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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. Bringing in Kimbrel was the right move there. If you want to get out of that situation, you use the pitcher most likely to get the job done. The only problem was that Kimbrel sucked. I didn't even mind the use of Barnes to start the inning. He was facing the bottom of the order. If he can't be trusted to handle the opposition's weaker hitters, what is his role?
  2. Really it also depends on the willingness of the Sox to take on money, right? And Ross is a complete wild card after missing so much time. If he follows the same career trajectory as his brother, he may not have it so easy returning to prior levels of production...
  3. Maybe not, but then Devin Mesoraco (-0.2 fWAR in the past 3 seasons) was enough to get Matt Harvey (5.4 fWAR in the past 3 seasons).. Ross is good, but his value itself is hurt by his missed time. When the season starts in 2019, he will have not pitched for a season and a half. And he will be eligible for arbitration, putting his salary maybe around $5-6mill. The Nationals may or may not trade Ross, and might get better offers than Swihart. But right now, Ross is the less risky of the two, due to his combination of health and potential salary...
  4. Neither Barnes nor Hembree is much more than an average reliever. If the Sox want to depend on their bullpen - a necessity in today's game - they need more reliable arms in there than just Kimbrel, Kelly and Smith...
  5. If you need to bring in Kimbrel to face the 9th place hitter, it does speak volumes about Barnes...
  6. Swihart should have been dealt in ST when teams were interested. Now, on the other hand, Deven Mesoraco, who has played 115 games in the past 4 seasons combined, was just dealt for Matt Harvey, in a rare trade where Harvey would be considered the durable guy. While Harvey isn't much, it does leave some hope that some team might be interested in Swihart. Maybe he, too, can fetch a talented pitcher who can't stay on the field. Swihart for Joe Ross?
  7. A healthy Price would be a very good thing. But in the event that he is going to be an oft-injured pitcher with a lot of nagging injuries here and there, I wonder (re: doubt) if the Sox would consider moving him to the closer role for the remainder of his deal after Kimbrel departs. Certainly he is overpaid for the role. But he is also overpaid for a guy with an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP of 1.40. He will be tough to replace in the rotation. In theory. Honestly, how much would it cost to replace his 0.5 fWAR through 7 starts? Jason Hammel is doing it right now for an AAV of less than a quarter of Price's cost...
  8. There is how we view things differently. I was hoping he would pitch well and opt out. In no way was he going to be worth that kind of money for the entire 7 years at his age. Not sure any pitcher has even been that good for that long at his age. The opt out was the only saving grace to that potential albatross. Take the 3 good years and wish him luck. But the combination of his health, his performance and the downturn of the free agent market last year have made his return as certain as death and taxes...
  9. Pomeranz isn't exactly making himself a great trade chip. He is doing his best, but he may not be 100%. ERod isn't exactly a bastion of health either. Really, the off-season plan of adding no pitching to the entire organization still looks beyond questionable to me. On the bright side, there are still pitchers available on the free agent market, but the Sox would have to allow them to get in some sort of shape...
  10. Kimbrel has been a little rocky lately. In his last 8 outings, he has an ERA of 4.91 (which doesn't count 2 inherited runners scoring last night) and given up 3 home runs. The ERA looks unimpressive, but it does only span 7.1 IP. However, the 3 home runs is somewhat alarming for a pitcher who has never given up more than 6 in a season. Right now, he is on pace to double that number...
  11. But even if that is the case, it only works out if Price is able to return and be somewhat effective. Even if the insurance covers the contract, that only affects John Henry's bank account, and probably not by all that much percentage-wise. Price still counts against the luxury tax thresholds regardless of who signs the checks, and his contract limits the Sox' ability to replace him when he is unavailable to pitch. Or to upgrade anywhere else and possibly to retain key younger players...
  12. The opt out clause was the only positive to the deal. While it did mean that they would lose Price if he was effective for 3 years, it also mitigated the risk of an entire 7 year contract. We only have Sale for 3 seasons, and he is younger than Price. So only having Price for 3 seasons would probaby have been a good thing. The Price deal would have been fantastic if Price stayed healthy and pitched like he has been capable for the past 2 seasons. But as of now, the opt out clause is completely irrelevant and has no positive or negative repercussions. Unless for some reason Price actually chooses to opt out anyway, although his agent will definitely be screaming at him not to. (And since he hired his agent for the advice he gets on these matters, he is not likely to ignore it.).
  13. Based pn the premise that athleticism can be measured by potential bating average?
  14. So because he said they can't win, they haven't been winning? I would disagree with the premise from the outset. It was a sweeping generalization that took into account nothing else about the team...
  15. No. Mesoraco was acquired to fill the DL slot normally occupied by Matt Harvey...
  16. And yet the Sox have won over 70% of their games with that exact scenario...
  17. That saying really needs to be modified to "Practice makes progress!"
  18. I wouldn't have made the Kimbrel deal. I admit it. Not because I don't like Kimbrel as a pitcher, but because I would have preferred the team focus on building the rotation from something. I would have preferred to look for a closer (rarely the top need of a last place team) in free agency, avoided Price and his 7 year deal, and focused on finding a starter via trade. Not sure what starters would be available for Margot, Guerra, Allen and Asuaje. But both Margot (BA 56, BP 14) and Guerra (BA 52, BP 56) were concensus top 100 prospects at the time, and were excellent bargaining chips. Allen and Asuaje were both decent additions, as well...
  19. I would be surprised if the failure rate was higher among traded prospects vs. those who were retained...
  20. It also didn't work in Detroit, but I think he may have dealt better prospects from the Boston system...
  21. Agreed he should be benched more frequently if he struggles. But I'm not going to worry about that yet. Personally I don't think he is capable physically of playing in the field enough for the option to vest...
  22. While Dontrelle Willis did not pan out, the price he gave up for Cabrera alone (Maybin and Miller) was easily worth it for the Tigers, especially since Miller took a long time to pan out. And I'm not so sure Dontrelle Willis, who had 3 yrs $29mill left on his deal, really upped the ante all that much.
  23. Most GMs do. Most prospects underachieve.
  24. No it isn't. It really doesn't work that way. Other teams employ scouts and talent evaluators. While every team may value certain skills and tools differently, they make decisions based on their own internal evaluations, not on Dombrowski's sales pitch. (Agents, on the other hand, pump up player's value all the time.) All Dombrowski can do is determine who is available in the right deal. If Dombrowski was able to pump up the value of the Sox prospects, why does he keep dealing away the good ones?
  25. OK you are making it sound like Sox top 5 prospects - Groome, Chavis, Mata, Houck and Travis - are used cars and Dombrowski can spin up their value. Of those 5, only Travis is close to MLB, and he has to pump up his own statistical portfolio before any one is interested. Outside of his minimum wage price tag, he doesn't look much like anything special in MLB. Every team has a Sam Travis in their system already. Chavis was a guy a tagged to be good trade bait for a variety of reasons. But he's not marketable at all. Groome is the one guy the Sox have who is worthwhile in a deal. His distance from MLB is a huge factor, but he is an upside potential player. Of course, it would help his case a lot if he would actually pitch at some point in his career. 62IP across 2+ seasons isn't going to entice anyone, regardless of what the GM says. Mata and Houck need to get bettrer. Granted, both are still in A-ball, but these two guys have combined to walk 37 hitters in 45 innings!! Like with Travis, players like these two may not be so rare or on anyne's wish list. The Sox can probably swing deals for a reliever or some average help. In no way can they add any sort of big name quality player. And packaging multiple prospects won't help. When it comes to trading, four quarters do not equal a dollar. Yes, there will always be a stream of players coming up through the ranks. This does not guarantee any of them will ever be among the best 750 players in the world. Of course, a big part of the reason is that the Sox did unload a lot of farm system parts in a relatively short span, acquiring Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Sale. Hopefully these acquisitions negate the need to add any bigger arms...
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