S5Dewey

We've got three teams on track to win over 100 games this year. There's been some chatter here about how the competition level in MLB is down this year. While I don't have any stats to back this up I've been wondering if that's a byproduct of having a few teams that are better than normal and they're making everyone else look worse, both in their record and when comparing during-game performances. It's like putting JDM in our outfield. He's not a "bad" outfielder - until you compare him to our three regular outfielders.

Several years ago there was talk about having a pro football team in Las Vegas and one of the names suggested for the teams was the Las Vegas Posse. Then some wag said to wait until they lose three in a row and see what the fans call them then!

I had enough of that guy in "that other chat room" to last me, thanks. Strangely enough, he's a really nice guy in real life. Go figure.

Yep. And that will project to a maximum WAR of ~7.0 or a minimum WAR of ~5.0, all of which are statistically the same number because of that nasty margin of error. IOW that entire discussion with Bell was a waste of time. You two were talking about what could be the same number (within the margin of error) and didn't know it! LOL

According to Fangraphs WAR "might" be as much as ~17% off. That's a pretty significant margin of error! I'm really just having a little fun with this. It's interesting that in the original debate Bell was saying that Bogaerts WAR for this year would project to be ~6.0, Harmony was saying that it could be as low as 5.3, and Fangraphs says that due to the margin of error both of them might be right because due to the margin of error, statistically they're the same number! LOL

Here's another take on Fangraphs and WAR that I found interesting... A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR,... If one can say that a 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR is it also equally as fair to say that he might not? IOW according to Fangraphs it could be anything! People wonder why I'm skeptical about WAR. Hah!

My sweet God you're a pain in the ass. You'll stop at nothing to be right, or if you can't be right, at least obtuse. Ok, have it your way. This is from FANGRAPH'S explanation of WAR: [emphasis mine] WAR is not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a player’s contribution, but rather an estimate of their value to date. Given the imperfections of some of the available data and the assumptions made to calculate other components, WAR works best as an approximation. A 6 WAR player might be worth between 5.0 and 7.0 WAR,... Happy now?

The unifying power of humor. Edit: Btw, this reminds me of a friend who always insisted on being right about everything and also insisted that a particular player had torn his labia. I didn't even bother.... I just let him continue to make a fool of himself.

Actually... .things like humor and sarcasm don't carry well on line. Hence a lot of misunderstandings.

That you are!!!

Hey, I was just fantasizing a bit. There's also the risk of straining an oblique with some of those swings they use in the HR Derby!

As a comedian once said, "If I tell a joke and you don't laugh it doesn't mean it wasn't funny. It means you didn't get it".

And while he's having his little pissing contest about whether Bogaerts will end up at 5.3, 5.9, or 6.0 he might also want to read the preamble where BR admits that it's not an exact science. So inexact in fact that they don't include a margin of error.

Ya! That's what I'm talking about!!

Not at all replacing, supplementing. But like I said, it'll never happen. Defensive skills don't get the glamour that hitting HR's does. For me, I'd rather see Mookie throw a runner out trying to go from 1st to 3rd than see him hit a HR. Not that there's anything wrong with a HR.

Meh. I didn't watch it, but then again I'm a defense guy. Now, if they want to have something like they do in Punt, Pass, Kick where outfielders try to make accurate throws from the OF to home plate or 2B I'd watch that! I know I'm in the minority there so it'll never happen though. Chicks and everyone else digs the long ball.

That may or may not be, but they're not available to The Boston Red Sox.

It amazes me how some posters can't seem to wait for a player to fail just so they can say "I told you so!".

Just the thought of "Big Game James" makes me shudder. And then I think of what Mick Jagger said, "You can't always get what you want, but....."

...and then there's a third position. It is never acceptable for a team with the payroll of the Red Sox to finish last and it's the responsibility of the GM to see that it doesn't happen. I recognize that there are a lot of things - including luck - that go into winning the WS so frequent WSC championships aren't a realistic expectation but they should be respectable during their down years, using those years to to reload for a real pennant run. I'm not interested in hearing "Wait 'til next year" year after year. I believe that when the FO sees that this may be THE YEAR they should pull out all the stops to win while retaining a core group of players that will make them respectable in coming years. They should identify those players and attempt to do what it takes to keep them. At this moment I see those players as Betts, Benintendi, possibly Bogaearts, and Sale. We're in the midst of a big run right now. I'm not advocating blowing the team up while retaining those four when this run is over but at the same time IMO everyone else should available for trade to one extent or another. In short, look at your talent, decide when your best chances are, and make that run while you can. Then reload and give it another shot. But this business of having 25 years of "Wait til next year" smacks of the FO not being necessary to do what they need to in order to win as long as the fannies are in the seats that the money pipeline is flowing.

S5Dewey mojo @ the game on Sunday! I'm predicting a big win and JBJ with two hits.

Ouch. That's going to leave a mark!

In fairness to Stork, he didn't say WHEN the Sox would have 86 wins. I think he meant it would happen by Labor day.

Yeah, but very few of the meaningful ones. OTOH, his being gone may lure a few more posters back.

I knew I couldn't improve on the punchline so I just let it rest.