S5Dewey

This team has to get Sale some runs today. I don't want to leave Baltimore having lost the series 3-1, if only because the O's have two of the biggest dickheads in baseball, Showalter and Machado. And that has nothing to do with what's happened this year. Those guy guys were dickheads before!

IMO our problems this year are three-fold. I wasn't expecting to outscore our opponents by 100 runs this year but I was expecting better than middle of the pack offense. I thought we'd be in the top 2-3. I also expected that with the additions to our pitching staff that the staff's ERA would be significantly better this year, but it's not. I certainly did not expect that our defense would be as porous as it's been, even though most of those errors have been at 3B. We're currently 3 games back and IMO we've pissed away enough games with our errors at 3B to make up those three games. This team has flaws, there's no doubt about it, but IMO if we could solidify that 3B position both offensively and defensively those other flaws wouldn't be as significant.

I woudn't say that there are more (or fewer) flaws in UZR or in the simpler stats. I would say that there are flaws in both but the flaws are different. My position remains that the more subjectivity and the more moving parts there are in any statistic the more chance there is that the stat is flawed.

Yeah. I know. And that would suck. But what also would suck is having Sandoval platooning at 3B and averaging 1 error every 5 games, which is slightly better than he's done thus far. That fear that he may play well for someone else - along with his salary of course - are the only reasons he's still with the Sox at all. I'm just wondering if that's a rational fear.

I don't disagree with you at all, but sadly this is what's called "The business of baseball". It's also why this turned out to be such a dreadful signing. It's the business of baseball because the Sox have millions of dollars tied up in him and they want to get something in return for it, whether it's improved production or value in a trade. Unfortunately in order to get value in a trade he has to have proven improved production and the only way to prove it - or prove that he doesn't - is to play him. It's somewhat a Catch-22. They can't prove his skills have improved unless they play him and they shouldn't play him unless his skills have improved. I see this as Sandoval's last chance. As has been already established, his salary is sunk. If he can't be a contributor there's no point in keeping him on the bench occupying a roster spot that could be filled by a contributing player. But I do think we have to put ourselves in JH's spot for a minute and realize that he doesn't want to eat all of Sandoval's salary so he's going to play a game of trying to find out what Sandoval can do in the hope (against hope) that he can be good enough to be our regular 3B or someone else will eat a (small?) portion of his salary in the hope they can get value out of him. But I think I'm preaching to the choir here. We all already know this. It's ugly but it's what it is.

Because it's baseball where nothing is consistent. If it were consistent there would never be an out made once things got rolling. But momentum is a factor that can't be discountable just because it's not statistically quantifiable.

No, no, no! Haven't you been reading the posts in the forum? There's no such thing as momentum! What a batter does in any given AB is in no way dependent on what the batter before him did. ...except in the real world where people actually play the game, that is.

....And this is where it all falls apart for me. It's been my experience that the more variables there are in something the more likely it is to yield an inaccurate result. Now we're taking several people's cumulative opinions - each of whom may have different opinions - and treating it as if it's Gospel. Even WAR has a disclaimer saying (and I'm paraphrasing here) "We know this probably isn't accurate, but it's 'somewhere near'", but defensive metrics don't even have that! So what is the margin of error for WAR or defensive metrics? Is it 10%?, 20%, 25%?

What? Wait! I thought that in order to start a game thread a poster had to send Spudboy a $5 filing fee to get permission to do it.

And then we get into the unknowns of the issue, how many runs do those 1-2 "extra" plays he makes in a week save? Just last night we saw a SS mishandle a ball on a DP that cost his team 4 runs - and it wasn't even a charged error.

No problem. I wasn't aware that Craig only had less than 5 years of service time. Thanks

So why did we ever take him out of the 2 hole? And .... where do you get these obscure stats???? LOL

Am I overlooking something? I found this on line... Any player who has accrued 5 years of Major League service has earned the right to refuse any minor league assignment. If such a player exercises this right, his team must either reinstate the player to the active roster or grant him his unconditional release. If the player is released, the team is on the hook for the remainder of the player's contract. And in a related question, did Alan Craig agree to the Pawtucket assignment?

Yes. My bad.

JBJ does seem to produce better near the bottom of the order.

Don't it always seem to go, you don't know what you've got 'til it's gone Take paradise, put up a parking lot.

I kind of agree, but I don't see Johnson in the pen. IMO he'll be kept stretched out in Pawtucket and called up - and sent down - as is necessary.

I see Sam Travis as starting at 1B next year, Moreland is on a one year deal and as Nick points out, Travis will have a lot of years of team control left.

I will say this.. DD has a different approach than many GM's. He proved that when he gave the 3B position to Middlebrooks because Sandoval wasn't producing. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Sandoval out on his own by the AS break if he doesn't produce this time.

Ummm... Pablo... you can go home now.

I'm never sure how much of what you post is sarcasm, but I was with a group of friends last weekend and we all - to a man - agreed that Pedey's reputation took a big hit with his,"It's not me, it's them" comment. I understand that half a dozen guys standing around drinking beer is the ultimate in SSS but when it's unanimous..... :-(

IMO this is one of the drawbacks to our obsession with statistics. I've always had a feeling that if a person wanted to look for inconsistencies like the one Moon mentioned there are a lot of them to be found. It's why I'm skeptical about much of the advanced sabermetrics. Sometimes KISS is best.

It's funny... hot funny ha-ha, but funny sheezh... Price pitched almost exactly as I predicted but I feel better about his performance than I thought I would.

I don't think there's any doubt they miss Papi's bat I don't think there's any doubt that they knew they would. However, you don't just replace him with another one like him because there is no other one like him, at least not one who was available. And I'm very glad they didn't throw a lot of money at Encarnarcion. IMO this team is ok. There's more than one way to skin a cat. It doesn't have to be done with offense. Marrero has solved the defensive half of the problems at 3B and we've got Chris Freakin' Sale! and Sale alone can make up a portion of the loss of Papi. They're not as much fun to watch if you like watching players hit home runs - and who doesn't??. They probably won't outscore everyone else in the AL by 100 runs this year but their pitching and defense can carry this team a long way.

I actually like where this team is right now. We're 4 games over .500 and in second place in the AL East, 3 games back of the EE. Sure, it could be better but it could also be one Hell of a lot worse. Let's see what happens. It's been said that a winning team has three stages. The first 1/3 of the season is spent identifying weaknesses, the second 1/3 is remedying those weaknesses, and the third 1/3 is playing up to their potential. We're 1/3 of the way through the season. We'll know more by the AS break.