish a cumulative 26 games above .500: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/ The updated ZiPS projections find a similar disparity between the two divisions: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-almost-midseason-update-american-league/ The AL West may have the tougher interleague asssignment this year with the NL Central while the AL East gets the NL West.

The occasionally updated MLB Prospect Watch list has Estevan Florial at No. 48 and Jonathan Loaisiga at No. 98: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=nyy

Former Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez is a sidelined rental but the righthander is not the Seattle icon the Red Sox reportedly targeted 10 years ago: https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/sources-mariners-nixed-three-way-felix-hernandez-trade-sending-padres-slugger-adrian-gonzalez-to-seattle/ :) Seattle innings-eater Mike Leake would take pressure off the Red Sox bullpen but the net $19 million remaining on his contract through 2020 could be a deterrent (and there's no guarantee that Leake would waive his no-trade provision to head East).

A half game out of the second Wild Card slot, the Texas Rangers are unlikely to trade a year and a half of their ace.

Rick Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 was a clear outlier in the righthander's 11-season career. Since the start of the 2017 season Porcello ranks 46th* among all starters in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&page=2_30 Which has value. * not counting Monday's stellar performance, which should lift Porcello into a tie with Seattle righthander Mike Leake

My saves-poor fantasy team had Blake Parker in the lineup and Ryan Brasier on the bench.

My property professor in law school was a huge Red Sox fan who worked into his lecture on the Rule Against Perpetuities the image of Dennis Eckersley pitching in the 88th inning. The rule was violated if a property interest was not guaranteed to vest "within the lives in being." In other words, an interest that would vest at the end of the Red Sox season in 1980 violated the rule because Eckersley theoretically could pitch into perpetuity.

That was my minor disappointment. I've gotten over it.

Especially to contenders.

FanGraphs gave the much-ballyhooed Bobby Dalbec a Future Value of 40+ as the Seattle native approaches his 24th birthday this month. The ceiling of a 19-year-old might be preferred over the ceiling of a nearly 24-year-old. Or not.

MLB Prospect Watch offers this report on Juan Then, who was born in 2000: "Then has successfully navigated two years of Rookie ball thanks to advanced pitchability. In his first season with his new organization, he led the Gulf Coast League in WHIP (0.98) and finished third in opponent average (.210). He was waiting to make his 2019 debut when he was sent back to the Mariners in June's Edwin Encarnacion deal." http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sea Juan Then may amount to nothing -- or something -- but Edwin Encarnacion did not fit into Seattle's long-range plans.

While the Red Sox were sweeping the now 21-50 Baltimore Orioles, my woeful Seattle Mariners were completing a 5-4 road trip against the Angels, Twins and Athletics, who are a combined 22 games above .500. A important series awaits the Red Sox in Minnesota.

Rick Porcello was drafted out of high school in 2007 while Mike Leake was drafted in 2009 following a successful college career at Arizona State.

Bingo ... and it's Dipoto with a lower-case p. My least favorite Mariners trade of recent years was the Jean Segura, James Pazos and Juan Nicasio* trade to Philadelphia for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. But Santana was flipped 10 days later to Cleveland for Edwin Encarnacion, who was traded Saturday for Juan Then, plus a competitive balance pick that was used earlier this month to select Arkansas righthander Isaiah Campbell. So the Segura trade has netted: 24-year-old shortstop J.P. Crawford, who has posted 0.6 fWAR in 20 games and preserved another year of team control after starting the season in the minors 19-year-old righthander Juan Then, whom I suspect was more highly regarded by Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto than by many posters on this forum 21-year-old Isaiah Campbell, the Arkansas righthander who followed up his dominant season in the powerful SEC with seven shutout innings (10 K) Saturday in the College World Series The Segura trade is starting to make more sense for a club with an eye for the future. * Segura has posted 1.5 fWAR in 61 games, Pazos was traded for a minor leaguer and Nicasio has posted 0.1 fWAR for his $9.25 million salary.

Like most new millennium* players who have never played above rookie leagues, Juan Then is slated to open the season at short-season Class A. The Yankees' short-season affiliate, the Staten Island Pizza Rats, opened their season Friday night as did Seattle's short-season affiliate, the Everett AquaSox. That's the season Juan Then has "missed." * born after January 1, 2000

Thank you for the kind thoughts.

How about a comp with Seattle righthander Mike Leake, who is one year older (and seven inches shorter) than Rick Porcello? This year's bWAR and fWAR are contrasting: RP 0.3 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR ML 1.8 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR* Apparently value is in the eye of the beholder. For their careers: RP 325 G, 321 GS, 1943.2 IP, 101 ERA+, 18.9 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR ML 283 G, 278 GS, 1720.2 IP, 99 ERA+, 14.4 bWAR, 17.3 fWAR* Following the 2015 season the St. Louis Cardinals signed Leake to a five-year, $80 million contract. In 106 starts since (not counting Sunday), Leake had posted 7.9 fWAR, valued at $63 million, over nearly three and a half seasons. Four months later the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5 million extension that covered his first four free agent seasons. In 113 starts since, Porcello has posted 10.5 fWAR, valued at $84.5 million, including his Cy Young 2016 season. Since the start of the 2017 season, Porcello and Leake (and David Price) have each posted 5.4 fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=&page=2_30 Some have suggested that Leake's contract is under water with roughly a net $27 million owed through the 2020 season. Feedback is welcome. * the numbers do not include Leake's 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 7 K, 0 BB performance on Sunday

Seattle fans nearly universally celebrate the Robinson Cano trade. Cano and Diaz have combined for 0.2 fWAR for the Mets while the Mariners have enjoyed signficant salary relief. The prize, however, was 19-year-old outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=keleni000jar The Mariners flipped reliever Anthony Swarzak for a lottery ticket in four and a half years of lefthander Jesse Biddle, who has struggled this season after posting a 3.11 ERA in 60 appearances with Atlanta last year.

You might be right that the next Mariner traded could be Mike Leake, who as I write on Sunday has surrendered two earned runs over seven innings to lower his season ERA to 4.14. Leake, who this year has gone at least six innings in 12* of his 15 starts, is a less expensive (and much shorter) version of Rick Porcello. Leake and Porcello entered today's games with season ERA+ of 101 and 100, respectively. A durable if unspectacular innings-eater takes pressure off a team's bullpen. * Leake went five innings in each of his three other starts