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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    So even if Wacha isn’t the example, you’ve still shown that 3rd time through the lineup is worse for more pitchers. I looked at career numbers, too, but (especially with Hill) that leaves the problem of weighing innings from a long time ago equal to today. And for Hill and Wacha (and probably Eovaldi), they’re likely not. Obviously they saw something in Wacha they liked, because so far he looks like a steal. Ditto for Hill. And it really didn’t even seem like strong analytics to think a pitcher would be less effective third time through the lineup. Hitters are more familiar and the pitcher is more tired. The logic is simple. But the flaw is relying on the bullpen to be more effective. And lately for the Sox, the bullpen has been volatile. This is likely to be something that happens too often if they keep relying on the pen for 4 innings every game, a situation exacerbated by the ridiculous usage of Houck as a piggyback for one pitcher only.
  2. notin
    Those numbers are over 67 PA. Career numbers are better. For his career, they do climb slightly, but bear in mind in the NL, the first two trips through the lineup mean he got to face pitchers for approximately 10% of his hitters. And even then, the SLG jumps up about .070 and he allowed 75% as many home runs to hitters third time through in roughly 50% of the plate appearances. The reduced workload and reduced exposure helping him is really not a surprise. Bu the problem with this strategy is if the Sox try to limit their SP to 5IP every game, they will need 4 IP from their bullpen. And that is getting dangerously close to a 750-700 IP split between the to roles that I don't think the Sox relievers are very ready for...
  3. notin
    The problem is that it actually looks like that part of the analytics is actually working. When was the last time Mike Wacha had a stretch like this? Yet he spent his whole career pitching until trouble, and the numbers weren’t as good. So either he suddenly get a helluva better in his 30s or the Sox were right about how to handle Wacha, or they got very lucky. Ditto with Hill. And Whitlock…
  4. notin
    The common sense aspect isn’t so simple. Is it better to wait until they fail or pull them out before they fail? Maybe not facing lineups the third time is a big, big part of the success of the rotation. Not like Wacha and Hill were Cy Young candidates last year…
  5. notin
    For some perspective, Matt Barnes also fits that description…
  6. notin
    Not your name?
  7. notin
    I am starting to think a 2 run lead is insurmountable…
  8. notin
    Yeah but since it’s usually blisters on hits fingers, he has the tendons of a 25yo. Hopefully not literally. Especially not of they’re in a box in his crawl space…
  9. notin
    Remember Jen Rich Hill came here and made 4 starts in a row with ungodly effectiveness and bosoxmal kept insisting the Sox needed to re-sign him and I kept thinking “not at his (Hill’s) age.” That was 7 years ago…
  10. notin
    I’ve seen people die on dumber ones…
  11. notin
    I’d be fine with Whitlock starting and Houck closing. But this idiotic strategy of using Houck only on days Hill pitches and (potentially) pulling Hill before a runner even gets into scoring position seems like a waste of Houck and Hill. Sure Hill is 42. But he isn’t dead. He has a long injury history, but again, he’s 42. Let him pitch. You don’t need to make sure you don’t prematurely end his career by overuse at this point..
  12. notin
    It is. But if you’re playing “18 hitters max,” you’re emphasizing a bullpen game. 10 years ago, teams expected 900-1000 IP from starters and 500-600 from the bullpen. But now it seems to be getting 700-800 from each. The notion of a pitcher being “banished to the bullpen” is long gone because it’s harder to hide ineffectivity there than it used to be…
  13. notin
    I’m sure Whitlock’s history will keep his innings down, but having Houck handle the 9th and Whitlock as a 3-9 out setup guy would be the best solution for this year. Give Seabold a crack at facing the first 18 hitters for a bit…
  14. notin
    The most egregious example is the 1993 Giants, who won an incredible 103 games and missed the postseason while the 97 win Phillies got to continue…
  15. notin
    Even if they keep Whitlock in the rotation, why not Houck? When was the last time Houck pitched in a game not started by Rich Hill?
  16. notin
    Cora has some relievers who are good. He just doesn’t know who they are…
  17. notin
    So I thought Houck was in the bullpen. Why isn’t he the guy facing Trout and Ohtani in the ninth?
  18. notin
    The real issue was with Dalbec hitting. He’s not exactly known for his contact
  19. notin
    Oh good. Extra innings. Those have worked out well so far…
  20. notin
    While I see your point, it also makes September baseball relevant in more cities. That is a big deal even if you ignore the economic impact…
  21. notin
    Nope. But we did get Franchy…
  22. notin
    That was his point. Hidden behind all that sarcasm and time travel sci fi…
  23. notin
    Exactly. A lot of people can’t say that…
  24. notin
    As much as I like Bradley, I could understand benching him to give Duran a shot…
  25. notin
    I am ok giving Duran another chance. He’s already on the 40 man and he’s getting older…
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