notin
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Everything posted by notin
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Smith was a waste, but what prospects did the Sox give up there? If Thornburg can rebound, he could be a very important part of 2019...
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Well if you don’t add Corbin, you’re going to f*** up my entry in the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest....
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While possible, they do have Austin Barnes, who fits type athletic mold of Realmuto. But he isn’t the all around player JT is...
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The If the Sox sign Eovaldi, will they spend on a reliever? And as they lost about 125 IP from the pen that needs to be replaced, what do they have to trade for another one? One of these relievers will likely be the closer. I think their trade chips include Chavis, Johnson and a catcher (not Leon; he adds nothing to a trade). Reportedly the Sox are working Swihart out as s catcher. This might be to increase his trade appeal, or to make Vazquez available. There seem to be a lot of teams that need catchers right now, and Realmuto and Ramos can only fill two voids (really one, as Miami will need a catcher once they trade Realmuto)...
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Me either. He hits like a pitcher and is a utility infielder who can't play short. Lin is a much better alternative... -
And I think his post-season heroics are ones people are speculating he can maintain for 4 years. He' a good pitcher, but in his case the risk might outweigh how good he is. If he comes back, I hope it's a short deal that doesn't prohibit keeping other players. And really, as much as I have said it would be a bad idea to bring back Kimbrel, this team lost like 128 innings from the bullpen that someone needs to be able to pitch...
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's easy to name several infielders who were injured in the course of a double play. Not so easy to name a few first baseman who were injured in collisions... -
That's a big deal for the Yankees. On the bright side, losing Sheffield makes it that much harder for them to get Kluber...
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Because it is the easiest defensive position to play. They get moved there to limit the damage they do defensively while keeping their bats in the lineup. The majority of the chances a first baseman has are throws hat were intended for him to catch. No other position has that advantage, except maybe catcher. But catcher is a whole completely different animal... -
While we will never know how many teams contacted Boras about JD, fabricating mystery teams in order to prove your point about DD’s masterful negotiations really doesn’t work. The situation with Eovaldi is already different as 8 teams have reportedly gone public with their interest in him. So the whole strategy that DD used to get Martinez on a good deal by waiting out Boras until the price came down already won’t work. JD signed very late last year, which is the typical result from players with limited or less than expected interest. Eovaldi is already a hot commodity and could easily be among the first to sign. Maybe he does come back to Boston. But if he doesn’t, I can understand why DD would pass. It looks like the asking price is too much for the risk...
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He’s always had that blazing fastball. But even with better pitches, how good do people think he is? If he wasn’t on the Sox last year, would fans really want to be all in on a SP coming off a season of 111 IP with an ERA+ of 112 for 4 years $60mill? If so, what’s the going rate for Trevor Cahill, whose coming off a season of 110 IP with an ERA+ of 109? Those results are practically identical.
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I’m not as anti-Moreland as you. But you’re more pro-Marco Hernandez than me, so it evens out... -
So... one game sample size? Come on. Kershaw also threw 161 IP last year with better results. Eovaldi has topped 161 IP one time in 8 years...
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Fellow free agent Trevor Cahill has 1.9 fWAR in 105 IP and no one is hinting at a 4 year $60mill deal for him...
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I think assuming he will be “great” might be a reach. His ERA+ over the last 3 years is 99, which makes him average for that timeframe. The Mariners recently released Erasmo Ramirez, whose ERA+ is 91 for those same season. Yet Ramirez was released earlier this off-season and no one is anticipating he will get $60mill over the next 4 years. Tanner Roark has an ERA+ up around 110 in those same seasons and MLBTR lists him as a non-tender candidate...
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So it’s slightly disproportionate. But even then, he is barely better than Nunez when Nunez is healthy. So the entire plan of shifting Betts would mean downgrading 2 positions defensively in order to play one player who represents a 2% increase offensively. Not worth it IMO... -
Or the Sox could extend Porcello, and then Porcello replaces Porcello...
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The one asset that everyone likes about Porcello is his durability. In that respect, Eovaldi is no Porcello...
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Actually the problem JD had was a lack of interest, and Boston was the only team that seemed to get any coverage for negotiating with him. That the Yankees and Dodgers basically sat out of the free agent market was probably a big factor. Eovaldi, on the other hand, is reportedly already drawing a lot of interest per MLBTR. He’s probably helped by the Dodgers and Yankees getting back invoved and by being one of the better RHSP options available. Several teams will withdraw at some point for financial reasons or Eovaldi’s health history ( or more likely, a combination of the two). But if enough stay interested, it’s the exact opposite of JDM last year....
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Even if the Sox do believe, how does Eovaldi getting a clean bill of health differ from every other pitcher ever to have TJ surgery and then resume pitching? Has there ever been a doctor ever who said “he can return to pitching now, as long as he learn to throw left-handed”? So far, the most successful starting pitcher after two TJs appears to be Chris Capuano, who was hardly the same after as he was before. It’s a small list, and maybe Eovaldi is the first guy to completely put it all behind him. Maybe the procedure is better now. But then, maybe not. And history is not something that works in Eovaldi’s favor here...
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It’s pretty big money for a starter who has averaged less than 80 IP for the last 3 years...
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
And really, how much is an upgrade from Nunez to Pearce? Pearce’s numbers are somewhat skewed by playing a disproportionate number of games against LHP, which wouldn’t be that case if he was a DH full time. But if you look at a healthy Nunez and Pearce from 2015-2017, they’re very equal hitters In that stretch, Pearce’s OPS+ was 108 and Nunez had a 106. Is that the offensive upgrade worth these radical changes? And the Sox have reportedly attempted to extend Betts multiple times, but Betts has had no interest. And I don’t blame him at all despite wishing he would sign one... -
If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I doubt the Sox go after anyone to high end like LeMahieu since Pedroia owed $40mill for the next 3 years and he gets every chance to regain his position. As he missed all of 2018 save a couple games, there are reasons to be concerned. But I also think the Sox front office has a better understanding of his health than any of us and will address the position if they feel it needs addressing. After all, there is a chance he actually plays next season. And if he does remain status quo, it probably gets addressed mid season like this year. Starlin Castro, for example, figures to be available. This off-season, the Sox probably address the situation with a minor league contract like they did last year with Brandon Phillips. Phillips again is a candidate for that, along with some aforementioned names like Miller and Reyes... -
But at what point before the Sox commit $60mill to retain him do they look at Eovaldi and think “his career really hasn’t been that great to date.” Do you think similar careers like Kevin Gausman or Dillon Gee or Brian Lawrence ever merited this type of deal?
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If we really have problems at second next year, remember this:
notin replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Betts isn’t refusing extensions because he’s playing RF, a position that is enhancing his value what with all the Gold Gloves and that MVP award. So now the solution is to move Benintendi and his weaker throwing arm to RF and move the DH to LF? You’re selling point was supposed to be adding a better RF but really, you want to add a better DH while downgrading both corner outfield spots? This plan looks worse with every iteration. So in this scenario, whose the DH? If the Sox want to upgrade 2b, the easiest thing to do is sign someone like Dozier or Murphy or Le Mahieu or Forsythe or Kinsler or Walker or Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera. Heck Jose Reyes was a 2.0 fWAR player as recently as 2017 and can probably be had dirt cheap. Brad Miller is also dirt cheap and was a 30 hitter as recently as 2017. This is not the off-season to fix what isn’t broken elsewhere. Not with so many 2b options right there for the taking...
